The Best NFL Bets for Week 5

Week 4 was a classic example of why you should never, ever overreact to one game of football. In Week 3, the Falcons got blown out by 30 on the road in North Carolina. They responded by comfortably beating the Commanders as a short favorite at home in Week 4. Meanwhile, the Saints lost by 31 up in Seattle in Week 3 and then were within one score late in the fourth quarter in Buffalo (and covered +15.5 easily).

Week 5 brings us our first bye weeks of the season, as Chicago, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, and Atlanta take the week off. We also (thankfully) will be subjected to only one Monday Night Football game after last week’s low-quality doubleheader.

I’m back with my thoughts on the entire Week 5 slate, starting with the bets I’ve made already. (All lines from FanDuel as of Thursday morning.)

The Favorite Five

I’ll be highlighting my favorite five picks each week throughout the season, which will serve as a preview for my picks on The Ringer 107—a season-long contest between The Bill Simmons Podcast, The Ringer NFL Show, The Ringer Gambling Show, and The Ringer Fantasy Football Show. I’ll be partnering with Cousin Sal to make the Gambling Show’s Friday picks.

After this column went 5-4 as a whole last week but 1-4 on my Favorite Five, I’m wondering why I made up this silly construct in the first place. We’re now 8-12 on this part of the column this season. An NFL writers meeting was held on Tuesday in an attempt to turn it around.

New York Giants at New Orleans Saints (-1.5)

The Giants opened the week as the betting favorites in this game, but that didn’t last long. While it’s cool that Giants fans are celebrating a huge upset win to kick off the Jaxson Dart era, the betting market clearly isn’t buying into the narrative. When I looked deeper into that Chargers-Giants game, I came away much more concerned with the Chargers’ offensive line than impressed by anything the Giants offense did.

New York did have a stellar scripted opening drive that involved Dart in the running game, leading to a touchdown. But the Giants defense forced two turnovers that gave the offense the ball deep in Chargers territory, and those two drives accounted for 11 of New York’s 21 points in the game. The fact of the matter is that the Giants offense averaged just 3.6 yards per play.

The Saints, on the other hand, are actually 10th best in EPA per rush allowed through four games, and I don’t think Dart will be successful in obvious passing downs in his first career road start. When you also consider that his group of pass catchers is extremely limited after Malik Nabers went down with an ACL injury, I think Dart could really struggle.

Meanwhile, the New Orleans offense has actually been consistently able to move the ball this season. The Saints had a special teams disaster that knocked them out early against Seattle in Week 2, but they are 18th in offensive success rate—mediocre, yes, but certainly not horrible. The Saints ran the ball all over Buffalo, and the Giants’ run defense has been a major problem through four weeks. New Orleans should move the chains on Sunday.

Verdict: Bet Saints -1.5

Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)

The Eagles are capable of playing functional offense for only one half per game. Good luck figuring out which half that is. The offense no-showed in the second half against the Cowboys, the first half against the Rams, and the second half against the Buccaneers. The Eagles managed to win that Tampa Bay game (and I somehow lost a second-half under bet) even though they did not complete a single pass after halftime. They are 4-0, yet they haven’t played close to their best football. I can’t decide if the defending Super Bowl champions should be worried or if the rest of the league should be.

The Eagles have the highest three-and-out rate in the NFL, at 46.3 percent. It’s unfathomable that a group this talented can be this ineffective for long stretches, but there’s more at play than just the new offensive coordinator, Kevin Patullo, who is taking a lot of heat early in the season. Reigning Offensive Player of the Year Saquon Barkley is averaging just 3.1 yards per carry, and the offensive line hasn’t been nearly as cohesive this year. I suspect Landon Dickerson is still dealing with the meniscus injury he suffered in August training camp, and Lane Johnson has also been in and out with an injury. As a result, the Eagles line hasn’t bullied opponents like it usually does.

Philly has actually done quite well against the blitz, but it struggles against teams that can get pressure with four. Denver loves to be aggressive, and its defensive front is elite at getting to the quarterback. I still have my doubts about the Broncos’ back seven, but the Eagles don’t look like they’re going to exploit that unless they trail by multiple scores.

