Australian Open Semifinal Predictions: Swiatek vs Keys

The first Slam of this season winds down as we enter the business end of the second week of the 2025 Australian Open. No. 2 seed Iga Swiatek squares off against No. 19 seed Madison Keys in what should be an incredible battle between two of the best baseliners in the world. Both are seeking their first appearance in an Australian Open final.

As always, we at LWOT provide our roundtable preview and prediction for this bout. A separate article features Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa. Predicting this match are Yesh Ginsburg, Ateet Shrivastava, Damian Kust, Ilemona Onekutu, Steen Kirby, and Shane Black. But who will advance to the final?

Australian Open Women’s Semifinal Predictions

Iga Swiatek vs Madison Keys

Yesh

Madison Keys is one of the few players who can match Iga Swiatek from the baseline. The American both has the movement and the firepower necessary to beat Swiatek at her own game. And Keys is honestly more adaptable than the Pole under pressure. It will take her absolute best, but I’m sensing an upset here.

Prediction: Keys in 3

Ateet

The Australian Open has been the most consistent Slam for Madison Keys and she is once again in the semifinals. This will be Swiatek’s first big test as both players will look to make their first Australian Open final. Swiatek leads the head-to-head, but it’s level on hard courts. Keys has the power and serve to win this, but she will have to be extra consistent against Swiatek’s retrieving skills. The second serve will play a key role in this matchup; whoever defends it better should have the upper hand. I am going with the upset.

Prediction: Keys in 3

Damian

Keys has been really consistent in Slams over the years but usually doesn’t deliver in these biggest matches. But at least she has a playstyle that can trouble Swiatek with her elite aggressive ball-striking. She’ll be crushing the second-serve returns too. But with how strong the Pole’s timing as been all event, we know Keys would have to be executing her combinations perfectly here. Swiatek has the athletic ability and defensive skills to extend the points, plus they can also engage with the American in a hitting contest.

Prediction: Swiatek in 3

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Ilemona

Iga Swiatek’s consistency and 4-1 head-to-head edge make her the favorite against Madison Keys, whose power and confidence are thriving in Melbourne. Keys must dictate with aggression, but Swiatek’s defense and adaptability could give her the edge in a tight contest.

Prediction: Swiatek in 2

Steen

Swiatek won both meetings last year and has rolled through all the opposition thus far, not dropping a set. Keys, the veteran player, is looking to return to the top 10 but has already played two three-setters this week, including the close victory over Svitolina in the quarterfinals. Swiatek has never won the Australian Open, but this looks as good of a time as any, Swiatek will reach her maiden final in Melbourne.

Prediction: Swiatek in 2

Shane

Iga Swiatek has looked dominant as she hunts for her first Australian Open title. The Pole has dropped just seven games over her last four matches and has been firing on all cylinders from the baseline. American Madison Keys has what it takes to puncture Swiatek from the baseline. If she matches consistency with her power, expect Keys to win her fair share of baseline exchanges. However, Swiatek is playing some of the best hardcourt tennis of her career and is poised to make it to her first final in Melbourne.

Prediction: Swiatek in 3

Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey – Imagn Images

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