£525m Liverpool hypothesis speaks volumes about FSG’s Alexander Isak end-game, ‘I assure you…’

If this transfer pantomime for the ages ends with Alexander Isak at Anfield, there is a good chance that the total value of the deal will eclipse the sum FSG paid to buy Liverpool – the entire club – in 2010.

Fenway Sports Group paid about £300m to acquire 100 per cent control of Liverpool 15 years ago, also clearing the club’s debts once the takeover from Tom Hicks and George Gillett was complete.

Today, Liverpool are reportedly ready to submit a bid worth £130m before add-ons for Alexander Isak. And Newcastle United’s imminent capture of Nick Woltemade from Stuttgart could grease the wheels for Liverpool’s busy dealmakers.

Isak’s weekly wage at Anfield would be at least £300,000, which equates to almost £80m over the course of a five-year deal. Add in National Insurance, bonuses, image rights and other provisions and the total outlay will – at a very conservative estimate – be closer to £110m.

Photo by Robbie Jay Barratt – AMA/Getty Images

A 10 per cent agent fee, a four per cent Premier League transfer levy, and five per cent FIFA-mandated solidary payment to Isak’s former clubs increase the total value by another £25m.

If the 25-year-old lives up to his vaunted potential, add-ons could quite conceivably take Liverpool’s outlay towards that £300m mark.

These are dizzying numbers, especially when compared to where football finance was when FSG bought the club.

Liverpool’s annual wage bill when John Henry, Tom Werner and the rest of Fenway’s top brass pitched up on Merseyside in 2010 was £114m. Their turnover at the time was £185m.

Fast-forward 15 years and Liverpool’s revenue for 2024-25 is expected to be confirmed at over £700m once their accounts are released next February, while wages will surpass £400m. According to most analysis, the club’s enterprise value has risen even quicker. Liverpool are worth somewhere in the region of £4-5bn.

Liverpool cumulative wage bill Credit: Adam Williams/TBR Football/GRV Media

The most remarkable feature of FSG’s reign has been that, in an era where ineffective financial controls and the rise of sovereign wealth has sent the game into an inflationary spiral, everything the Boston-based owners have done has been within their means.

And if Isak signs before the window shuts at 7.00pm on Monday, the deal will adhere to the same principles of self-sufficiency.

Alexander Isak deal could have seen Liverpool breach UEFA FFP without unprecedented player sale profits

Liverpool’s transfer business so far this summer has cost them close to £240m. Isak would take that to £370m at the very least.

And yet, under the Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR), the Reds have never had even a hint of anxiety thanks to soaring revenues and masterful cost control from FSG.

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“I assure you that Liverpool will have taken a deep and forensic analysis of their spending plans for A) the current year and B) the next two years,” explains Liverpool University football finance lecturer Kieran Maguire, speaking exclusively to TBR Football.

“That will be flexible depending on the level of success on the pitch. The biggest driver will be the Champions League.“

Liverpool’s participation in the Champions League means that it isn’t just PSR that they have to worry about, however. They are UEFA’s Football Earnings test and Squad Cost ratio rules too.

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The Football Earnings test, which restricts losses for clubs deemed to be in good financial health to around £75m after allowable costs over a rolling three-season period, was never going to be an issue.

But for Michael Edwards, Richard Hughes and Arne Slot to realise their lofty ambitions in the transfer market this summer, Liverpool did need to make adjustments to ensure compliance with UEFA’s Squad Cost limit.

This element of UEFA FFP, as it is still colloquially known, limits clubs’ spending on player and manager wages, transfers and agents’ fees to 70 per cent of calendar-year revenue plus a three-season average of profit on player sales.

In 2024-25, according to analysis from the football finance analyst Greg Cordell, Liverpool’s revenue is likely to have been just shy of £719m. Their profit on player sales – which is calculated based on players’ amortised book value offset against sale price – in the last two seasons meanwhile equates to just £31m.

Assuming similar revenue for the calendar year, that would give them a Squad Cost limit of £525m.

Their amortisation was approximately £110m, per Cordell’s analysis, while their wage bill probably passed the £400m mark. Around 75 per cent of that is attributable to player and manager wages, so the relevant wage bill is around £300m for UEFA Squad Cost purposes.

Their business so far this summer has added approximately £50m net in amortisation costs, plus £20m in wages. Based on Cordell’s estimates, that would take their relevant wage bill to £320m and their transfer amortisation to £160m.

Add Isak’s potential £15.6m salary and annual amortisation of around £30m and Liverpool would have been creeping over the Squad Cost limit of £525m.

However, Liverpool have had their best ever summer in terms of player sale profits. And remember, that’s in terms of accounting profit, not the fees for which now-sold players initially signed for the club.

By TBR Football’s calculations, Liverpool’s sales have generated pprofits of £151.5m, which is higher even than in 2017-18, when they sold Philippe Coutinho to Barcelona for £142m.

That in turn brings their three-year player sale profit average to £71.1m and increases their Squad Cost limit to around £553m, meaning that they will have ample room for manoeuvre even if Isak is signed.

They are rough figures, and the fact that UEFA’s is a calendar year test means the true totals will be different. But even this rough calculation illustrates the importance of Liverpool’s sales this summer.

“There is still scope for Liverpool to reduce costs over the course of the next three years. They have no problems whatsoever in the current market,” Maguire tells TBR Football.

“They could sign Alexander Isak with ease, even at the full asking price and sky-high wages. They have absolutely nothing to worry about.

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“They have got the Adidas deal which has kicked in with record sales. There are significant wage earners – Trent Alexander-Arnold, Luis Diaz, Darwin Nunez and so on – who are off payroll too. There is pure profit on the sale of Jarell Quansah and not far off pure profit off Ben Doak too.”

Liverpool’s Champions League bonanza could pay Isak transfer fee

In 2021, Liverpool co-launched the star-crossed European Super League a mere 24 hours before UEFA were set to vote on the introduction of a new format for the Champions League.

Because of the Super League crisis, that vote got put on the backburner. But the 36-team format – which was introduced last season – was itself designed to placate clubs like Liverpool who felt they were being sold short by UEFA and wanted to create their own franchise-style competition.

The ‘Swiss Model’ Champions League has been a ripping success for the likes of Liverpool, who earned around £85m during their run to the quarter-finals last season.

With Slot’s side virtually guaranteed to finish in the top 24 this season, they can also bank on five home matches at Anfield, each worth around £5m. That means they will almost certainly break the £100m mark from the Champions League all told.

Go deep into the tournament and they could even earn enough cash to fund most of Isak’s would-be British-record transfer fee.

The structures of European football mean that FSG are confident that a £130m-plus outlay on one player can be cost-effective.

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