Chiefs-Broncos NFL Week 18 predictions from Arrowhead Pride

Before the Kansas City Chiefs’ 29-10 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Christmas Day, all but two of our Arrowhead Pride panelists picked the Chiefs to win. Our aggregate prediction for a 23-18 win wasn’t very good, as it carried 28 points of error: it missed the point spread by 14, the Chiefs’ score by six and the Steelers’ score by eight. But our readers were pretty much in line with our thinking: 19% thought Pittsburgh would win, and 63% thought it would be a close game.

In Week 18, the Chiefs go on the road to finish their season against Denver Broncos at Empower Stadium. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Denver is favored by 10.5 points.

Let’s see what the staff — and our readers — think about the matchup.

Nate Christensen (@natech32)

As hilarious as it would be for the Chiefs to knock Denver out of the playoffs, I don’t find many realistic paths for Kansas City to win this game. I think Denver’s strong defensive front will hurt the Chiefs’ backup offensive line, making it hard to move the ball. I could see the Kansas City defense keeping the score low, but I think the Broncos’ defense will be able to do enough for them to pull away from the Chiefs.

Broncos 27, Chiefs 17

John Dixon (@Arrowheadphones)

The Chiefs will be up against a good Broncos team that desperately needs a win. While Patrick Mahomes won’t play — and other players like Chris Jones and Isiah Pacheco are also likely to be held out — I don’t believe that necessarily makes this game a big loss. Carson Wentz is the best backup Mahomes has had — and this team isn’t going to lay down against a division rival. This is easily the hardest pick I have made this season. I could have gone either way, but I’m sticking with 15-1.

Chiefs 20, Broncos 16

Maurice Elston (@MrMauriceElston)

Although the Chiefs will be resting most of their starters this Sunday, they’ll still compete to win the game. For quarterback Carson Wentz, this is a golden opportunity to prove he’s still worthy of an NFL starting job, so expect him to put on a strong performance. But with the Broncos fighting for their playoff lives, they’ll come out swinging. Ultimately, Denver’s defense will likely overwhelm Kansas City’s backup offense, allowing the Broncos to secure a hard-fought win and clinch the AFC’s No. 7 playoff seed.

Broncos 20, Chiefs 17

Ron Kopp Jr. (@Ron_Kopp)

In the modern history of Chiefs football, there have been some memorable season-closing games in Denver. Jamaal Charles once ran for 259 yards to keep the Broncos from a winning record. Another time, Kyle Orton captained a 7-3 win to block Denver from the playoffs. Since Patrick Mahomes’ NFL debut — featuring the first of his 29 career game-winning drives — those two have faded from our memories. But seven years after Mahomes’ moment, I see Carson Wentz having his own attention-grabbing performance that sets him up for offseason job interviews. I expect the Chiefs’ backup players to turn in inspired performances that spoil the Broncos’ playoff hopes.

Chiefs 23, Broncos 20

Rocky Magaña (@RockyMagana)

There are three goals in this game.

1.) Keep Denver out of the postseason. That will add the stain of collapsing down the stretch and missing out on the playoffs to Sean Payton’s resume. He was brought into Denver to challenge Andy Reid and the Chiefs for AFC West supremacy. To see him fail — and be surpassed by Jim Harbaugh in Year 1 of his Los Angeles Chargers tenure — would add a chef’s kiss to the season.

2.) Prove that under the right leadership, Carson Wentz still has what it takes to win. If Sam Darnold and Geno Smith have taught us anything, it’s that NFL redemption stories are still possible.

3.) Repay the Miami Dolphins’ debt. In the final week of the 2019 season, the Dolphins beat the New England Patriots to give Kansas City the AFC’s No. 1 seed, helping the team win its first Super Bowl in 50 years. If the Chiefs beat the Broncos — and the Dolphins take care of business against the New York Jets — then Miami makes the postseason. It’s time for Kansas City to pay up.

Chiefs 13, Broncos 10

Jared Sapp (@TrumanChief)

I’m not going to overthink this one. A major misconception surrounding this week’s narrative is that the Chiefs cannot treat this like a preseason game with a 90-man roster. Even with the team’s most important players likely watching from the sideline (or maybe not even traveling to Denver), valuable rotational players will be on the field. With the playoffs on everyone’s mind, I expect the Chiefs to play a soft game to minimize injury risks — and prioritize moving the clock ahead of getting points, padding stats or keeping Denver out of the playoffs.

Broncos 17, Chiefs 10

Matt Stagner (@stagdsp)

The Chiefs have almost nothing to gain this week. Starters will be resting, reinforcements are getting healthier and the No. 1 seed is locked in. The Broncos will be fighting for their playoff lives against Kansas City’s backups. But that doesn't mean the law firm of Carson & Carson can't get the job done. History will remember this Chiefs season based on what happens in the playoffs, but getting to 16-1 and going for the threepeat would be incredible. Sit back and enjoy a no-pressure game. It could go either way.

Broncos 19, Chiefs 17

Pete Sweeney (@pgsween)

I know nothing is on the line for the Chiefs, but I’m still intrigued by this game. This season, Carson Wentz has become an easy guy to root for — and this matchup is critical to him re-gaining an NFL starting job. Meanwhile, Kansas City — resting what I believe will be most of its stars — has a chance to eliminate the Broncos by gutting out a win. All that said, I think Denver deserves some respect. I’m not sure Broncos quarterback Bo Nix is great — or elite, as they say — but I know he is very good. I expect him to cap off his rookie year by playing well enough to get his team in the postseason.

Broncos 28, Chiefs 24

With their predictions aggregated, our panelists expect the Chiefs to lose 20-18.

What do you think?

Poll Who wins Chiefs (15-1) at Broncos (9-7)? Chiefs in a blowout (15 or more points)

Chiefs in an easy win (9-14 points)

Chiefs in a close game (8 or fewer points)

Broncos in a close game

Broncos in an easy win

Broncos in a blowout vote view results 0% Chiefs in a blowout (15 or more points) (0 votes)

0% Chiefs in an easy win (9-14 points) (0 votes)

0% Chiefs in a close game (8 or fewer points) (0 votes)

0% Broncos in a close game (0 votes)

0% Broncos in an easy win (0 votes)

0% Broncos in a blowout (0 votes) 0 votes total Vote Now

2024 Standings TW LW Staffer W L Pct Err 1 3 John Dixon 15 1 0.9375 14.4 2 1 Jared Sapp 15 1 0.9375 16.5 3 4 Maurice Elston 15 1 0.9375 16.9 4 5 Ron Kopp Jr. 15 1 0.9375 19.6 5 2 Nate Christensen 15 1 0.9375 19.8 6 6 Pete Sweeney 15 1 0.9375 23.6 7 7 Rocky Magaña 15 1 0.9375 24.1 8 8 Matt Stagner 14 2 0.8750 21.1

Rocky Magaña’s 27-13 prediction was the best of Week 17, with 10 points of error. John Dixon and Pete Sweeney each called for a Kansas City to win, but their 23-16 picks missed by 24 total points. That was good enough to move John to the top of the standings.

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