Here’s the stat that makes the handicap for me. The Eagles defense was number one in the NFL last year on passes either behind the line of scrimmage or fewer than 5 yards down the field. This season, it ranks a still-pretty-great sixth. Vic Fangio’s defense had its best game last week (with the exception of giving up two massive passing touchdowns). With Cooper DeJean and Zack Baun flying around, I don’t know if there’s a worse matchup in the entire league for the Denver offense than Philly. I really want to bet the under for the whole game, too, but I’m isolating for Denver’s offensive struggles. After the Eagles faced Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, and Baker Mayfield, Bo Nix will be a considerable step down in opposing quarterback quality.

Verdict: Bet Broncos team total under 19.5 (+102)

Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)

The Chargers’ offensive line has quickly deteriorated from a quality unit to a highly questionable one with the injuries to Rashawn Slater, Joe Alt, and Mekhi Becton. Justin Herbert was under total duress in consecutive games against the Broncos and Giants, and multiple errant throws and interceptions followed.

Those two opponents the Chargers faced are elite at generating pressure, and this Commanders unit is certainly not. The Commanders have played two road games this season, and they allowed 27 points to Green Bay and 34 to Atlanta. Both of those teams were able to consistently push the ball downfield and produce explosive plays. For the second consecutive year (as of now), the Commanders have the sixth-worst explosive play rate allowed. Given the injuries on the Washington defense, notably edge rusher Deatrich Wise Jr., corner Jonathan Jones, and safety Will Harris, I think Herbert can generate big plays even with the offensive line’s issues.

And with the Commanders missing Terry McLaurin, I don’t think Jayden Daniels can produce the same chunk plays against the Chargers. Jesse Minter’s defense forces everything underneath, and that’s why Los Angeles is top eight at preventing explosive plays.

While the Commanders could find success with their usual methodical offense, the big-play differential will be the separator. I’d lay up to three with the Chargers coming off a loss.

Verdict: Bet Chargers -2.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks (-3)

The Tampa Bay offense posted dismal success rates in consecutive weeks at home against the Jets and Eagles. It produced just enough explosive plays to still put up 29 and 23 points, respectively, but the offensive line injuries and the absence of Mike Evans severely limited the Bucs’ ability to play consistently good offensive football.

Now the Bucs go on the road to face one of the league’s best defenses, a Seattle unit that has allowed the second-lowest explosive play rate in the NFL. The Seahawks come into this game with extra rest off a Thursday night game, and they’re considerably healthier on both sides of the ball.

While props are not out yet as of this writing, I’d be curious to see where the markets price Baker Mayfield to throw an interception in this game. Seattle has forced opposing quarterbacks into a ton of mistakes, and Mayfield has been extremely fortunate to have just one pick at this point in the season.

The market opened with Seattle as a -2.5 favorite, and it crossed the key number of three at a lot of books. You can still bet Seattle -3 on FanDuel.

Verdict: Bet Seahawks -3

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (+2.5)

If you watch our Sunday pregame show on YouTube, then you know I’ve turned the 2025 Houston Texans offense into a bit. Each week, my “Wise Wager” has been the under in the Texans game. The bet has been heavily featured in this column as well, and we’ve cashed our bets with relative ease all four weeks.

The Texans offense finally broke out on Sunday with 26 points, but the game was also 6-0 in the fourth quarter before Houston scored twice on short fields to grow the lead in the waning moments. This is the stoppable force (Houston’s terrible offense) meeting the movable object (Baltimore’s terrible defense). As much as I’ve been right about the Texans, I could not have been more wrong about liking the Ravens last week. I underestimated their defensive injury crisis. I will now not underestimate their offensive injury crisis. This offense doesn’t really work with Cooper Rush as a stand-in for two-time MVP Lamar Jackson. The offensive line also has multiple injuries, and Houston’s Derek Stingley Jr. can take away Zay Flowers.

At this point, I have to bet the Houston game to go under for the bit, even if it’s moved four points from the opening line following the Jackson injury news.

Verdict: Bet under 40.5

Thursday Night Football

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-7)

The market for this game has entirely favored the Los Angeles Rams since it opened on Sunday night. The look-ahead line for this game was Rams -3, and it’s been bet out to -7 at a lot of sportsbooks as the 49ers’ injury situation has worsened. Brock Purdy, Ricky Pearsall, and Jauan Jennings have all been ruled out, and it’s clear to me from watching the 49ers last week that this is maybe the worst offensive line of the Kyle Shanahan era.

