Heisman Trophy Odds: Massive shift in ranking favorites after Week 1 of college football

Arch Manning‘s much-anticipated debut as Texas‘ starting quarterback didn’t exactly meet the moment as the former No. 1 overall recruit struggled throughout Saturday’s 14-7 loss at No. 3 Ohio State. But, while certainly disappointing to Longhorns fans, Manning’s difficult debut outing had far wider-reaching consequences, especially as it relates to BetMGM’s Heisman Trophy odds coming out of a wild Week 1 of the college football season.

Fresh off the first full weekend of games, BetMGM’s betting odds to win the 2025 Heisman Trophy award underwent a seismic shakeup, including a precipitous fall for Manning, who was the consensus preseason favorite among most oddsmakers. Following his struggles Saturday, Manning’s odds dropped from +900 — which had him second behind LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier — to +1600, which put him outside the Top 5 at No. 7 in BetMGM’s latest odds.

But with Manning and others falling, several big names also received a big boost to their Heisman odds, including veteran transfer quarterbacks Carson Beck and John Mateer, who both impressed in their respective debuts with Miami and Oklahoma, respectively. And don’t overlook South Carolina sophomore phenom LaNorris Sellers, who turned heads Sunday night in Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Check out the rest of BetMGM’s current odds to win the 2025 Heisman Trophy below:

Nussmeier firmly cemented his status as BetMGM’s betting favorite to win this year’s Heisman after directing an impressive 17-10 road victory over a Top 5 Clemson in Saturday’s season-opener — snapping LSU’s five-game losing streak in season-openers.

Nussmeier made his early case by throwing for 248 yards and one touchdown on 74.4-percent (29-of-39) passing, but most of all he didn’t make any significant mistakes after leading the SEC with 12 interceptions last season. If Nussmeier can continue to pile up victories and touchdowns and avoid turnovers, he’ll find himself in New York City in December.

© Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

The Gamecocks’ superstar sophomore QB backed up his own preseason hype — and caught the attention of NFL scouts everywhere — with a strong showing in Sunday’s 24-11 win over Virginia Tech. And BetMGM oddsmakers took notice, moving him to No. 2.

The 6-foot-3 and 240-pound Sellers impressed with 234 yards of total offense and two touchdowns — including one rushing — while throwing for 209 yards on 12-of-19 passing against the Hokies, catching the attention of Heisman voters and bettors all across the country.

Making his first start since suffering a torn UCL in his throwing elbow in last season’s SEC Championship game, Beck began his Hurricanes career flashing much of what once had him earning No. 1 overall pick buzz prior to what became a disappointing 2024 season.

In a standalone opportunity Sunday, Beck powered host Miami to an exciting 27-24 win over No. 6 Notre Dame, last season’s national champion runner-up, with 205 yards and two touchdowns on 20-of-31 (64.5-percent) passing to jump into a two-way tie for third with his former Georgia backup.

Stockton answered a lot of questions from Bulldogs fans — and Vegas oddsmakers — in Saturday’s 45-7 season-opening win vs. Marshall. It was a welcomed effort in his second career start after dropping his first start in last year’s College Football Playoff national quarterfinal vs. Notre Dame.

Stockton looked in total control offensively, leading touchdown drives on Georgia’s first two possessions Saturday en route to combining on 263 yards of total offense and a career-high four total touchdowns — including 10 carries for 73 yards and two scores on the ground.

© Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Mateer, the offseason’s No. 3 transfer quarterback behind Beck and UCLA’s Nico Iamaleava according to On3’s Transfer Portal ranking, more than lived up to the enormous preseason hype with an SEC-best Week 1 performance over FCS-level Illinois State.

Mateer saw a significant 1200-point bump in his Heisman odds after exploing for a SEC-leading 392 yards and three touchdowns on 81.1-percent (30-of-37) passing while adding another score on the ground to jump into the Top 5 according to BetMGM oddsmakers.

Coming off last season’s breakout All-American campaign as a true freshman, Smith struggled to create any big plays in Saturday’s 14-7 upset of top-ranked Texas, finishing with just six catches for 43 yards.

While not exactly concerning, it was enough for BetMGM’s oddsmakers to ding Smith with a 200-point drop in his Heisman Trophy odds, falling just outside the Top 5.

BetMGM’s biggest faller after Week 1 was undoubtedly the overhyped Manning scion, who dropped 700 points after struggling through much of the first three quarters Saturday vs. Ohio State’s new defense.

Despite finishing with 170 passing yards, 132 of those came in the fourth quarter when Manning finished strong completing 8 of his final 15 passes including a 32-yard touchdown pass to Parker Livingstone for the Longhorns’ lone score Saturday.

© Ken Ruinard-USA Today Network South Carolina via Imagn Images

Another preseason Heisman favorite, Klubnik experienced a steep 500-point drop in his own BetMGM odds after failing to record a touchdown in Saturday’s 17-10 home loss to LSU.

It was the first time Klubnik failed to reach the end zone since last season’s loss vs. rival South Carolina, as Clemson’s three-year starting QB accounted for 230 yards on 19-of-38 (50-percent) passing with one interception vs. LSU.

Despite an encouraging season-opening effort in Saturday’s 46-11 win over visiting Nevada, Allar also saw his Heisman odds fall, albeit just about 300 points.

This comes after Allar posted an impressive 84.6-percent (22-of-26) passing effort while throwing for 217 yards and one touchdown Saturday. The BetMGM oddsmakers likely want to see him do that against tougher competition.

Leavitt, BetMGM’s biggest climber in its Heisman odds, rounds out the Top 10 entering Week 2 after the Sun Devils sophomore quarterback shined in Saturday’s 38-19 win over in-state foe Northern Arizona.

Leavitt ended Saturday with a combined 330 yards of total offense and four total touchdowns Saturday, including two rushing scores and 73 yards on seven carries, while also adding 257 yards on 64.1-percent (25-of-39) passing with two more scores through the air.

11. Dante Moore, Oregon, QB: +2000 (stayed the same)

12. DJ Lagway, Florida, QB: +2000 (up from +2500)

13. Jackson Arnold, Auburn, QB: +2000 (up from +5000)

14. Julian Sayin, Ohio State, QB: +2500 (down from +2000)

15. Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame, RB: +2500 (up from +5000)

16. Devon Dampier, Utah, QB: +2500 (up from +10000)

17. Ty Simpson, Alabama, QB: +3000 (up from +5500)

18. Thomas Castellanos, Florida State, QB: +3000 (up from +6000)

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