Fantasy Football Defense (DST) Week 8 Rankings and Streamers

After two straight really strong weeks, we were bound to have a bit of a step back, so hitting on five of the top 10 defenses in Week 7 isn’t such a bad week. Denver, Buffalo, and Minnesota were all inside the top five, so having them each finish in double digits was nice, and we hit on both the Rams and Colts as back-half of the top 10 plays, which covered for our misses on the Chargers and Packers.

Yet, the Packers still scored five points, and the success of the Vikings furthers this truth for me that I’d rather trust an elite defense in a bad matchup than roll the dice on a streamer in a plus matchup. All of Minnesota, Detroit, and Green Bay were dinged this week for matchups, but Minnesota had 11 points, Detroit had six points, and the Packers five points, so those are all usable performances that didn’t hurt you. Five or six points won’t win you a week, but you save waiver money or the spot on the bench you’d need to stash a streamer and still get a usable performance. All of the top five last week scored defensive touchdowns, but it’s so hard to count on week after week, so I’d rather keep the safe floor of an elite defense than play a defense and cross my fingers for one big play to carry me.

That dilemma won’t be as impactful this week with so many good defenses having good matchups, but you’ll have some people thinking about playing mediocre or bad defenses because of all the injuries we had on offense to players like Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Mike Evans, Jayden Daniels, Chris Godwin, and more.

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As a final reminder, what you’ll get each week in this article is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. Tier One will the my “elite” plays of the week. Tier Two will be plays that I consider strong, while Tier Three will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. Tier Four will be deep-league targets, and Tier Five will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.

Each week, I’ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are.

2024 SEASON SUCCESS RATE (Percentage of top 10 defenses correctly predicted)

WEEK 7: 5-5

SEASON-LONG: 38-32 (54.3%)

BOD Formula and Philosophy

If you’ve read my earlier articles then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” While opponents factor into my rankings, I don’t want to elevate a bad or mediocre defense simply because of a matchup.

To do that, I’ve utilized the following formula:

((PFF PASS RUSH PRODUCTION x 2) + FORCED INCOMPLETE RATE + TACKLES FOR LOSS/GAME + (TURNOVER RATE x 2))

DIVIDED BY

(EPA RATE ALLOWED + OPPONENT SCORING RATE X 1.5)

With all of that out of the way, how do these defenses rank for Week 8?

WEEK 8

Rank Tier One DSTs Opponent BOD RANKING 1 Denver Broncos vs CAR 2 2 Detroit Lions vs TEN 5 3 Minnesota Vikings at LAR 2

We’re going back to the Broncos as my top defense of the week after they delivered against the Saints in Week 7. Next up is the Panthers, who give up the 8th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses. There’s also a chance that the Panthers will choose to rest a banged-up Diontae Johnson, who they are rumored to be looking to trade at some point this season. The Broncos should get Patrick Surtain back after he missed a week with a concussion, and this is a defense that ranks 1st in PFF’s Pass Rush production grade, 2nd in tackles for a loss or no gain per game, 4th in opponent’s scoring rate, and 5th in explosive play rate allowed. They seem like the safest bet of the week to me.

I know we expected the Lions to struggle after the tough injuries to Aidan Hutchinson and Kyle Peko, but they did record four sacks and a turnover against the Vikings last week, so there are still playmakers here. They now get a matchup against a Titans offense that gives up the most fantasy points to opposing defenses. Even with Mason Rudolph at quarterback last week, the Titans scored 10 points, allowed three sacks, turned the ball over twice, and gained 290 total yards. This is just not a good offense, and even a short-handed Lions defense is going to take advantage of that.

The Vikings continue to be discounted, and I just don’t truly understand it. They have been elite all season, and we’re not ranking them as such. This week they get a Rams team that allows the 9th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses, and I know they could get Cooper Kupp back, but it just doesn’t matter much to me. On the season, the Vikings rank 2nd in opponent’s scoring rate, 2nd in turnover rate, and 3rd in sacks. Maybe I’d move them down into Tier 2 if Kupp were for sure back, but I doubt it.

Rank Tier Two DSTs BOD

RANKING 4 Pittsburgh Steelers vs NYG 7 5 Kansas City Chiefs at LV 11 6 Los Angeles Chargers vs NO 4 7 Baltimore Ravens at CLE 25 8 Buffalo Bills at SEA 9 9 New York Jets at NE 14

The Steelers just beat one New York/New Jersey team and now get to play the one with the worse offense. On the season, the Giants give up the 6th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses. Their offensive line is really struggling, and the loss of left tackle Andrew Thomas was a big one. The Steelers’ pass rush hasn’t been as impactful as we’ve seen in the past, but they do still have T.J. Watt and a defense that ranks 3rd in opponent’s scoring rate, 4th in turnover rate, and 12th in tackles for a loss or no gain per game. I expect another strong outing this week.

The Chiefs have been a great real-life defense this season, but have averaged just seven fantasy points per game over the last month. They rank 9th in forced incompletion rate, 13th in opponent’s scoring rate, 14th in turnover rate, and 15th in pass rush production grade, but they get the benefit of a tremendous matchup against a Raiders team that allows the 2nd-most fantasy points to opposing defenses on the year. I don’t think this game will be close at all, and so I’m happy to roll the Chiefs out in Week 8.

