Chiefs-Ravens Week 4 predictions from Arrowhead Pride

Going into the Kansas City Chiefs’ Week 3 game against the New York Giants, every member of our Arrowhead Pride panel picked the Chiefs to win. As a group, we anticipated Kansas City would prevail 26-17. That prediction had 16 points of error compared to the Chiefs’ 22-9 victory.

Our readers were less convinced. Nearly one in five (18%) thought the Giants would win, while most who picked Kansas City expected a close game.

In Week 4, the Chiefs face the Baltimore Ravens on GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Baltimore is favored by 2.5 points.

Let’s see what the staff — and our readers — think about the matchup.

Nate Christensen (@natech32)

This is a really strange version of this matchup. Right now, neither team is playing even close to its best football. The Ravens’ run defense has been a total disaster. Derrick Henry suddenly can’t hold on to the ball in big moments. The Chiefs have no juice on the perimeter and can’t run the ball. Both teams will improve by season’s end, but this game feels weird.

Last week, I had the Ravens winning this game — but now, I’m picking Kansas City. Baltimore’s defense will make it easier for Andy Reid to scheme quick-hitters to keep the offense moving. The Ravens will hit some explosive plays, but the Chiefs are closer to a complete team right now. They get more stops and ultimately win.

Chiefs 27, Ravens 24

John Dixon (@Arrowheadphones)

It’s tempting to predict a big Chiefs win at home. But despite their injuries, the Ravens are tough — and motivated to steal one in front of Kansas City’s crowd. I’m also not ready to say the Chiefs’ offense is ready to thrash anybody. So I’ll go with a low-scoring, narrow win.

Chiefs 23, Ravens 20

Maurice Elston (@MrMauriceElston)

Coming into the season, both teams were viewed as Super Bowl contenders. But now, each sits at 1-2, trying to avoid an early-season hole. The stakes feel much like those of a postseason game.

For Kansas City, the return of Xavier Worthy and the emergence of Tyquan Thornton should stabilize the passing game. The Ravens have shown vulnerability against the run, so even if the Chiefs don’t break out on the ground, balance could give them the edge.

Mahomes has had the upper hand over Lamar Jackson in past matchups. Expect another close battle, but Kansas City’s defense and balance should be just enough.

Chiefs 27, Ravens 24

Mark Gunnels (@MarkAGunnels)

Before the season, nobody would have predicted the loser of this game would fall to 1-3. Yet here we are.

The Ravens come in banged up after being dominated by the Lions. Without Nnamdi Madubuike, their defensive front is thin. Detroit ran for 224 yards — and while the Chiefs don’t have that same backfield talent, I still think they’ll find success. Baltimore’s pass rush is also non-existent, giving Patrick Mahomes plenty of time.

Lamar Jackson is always dangerous, but I trust Steve Spagnuolo to scheme a plan to contain him. The Chiefs get back to .500.

Chiefs 27, Ravens 24

Caleb James (@CJScoobs)

Both teams are talented enough to win a Lombardi, yet both are 1-2. The loser here faces a dreaded 1-3 start.

Baltimore’s defense is battered and missing key starters. And while the Chiefs’ offense hasn’t been great, it showed signs of life last week. With Worthy stretching the field, Kansas City should open things up. If the Chiefs get even modest production from their backs, it could be a strong day.

Defensively, containing Jackson and Henry is the key. With how poor the Ravens’ defense looks, a few stops may be all Kansas City needs.

Chiefs 35, Ravens 28

Rocky Magaña (@RockyMagana)

This is always a fun matchup, but Baltimore’s defense is shaky. Their pass rush isn’t what it used to be, their run defense has been gashed and their secondary struggles to close out games.

Against Detroit, Lamar Jackson looked rattled late and Derrick Henry put the ball on the ground. Still, Jackson remains one of the most dangerous players in NFL history — and John Harbaugh is a great coach.

I think Xavier Worthy’s return gives Kansas City the boost it needs.

Chiefs 24, Ravens 20

Jared Sapp (@TrumanChief)

After the ugly win over the Giants, I planned to pick against Kansas City. Then I watched Baltimore on Monday night.

Right now, the Chiefs’ offense is closer to where it needs to be than Baltimore’s defense is. If Kansas City can exploit the Ravens’ absences, I trust Spagnuolo to craft a plan for Jackson and Henry; we’ve seen it before.

This one will be ugly — but if the Chiefs avoid too many three-and-outs, the defense can win it.

Chiefs 24, Ravens 23

Matt Stagner (@stagdsp)

It may not feel like it, but this team is getting on track. The defense is improving every week; it could end up being one of the league’s best. The offense is still developing, but with reinforcements at wide receiver and Mahomes playing sharp, things are trending upward.

The Ravens will challenge them, but I like Kansas City’s defense in this matchup. If they contain Jackson’s running and force him to throw, they’ll be in great shape. Look for at least one big play to Worthy in his return — and maybe some strides in the running game.

Chiefs 27, Ravens 19

With their predictions aggregated, our panelists expect the Chiefs to win 27-23.

What do you think?

2025 Standings

TW LW Staffer W L Pct Err 1 1 Jared Sapp 2 1 0.6667 18.7 2 2 Maurice Elston 2 1 0.6667 20.7 3 3 Nate Christensen 1 2 0.3333 16.7 4 7 Rocky Magaña 1 2 0.3333 20.0 5 6 Caleb James 1 2 0.3333 22.0 6 4 John Dixon 1 2 0.3333 22.7 7 5 Matt Stagner 1 2 0.3333 23.3 8 8 Mark Gunnels 1 2 0.3333 25.3

In Week 3, Rocky Magaña’s call for a 24-13 Kansas City victory led the panel with eight points of error. Four other contributors — Maurice Elston, Mark Gunnels, Caleb James and Jared Sapp — each missed by 16 total points.

To calculate a prediction’s points of error, the differences between the prediction and the actual score in point spread, home team score and away team score are added together. For example, a prediction calls for a 17-10 Chiefs win. They end up winning 16-10, so there were two points of error: the point spread was off by one point, the Kansas City score missed by one point and the opponent’s score was predicted correctly. But if the Chiefs lose the game 17-10, there were 28 points of error in the prediction: the point spread was off by 14 (the difference between +7 and -7) and both scores missed by 7.

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