A deeper dive into Buffalo Bills’ first-half woes against Tennessee Titans in Week 8

It was the best of times; it was the worst of times. It was the age of play-calling wisdom, it was the age of coaching foolishness, it was the epoch of disbelief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was hopefully the season of light.

At the risk of modifying too much of Charles Dickens’ seminal work “A Tale of Two Cities” — I will simply note that it was a tale of two halves for the Buffalo Bills against the Tennessee Titans on Sunday afternoon. The Bills stumbled their way to a 10-0 deficit early in the game, with their offense mustering a pitiful three consecutive three-and-outs before a broken play to Keon Coleman help set up their only touchdown of the half.

And then the second half happened. The Titans (in what can only be described as a hilarious ode to their namesake film) didn’t score another point. Buffalo, on the other hand, scored 27 of their 34 total points. Quarterback and current MVP candidate Josh Allen threw for 258 yards in the second half after throwing for just 65 yards while going 4-of-11 in the opening two stanzas.

So what happened?

Allen took the the podium and said on two occasions that “first- and second-down efficiency” was a key contributor to the rough start and that he had to do a better job cleaning it up and getting the team into the right plays.

With all due respect to every single player and coach in the NFL, we can’t really trust what they say at a press conference without any Ronald Reagan-esque follow-up verification. So let’s do just that.

We’re going to dive into all the offensive play results in the first half throughout the game to see if it really is as simple as not being effective on early downs as a main cause of the offensively slow start for the team. We’ll manually track success rate (defined as “40% of the necessary yards for a conversion on first down, 60% of the necessary yards for conversion on second down, and a conversion on third/fourth downs”):

First drive

1st & 10 — James Cook run over the left guard for five yards. (SUCCESS)

2nd & 5 — James Cook run up the middle for four yards. (SUCCESS)

3rd & 1 — Josh Allen throws to Amari Cooper; dropped pass. (FAIL)

Second drive

1st and 10 — Josh Allen out route to Dawson Knox; complete, gain of five. (SUCCESS)

Penalty on left tackle Dion Dawkins for a false start.

2nd and 10 — Josh Allen incomplete short pass to Curtis Samuel; deflected at the line. (FAIL)

3rd and 10 — Josh Allen throws deep to Keon Coleman during a scramble. (FAIL)

Third drive

1st and 10 — James Cook rush over left guard for 5 yards. (SUCCESS)

2nd and 5 — James Cook stuffed in a run up the middle for -1 yards. (FAIL)

3rd and 5 — Josh Allen threw incomplete to Mack Hollins on a deep dig route. (FAIL)

Fourth drive

1st & 10 — Josh Allen completes a short flare pass to Khalil Shakir for 6 yards. (SUCCESS)

2nd & 4 — Josh Allen passes to Keon Coleman on a scramble play for 44 yards. (SUCCESS)

1st & 10 — James Cook rush out of the shotgun for 11 yards and a touchdown. (SUCCESS)

Fifth drive

1st & 10 — Ray Davis rushes up the middle for no gain. (FAIL)

2nd & 10 — Josh Allen passes to Dalton Kincaid on a slant for 10 yards. (SUCCESS)

1st & 10 — Josh Allen sacked for a loss of eight yards. (FAIL)

2nd & 18 — Josh Allen incomplete pass too wide for Dalton Kincaid. (FAIL)

3rd & 18 — Dig route too wide for Dawson Knox. (FAIL)

Sixth drive

1st & 10 — James Cook runs over right guard for two yards. (FAIL)

2nd & 8 — Josh Allen throws incomplete into traffic intended for Kincaid. (FAIL)

3rd & 8 — Allen scrambled and picks up 7 yards. (FAIL)

Overall, the Bills ran 20 plays in the first half. Of those 20 plays, eight were successful (based on our established definition above). That calculates out at an even 40% offensive success rate. For perspective, the worst-ranked team in the NFL in offensive success rate is the Cleveland Browns at 34%. The best offense in the same metric sits at 51.3% (Kansas City Chiefs).

On just first and second downs, the Bills ran 15 plays. Of those 15 plays, eight were successful (every single successful play the Bills ran in the first half was on first or second down). That gives them a first- and second-down success rate of 53.3%. The number-one spot in the league in first- and second-down success rate is a tie between the Detroit Lions and the Washington Commanders at 52.8%. The worst team in the NFL using that same metric is once again the Cleveland Browns, with a mark of 33.7%.

The Bills’ third-down success rate in the first half, as mentioned above, was zero.

On the first drive, Allen made the right read and a good throw and Amari Cooper dropped the ball on third down. One the second drive, Allen passed up both running for the first and tight end Dalton Kincaid on a drag route to throw a deep contested-catch opportunity to wide receiver Keon Coleman on third down.

For drive three, he threw a heater to wide receiver Mack Hollins on a dig when Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid gave him the choice of drag routes within a yard or two of the sticks. Better protection on the fifth drive probably would have helped the team convert by either allowing Allen to get to his backside where wide receiver Khalil Shakir was open or help him not get sacked in the first place.

The margins in the NFL are incredibly slim. But the Bills offense was good enough on first and second down in the first half to come away with more than seven points and 65 passing yards.

As noted above, the Kansas City Chiefs lead the NFL in offensive success rate. It’s no coincidence that quarterback Patrick Mahomes has a career-low average distance of target of 6.1 yards. Taking the short stuff on third down and moving the sticks could have changed the narrative of this football game meaningfully.

All of Bills Mafia is surely pleased with the final score, but we’d also like to get there with a little less heartburn if it’s not too much trouble.

...and that’s the way the cookie crumbles. I’m Bruce Nolan with Buffalo Rumblings. You can find me on Twitter and Instagram @BruceExclusive and look for new episodes of “The Bruce Exclusive” every Thursday on the Rumblings Cast Network — see more in my LinkTree!

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