The Chargers did not deliver against Arizona on Monday night as they continued to play without Joey Bosa and Asante Samuel Jr. I have some optimism that Bosa could return this week, but this is more about a strong matchup against a Saints offense that allows the 7th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses. We know Rashid Shaheed is out for the season, and there is some talk that Derek Carr could miss another week as well. Considering the Chargers lead the NFL in opponent’s scoring rate and are 9th in turnover rate, I like them as a safe option against a banged-up Saints team. If it seems like Carr is trending toward playing, I may move the Chargers down a few spots.

Much of this ranking is due to the Ravens playing a Browns team that gives up the 3rd-most fantasy points to opposing defenses. We likely get Jamies Winston at quarterback with Deshaun Watson out, and while that may lead to more yardage and points for the Browns offense since Watson has been one of the worst quarterbacks in football this year, we also know that Jameis is prone to some bad throws and turnovers. This is also a Browns offense without Amari Cooper after trading him to the Bills last week. That being said, the Ravens defense has struggled this year. They rank 22nd in pass rush production grade, 24th in opponent’s scoring rate, and 24th in turnover rate. Their secondary has been a bit of a concern this season, but I’m just not sure this is the week it really matters.

The Bills are getting healthier on defense and will now face a Seahawks offense that figures to be without DK Metcalf. The Bills are super vulnerable on the ground, which is still a concern against Kenneth Walker, but they’re also 3rd in tackles for a loss or no gain per game, 7th in opponent’s scoring rate, and 8th in turnover rate. Terrel Bernard did suffer an ankle injury on Sunday, so that’s a situation to monitor because he is crucial for this run defense.

So much is wrong with the Jets that it feels hard to recommend playing them, but they also face a Patriots team that could be the worst in the NFL. New England gives up the 5th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses, and even though Drake Maye is better than Jacoby Brissett, the Patriots gained just 295 total yards and allowed two sacks to a Jaguars defense that had looked atrocious before this weekend. The Jets absolutely must win this game to keep any playoff hopes alive, so I expect a strong performance this weekend.

10 San Francisco 49ers vs DAL 8 11 Green Bay Packers at JAX 6 12 Chicago Bears at WAS 3 13 Los Angeles Rams vs MIN 20 14 Cincinnati Bengals vs PHI 22 15 Washington Commanders vs CHI 21 16 Miami Dolphins vs ARI 13 17 Houston Texans vs IND 10 18 Tampa Bay Bucs vs ATL 18

Did you know the Cowboys give up the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses? This is not the dynamic offense we’re used to seeing, which is good news for a reeling 49ers team that still has a solid defense. The 49ers have allowed more points than we’re used to this year, but they rank 2nd in forced incompletion rate, 7th in turnover rate, and 10th in pass rush production grade. I still expect a solid game against this Cowboys offense, but if we get word that Deebo Samuel is also out, I may move them down a couple of spots because the offense could put the defense in some bad spots.

The Packers and Bears are both strong defenses that we need to consider playing even in bad matchups. The Packers matchup is better on the surface, but the Jaguars give up the 21st-most fantasy points to opposing defenses, so they have been bad in real life but not an offense we need to target with our fantasy defenses. Meanwhile, Washington gives up the 2nd-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses, so they are outright a bad matchup. If Jayden Daniels were to miss then I would likely leapfrog the Bears into the back of Tier 2.

Meanwhile, the Commanders have a decent matchup against this Bears offense that gives up the 15th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses. The Bears’ offense has been improving, but they rank 27th in sack rate allowed, which could be an issue since the Commanders rank 8th in pass rush production grade. I don’t love the Commanders as a play, but I can see it in deeper formats, as long as Jayden Daniels plays which will force the Bears to pass to keep up.

Obviously, this Rams ranking means they’re more of a deeper-league option, but there seems to be a lot of consensus amongst the top 10 defenses this week. Right now, the Rams are 6th in PFF’s Pass Rush Production grade, 12th in turnover rate, and are averaging 10 fantasy points per game over the last four weeks. The Vikings are a good offense, but they also give up the 13th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses, so they’re not an offense we need to avoid. The Vikings offense ranks 23rd in turnover rate and 30th in sack rate allowed, so the Rams have some avenues to put up solid fantasy points to make them deep league relevant.

I’m not sure I want to play the Texans in any format. The Colts give up the 6th-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses this season. They have the 4th-best sack rate allowed on offense and are middle of the pack in both turnover rate and points scored. That means the Texans will need turnovers to really post a big score here, but they rank 12th in opponents scoring rate and 15th in turnover rate this season. I think they can give you a small handful of points and you can certainly play them in a deeper format if they’re already on your roster, but I just don’t see much upside here.

Rank Tier Four DSTs BOD RANKING 19 Arizona Cardinals at MIA 24 20 Atlanta Falcons at TB 30 21 New York Giants at PIT 12 22 New Orleans Saints at LAC 17 23 Dallas Cowboys at SF 26 24 Seattle Seahawks vs BUF 15

I do expect Tua Tagovailoa to return this week so that factors into my rankings of the Cardinals. This Falcons and Cowboys rankings are also assuming both Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel don’t play. Their defenses have just been that bad this season for fantasy purposes, averaging five fantasy points per game or less over the last five weeks.

Rank Tier Five DSTs BOD RANKING 25 New England Patriots vs NYJ 28 26 Indianapolis Colts at HOU 19 27 Cleveland Browns vs BAL 16 28 Philadelphia Eagles at CIN 23 29 Las Vegas Raiders vs KC 27 30 Tennessee Titans at DET 29 31 Jacksonville Jaguars vs GB 31 32 Carolina Panthers vs DEN 32

Tier 5 each week will be defenses that I don’t think anybody should play outside of the deepest formats.

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