Trent Williams played the entire 2023 season and allowed only 20 pressures. He allowed just 17 in 11 games last year. Through four games in 2025, the future Hall of Fame tackle has allowed 12. He was the glue holding together this offensive line, but whether it’s because of injuries or aging, he has not looked like the same dominant player this year. The Niners offense hasn’t been able to run the ball effectively and is 25th in rushing success rate.

The Rams’ defensive front should be able to dominate this game and help cover for the mediocre secondary. The Colts moved the ball pretty well against them last Sunday because Indianapolis’s skill group is really talented, but the injury situation in San Francisco means there’s no one healthy besides Christian McCaffrey to threaten the Rams.

Given that these two teams rank 21st (Rams) and 27th (49ers) in red zone efficiency and both head coaches are conservative in nature, I bet the under on Thursday Night Football for the second consecutive week.

Verdict: Bet under 46.5 (-102)

The Rest of the Slate

Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts (-6.5)

To say Geno Smith’s start in Las Vegas has not gone well would be an understatement. He’s been unusually erratic and careless with the ball, even by his past standards. After a stellar opening game in New England, the Raiders got smothered by the Chargers and were controlled by the Commanders on the road. Those losses were excusable and not surprising. But the home loss to the Bears, in which the Raiders turned the ball over four times (three Smith interceptions) and had a game-winning field goal blocked, is hard to explain. The Raiders otherwise dominated the box score thanks to a breakout, three-touchdown game from Ashton Jeanty.

Before the season, if you had told me the Colts would be 6.5-point favorites against the Raiders in Week 5, I would have laughed at you. But, honestly, given Indianapolis's defensive improvements and its offensive consistency, I think this price is entirely justified.

The biggest weakness for Indy right now is at corner. Without Kenny Moore II (calf injury), the defense was shredded by Puka Nacua in Week 4. But the Raiders don’t really have the receiving talent to expose this major weakness. Colts defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has done an excellent job disguising looks and forcing mistakes on third downs, and that feels like an ominous factor for the Raiders given how careless Smith has been with the ball.

Depending on how much you bake in preseason opinions to your NFL takes, you could make a clear case for Las Vegas. I will not be doing that.

Verdict: Pass

Minnesota Vikings vs. Cleveland Browns (+3.5, in London)

Believe it or not, the Vikings will be in a highly advantageous position on Sunday when they play their second consecutive overseas game. Cleveland is on back-to-back road trips after losing in Detroit last Sunday and will now have to get acclimated to the time difference. The Jaguars were in a similar scenario to Minnesota the past two seasons and did the international double both times. Obviously those victories can’t entirely be put down to the travel, but you have to think it aided Jacksonville a bit, especially in the second games.

The market seems to be shading toward Minnesota as a result. With the total sitting at 35.5, it would be an understatement to say points will be at a premium. The Vikings are about to face maybe the best defensive line in the NFL without left guard Donovan Jackson, right tackle Brian O’Neill, and potentially center Ryan Kelly as well. Minnesota had real trouble coping with the Pittsburgh pressure last week, and Carson Wentz apparently loves to hold the ball a tad too long and take sacks.

Meanwhile, the Browns’ offensive line situation is so dire that they traded for left tackle Cam Robinson (from the Texans) this week. This is the same offense that faced awful Baltimore and Cincinnati defenses and couldn’t score more than 17 points. It’s a tall task for this offense to handle Brian Flores’s defense and exotic pressure schemes—especially after making the quarterback switch to Dillon Gabriel. Gabriel is walking into one of the most difficult quarterback situations imaginable for a rookie.

I could only bet the underdog or under here, but let’s be honest: If this weren’t a stand-alone overseas game, there would be almost no interest in betting on it.

Verdict: Lean under 35.5, bet at 37

Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers (+1.5)

Miami finally won a game this year but lost Tyreek Hill for the season, and the Dolphins were fortunate to even win that game based on how it played out. It took some remarkable Jets ineptitude (including three fumbles) for them to come out on top. The Jets had a much higher offensive success rate and outgained the Dolphins by 100 yards. It was one of the most misleading final scores of the Week 4 slate.

Now here is the question: Do I have the guts to bet on both the Panthers and Saints to win in the same week? I’m still building that courage. The Panthers did play three of their first four games on the road, and the lone home game was a 30-0 win. Maybe Carolina’s zone-heavy defensive scheme can give Tua Tagovailoa the same issues it gave Michael Penix Jr. in Week 3.

