Race to Riyadh: The storylines that matter most between now and the WTA Finals

Just like that, the Grand Slam season is behind us. Four majors, four different champions, and a year that never settled into one dominant storyline. It ended fittingly with World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka finally winning her first Slam of 2025 in New York, a victory that steadied her season and raised the stakes for the final stretch.

Now the tour pivots to Asia and beyond, where the points carry extra weight and the margins grow thin. This is where year-end rankings are decided, where confidence can be rebuilt, and where the push to Riyadh defines who’s truly had a great season.

There are questions everywhere. Can Iga Swiatek chase down Sabalenka for the year-end No. 1? Will Coco Gauff reset her serve and confidence in time to defend her WTA Finals crown? Is Naomi Osaka’s resurgence about to level up, or will it settle back into something steadier? And which of the newer faces can turn promise into staying power?

From here to Riyadh, there’s plenty of tennis left to shape the season’s story.

Here are three storylines from each of our writers we will be watching most closely in the final stretch:

Big questions at the summit

The year-end No. 1 chase

Who will finish as the year-end World No. 1? The direct rivalry between Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka has mostly taken a back seat in 2025 so far -- they've played just once, in the Roland Garros semifinals. Instead, both players' narratives involved bouncing back from more general setbacks to win one major each, Swiatek at Wimbledon and Sabalenka in New York. Those results have put the pair in a strong position to battle it out for Player of the Year honors -- maybe even through an on-court meeting or two.

Who’s the freshest?

It's been an arduous season, with the toll on the players compounded by two-week WTA 1000 events in every swing. Who's the freshest heading into the home stretch? Keep an eye on players who have missed chunks of time with injury (Czech comeback queens Barbora Krejcikova, Marketa Vondrousova and Karolina Muchova) as well as a few who haven't been winning matches at their usual rate, and still have a few things to prove in 2025 (Diana Shnaider, Daria Kasatkina).

Breakthroughs under the spotlight

Can the tour's recent cohort of breakthroughs keep it up? Three Asian players who turned heads in North America -- the Philippines' Alexandra Eala, Japan's Aoi Ito and Indonesia's Janice Tjen -- should be well placed to take momentum into their home continent. Two teenagers, Canada's Victoria Mboko and the Czech Republic's Tereza Valentova, will also be contesting the Asian swing for the first time and will be worth keeping an eye on.

-- Alex Macpherson

The qualification crunch

Who gets to Riyadh?

Who will emerge from the pack and qualify for Riyadh? In the race to the WTA Finals, Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek are already in. That leaves six spots open for singles. If the regular season ended today, the following players would qualify: Coco Gauff (5,184), Amanda Anisimova (4,908/5,608), Madison Keys (4,450), Jessica Pegula (4,209), Mirra Andreeva (4189), Elena Rybakina (3,751). But with WTA 1000 events coming up in Beijing and Wuhan, WTA 500s in Guadalajara, Seoul, Ningbo and Tokyo there are opportunities. Next in line: Jasmine Paolini (3,526), Ekaterina Alexandrova (2,871), Elina Svitolina (2,606), Clara Tauson (2,553), Emma Navarro (2,310) and Naomi Osaka (2,244).

Can Andreeva catch fire again?

No one was hotter than Mirra Andreeva through the middle of the season. Still only 17, she won back-to-back WTA 1000s in Dubai and Indian Wells. She beat Iga Swiatek in both tournaments and took down Aryna Sabalenka and Elina Rybakina in Indian Wells. And then she had a terrific clay run, reaching the quarterfinals in Madrid, Rome and Roland Garros. But after getting to the quarters, she’s been quiet. Now 18, Andreeva has played only five matches since Wimbledon, going 3-2. She took a nasty fall in a Montreal loss to McCartney Kessler, suffering an ankle injury. Looking for her to get going again in Asia.

Which new names will stick?

Which of the newbies who vaulted into the Top 100 will finish strong? Alexandra Eala had a scorching run to the Miami semifinals and lost in the finals at Eastbourne, but has won only one WTA-level match since. The good news? The 20-year-old Filipina is fresh off a WTA 125 title in Guadalajara, Maya Joint, 19, won that Eastbourne final – her second ever, after winning the title in Rabat. Joint has only four wins in six events since Eastbourne. Lois Boisson, 22, was a surprise semifinalist at Roland Garros and the winner of the Hamburg 250. Dogged by an adductor injury, she’s 0-2 since.

-- Greg Garber

Stars under the spotlight

Can Gauff reset in Asia?

Will Coco Gauff right the ship in Asia? It sounds like an absurd question, just three months removed from a French Open title, but it's been a bit of a whirlwind since then. Too many double faults. The surprising hire of biomechanics expert Gavin Macmillan. An early exit in New York. (Though there's certainly no shame in losing to an in-form Naomi Osaka.) Will we start to see her serve improve after more time with Macmillan? Can she repeat at the WTA Finals in Riyadh? And most importantly, can she get her confidence back?

Is Osaka really back?

Is Naomi Osaka back? It certainly appears so, though we need more of a sample size to be sure. After hiring Tomasz Wiktorowski last month, all the four-time Grand Slam champion has done is win 11 of 13 matches, reach the final in Montreal and come within a set of returning to the US Open final. But more important than the numbers and accolades is how locked in she's looked, and how much joy she seems to be playing with (a wonderful sight to see). Can she keep it going? We'll find out later this month, in Beijing.

Will a fifth major winner emerge?

Had Aryna Sabalenka lost the US Open final, I would have wondered if she would cement her status as the world's top player in Riyadh despite falling short at the majors. But that's less of a concern now. Instead, I'm focused on the incredible parity on the Hologic WTA Tour. Four different players won majors in 2025. Will a fifth emerge victorious at the WTA Finals? I'm looking at you, Jess Pegula, Mirra Andreeva, Amanda Anisimova, Jasmine Paolini ... or perhaps someone else? Gauff did it last year, winning in Riyadh after not winning a Slam.

-- Brad Kallet

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