IPL playoffs scenarios: With 14 matches to go, RCB have 98.2% chance of progressing - odds for each team explained

Image credit: BCCI/IPL

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We look at the probabilities:

Team

Best case scenario

Worst case scenario

Chances (%) of making or tying for top 4

Chances (%) of making or tying for top 2

RCB

Sole topper with 22 pts. Can happen if they win remaining games and GT lose at least one

End up 6th. Can happen if they lose all their remaining games

98.2

76.0

GT

Sole topper with 22 pts. Can happen if they win their remaining games and RCB lose one or more

Finish 6th by losing all remaining games

98.4

74.6

PBKS

Sole topper with 21 pts. Can happen if they win remaining games and both RCB and GT lose at least one

Finish 7th by losing all remaining games

89.9

44.5

MI

Sole topper with 18 pts. Can happen if they win remaining games, RCB and GT lose their remaining games and PBKS lose two

Finish 7th by losing all remaining games

58.5

15.8

DC

Sole topper with 19 pts. Can happen if they win remaining games, RCB, GT and PBKS lose two each and MI loses one

Finish 7th by losing all the remaining games

57.2

14.8

KKR

Finish tied for the top spot with PBKS and DC on 17. Can happen if they win remaining games, RCB and GT lose theirs, PBKS lose two, DC and MI lose one each

Finish joint 8th by losing all the remaining games

14.8

1.1

LSG

Finish tied 2nd on 16 pts with RCB, MI and GT. Can happen if they win remaining games, RCB and GT lose all of theirs, MI lose two and either PBKS also lose all their games or DC wins no more than one

Finish 8th by losing all the remaining games

7.9

0.1

How we arrive at the probabilities:

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NEW DELHI: With 14 games remaining in the league stage, Chennai Super Kings , Rajasthan Royals and Sunrisers Hyderabad are already out of contention for the playoffs. Riyal Challengers Bengaluru, Punjab Kings and Gujarat Titans are almost sure to make the knock-out stage, but Mumbai Indians and Delhi Capitals still have an even chance while Lucknow Super Giants have Kolkata Knight Riders slim chances.There remain 16,384 possible combinations of results, so nothing is for sure yet for any of the seven remaining in the race.There are 16,384 possible combinations of results remaining with 14 games to go.For each team, we looked at how many of these end up with them being among the top four either singly or tied. We also looked at how many combinations put each team in the top two either singly or jointly.For instance, RCB finish in the top four in 16,092 of the possible combinations of match outcomes, translating to a 98.2% chance.In 12,452 of them they end up first or second, singly or jointly, translating to a 76% chance.

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