This is just a lean for me for now with Carolina. The only team I’d have as a home underdog to Miami is Tennessee.

Verdict: Lean Panthers +1.5

Tennessee Titans at Arizona Cardinals (-7.5)

I don’t know how big the line would have to be for me to wager actual dollars on the Titans and Brian Callahan. But it’s not 7.5. I will reiterate that this Titans run of 3-18 against the spread is one of the worst you'll ever see in the NFL. Now the Titans have to play a second consecutive road game against a team that enters with extra rest and time to prepare.

One note: We have seen this Titans team fade considerably at the end of their past three games. This is a game I’ll be watching to see if I want to get involved with Arizona live.

Verdict: Pass, look to bet Arizona live in second half

Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets (+2.5)

Each of Dallas’s four games took multiple miracles to not fly over the total. At some point, you’d think there would be a dead-cat bounce for the Dallas defense, or that maybe Dak Prescott would cool off from his early-season heater.

I do think there is some signal to the idea that Prescott is considerably better at home, where he’s able to diagnose the defense pre-snap and change plays at the line more easily. The Cowboys offense has been considerably better indoors at Jerry World than it has been outdoors on the road.

There’s a non-zero chance that the Dallas defense will make Justin Fields look like prime Michael Vick. I’ll pass here, but I’m pretty excited to watch this one either way.

Verdict: Pass

Detroit Lions at Cincinnati Bengals (+10.5)

There might be 12 total people in America looking to bet the Bengals this week. I was one of the proud few on Monday night, and let’s just say I’m glad I had a softball game during the broadcast and didn’t have to be subjected to the Bengals’ offensive performance.

My hypothesis that the Bengals offense would be OK with Jake Browning in for Joe Burrow was obviously incorrect. Now the question is: Do I want to go to war with Browning against Dan Campbell and the Lions? Not really. Even though I definitely think it’s too many points, Campbell is a covering machine, and this feels like a chance for Detroit to make one of its patented statement wins by running up a big score.

There is a considerable difference between difficult road games at Minnesota and Denver versus a home game against Detroit, but I’ve been impressed by the wrinkles that Kelvin Sheppard and this Lions defense have shown early in the season.

Verdict: Lean Bengals, but not betting them again

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-7.5)

New England has the fifth-best drive series conversion rate in the NFL, meaning its offense has been really efficient at moving the ball methodically. You could take that data with a grain of salt, because the Patriots haven’t really played against quality defense yet, but I still think that’s an encouraging sign for the offense. They managed only 14 points against Pittsburgh, but that was an outlier turnover game.

Meanwhile, Buffalo is 17th in the same metric defensively, despite playing the Jets, Dolphins, and Saints in three of their games. I continue to believe the Bills defense is average at best, and that’s especially true given the current injury situation. Both Ed Oliver and Matt Milano are listed as questionable, and their statuses make a meaningful impact for Buffalo’s front seven.

The Patriots went to Buffalo last December as a massive underdog and covered the spread because New England controlled the ball with long, methodical drives. I think a repeat could be in store. The possessions will be too long and slow for me to justify betting an over here, but it’s a clear lean to New England at anything over a touchdown.

Verdict: Lean Patriots +7.5

Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5)

Both Patrick Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence enter Week 5 among the top seven QBs in quickest time to throw. It’s clear from the scheme of both the Kansas City and Jacksonville offenses that the priority is to get the ball into their playmakers’ hands as fast as possible. The Chiefs and Jaguars are also both passing the ball at very high rates, with Kansas City in particular having the fourth-highest pass rate over expectation in the NFL.

Jacksonville’s defense is one of the most improved units in the NFL, but this is where I feel like I need to apply some real strength-of-schedule caveats before we get too carried away. The Jaguars have played the Panthers, the Bengals with Jake Browning in for most of the game, the Texans, and the injured 49ers. The Jaguars typically win with their front four generating pressure, but Mahomes is getting the ball out so fast that it’s difficult to actually get to him.

The market opened this total at 44.5 and it’s been bet up to 46.5, but I’m betting a rare Kansas City over on Sunday.

Verdict: Bet over 46.5 (-110)

Favorite Five:

Seahawks -3

Texans/Ravens Under 40.5

Broncos Team Total Under 19.5

Chargers -2.5

Saints -1.5

Other Bets:

Chiefs/Jaguars Over 46.5

49ers/Rams Under 46.5

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