Fantasy Football Week 5 Lineup Decisions: Who to start, who to sit, must-start plays, flex plays and more

Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn't be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you've got the right guys in -- and the wrong guys out.

We can take some educated guesses based on coaches film, meaningful data, healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records, and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don't know. This should lead to better decisions being made.

We'll go through every game and highlight the players who aren't obvious starts and sits (because you don't need to be told to start Bijan Robinson). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.

All lines from Caesars Sportsbook.

In their first full game without Nick Bosa, the 49ers had a poor 16.1% pass rush pressure rate with minimal blitzing against the Jaguars, who tried just two deep passes. The matchup feels great for Matthew Stafford, it's simply a matter of how much passing he'll have to do. Remember, the 49ers offense is Christian McCaffrey and a bunch of backups, so this could become a one-sided game. Stafford's thrown at least 33 passes in each of his past three with 41 last week against the Colts' weak secondary. I'd be at least a little worried about Stafford dialing things back and coming up with somewhere between 17 and 21 Fantasy points, which is where he landed in Weeks 2 and 3 on 33 attempts. And here's a little history: In eight divisional matchups against the Niners including the playoffs, Stafford's had two games over 20 Fantasy points, none with 31 or fewer pass attempts. ... This Niners defense also got mauled up front in the run game last week, something that could easily happen again with Kyren Williams turning his usual 19.0 touched per game into a big stat line.

MUST-STARTS: Christian McCaffrey, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams

STARTS: Rams DST

SITS: Matthew Stafford (high-end No. 2 QB), Mac Jones, Demarcus Robinson, Kendrick Bourne, Jake Tonges, Blake Corum (desperation RB), Tutu Atwell, Brian Robinson Jr., 49ers DST

Save for one play where they were completely out of position, the Vikings made Aaron Rodgers look really mediocre. You could certainly argue Rodgers himself has looked mediocre since Week 2, but the point is that the Vikings are one of the league's most hyper-aggressive defenses, and now they'll take on third-round rookie Dillon Gabriel in his first NFL start. The 24-year-old played 64 college games, improving his completion rate as he got older, including on throws over 15 air yards (55.7% completion rate last year, 54% the year before, both are good). Nearly all of what he's done in mop-up duty and in most of the preseason has been keeping his throws short, while the Browns kept his reads simple. He can move around the pocket to extend plays, and he definitely had an eye for downfield throws in college, but there's nothing about the matchup that makes Gabriel or any Browns players outside of Quinshon Judkins reliable for Fantasy purposes.

MUST-STARTS: Justin Jefferson

STARTS: Quinshon Judkins, Jordan Mason, T.J. Hockenson (low-end starter), Vikings DST, Browns DST

FLEX: Jordan Addison

SITS: Carson Wentz, Dillon Gabriel, Jerry Jeudy (low-end PPR flex), Isaiah Bond (stash), Zavier Scott (desperation PPR RB), Jerome Ford, David Njoku (desperation TE), Harold Fannin (deep stash), Jalen Nailor, Adam Thielen

Woody Marks got much more comfortable with every snap last week, resulting in a sweet fourth quarter that included multiple touches with good speed, patience and cuts, including on his touchdown run. It should also be noted that Marks has overtaken the third-down work for Houston for multiple weeks already. Nick Chubb will still get some touches, but I expect the Texans to lean into Marks' versatility to help take pressure off of C.J. Stroud, who also played much more comfortably last week. Now when the schedule came out, this matchup was a reason to fear any Texans runners, but since the start of the year the Ravens have lost two starting defensive linemen, including tackle Nnamdi Madubuike, starting inside linebacker Roquan Smith and just for good measure two starting cornerbacks in Nate Wiggins and Marlon Humphrey (a third, Chidobe Awuzie, is also possible). The bottom line: Against the Ravens, James Cook had 21.2 PPR points, both Lions running backs each had 26-plus PPR points, three Browns running backs each had 10 PPR points and Pacheco had 12.8 PPR points while Kareem Hunt and Brashard Smith totaled 12.3 PPR points. That means each team notched at least 25 PPR points each. After what we saw last week, Houston's duo -- led by Marks -- should get close.

MUST-STARTS: Nico Collins, Derrick Henry

STARTS: Woody Marks (No. 2 RB), Zay Flowers, Texans DST

SITS: C.J. Stroud, Cooper Rush, Nick Chubb (low-end RB), Mark Andrews (high-end No. 2 TE), DeAndre Hopkins, Rashod Bateman, Christian Kirk, Dalton Schultz, Ravens DST

If Chuba Hubbard's calf keeps him from playing, Rico Dowdle will have himself a fantastic matchup. Three of the four lead RBs to face the Dolphins this season have scored at least 16 PPR points, including Breece Hall on Monday and Rhamondre Stevenson in Week 2. Dowdle is the former 1,000-yard rusher of the Cowboys who had been making in-roads on Hubbard's role over the past two games. A notable concern: As bad as the Dolphins run defense is, the Panthers offensive line has contributed to a downswing, especially after Robert Hunt's injury. Excluding garbage time runs, the Panthers' backs as a whole have averaged 3.7 yards per carry and a below-average 1.2 yards before contact per rush average since Hunt's been out. We're only starting Dowdle is Hubbard is out, solely for the workload and the matchup, not for the rest of the Panthers run offense.

MUST-STARTS: De'Von Achane

STARTS: Jaylen Waddle (No. 2 WR), Chuba Hubbard (or Rico Dowdle if Hubbard is out), Tetairoa McMillan, Darren Waller (low-end TE)

SITS: Tua Tagovailoa (high-end No. 2 QB), Bryce Young (matchup-based sleeper), Tommy Tremble (high-end No. 2 TE), Malik Washington (stash), Ollie Gordon II (stash), Dolphins DST, Panthers DST

Even with all the highlights you've seen of Maxx Crosby wrecking offenses, pass rush pressure has been a problem for the Raiders. They've been under a 32% pressure rate in each of their past three games, including two where they blitzed at high rates (37.5% versus the Chargers, 40.9% at the Commanders). Pair that with the Raiders reliably utilizing heavy zone coverage, doing so at the second-highest rate in the league, and especially playing Cover-3, and Daniel Jones should have a bounce-back game. Jones has a much higher completion rate and TD rate, not to mention ADOT, when not pressured, and this season he's third among qualifying quarterbacks in yards per attempt (11.3) against Cover-3 coverage.

MUST-STARTS: Jonathan Taylor, Brock Bowers

STARTS: Daniel Jones, Ashton Jeanty, Michael Pittman, Jakobi Meyers, Tyler Warren, Colts DST

SITS: Geno Smith, Alec Pierce (desperation WR), Josh Downs, Tre Tucker, Raiders DST

There were moments last week where Jaxson Dart looked a little panicked, like the play he ran right into a defender's body for a sack. But there were far more plays where he played smart, followed basic concepts well and ultimately maneuvered in around and out of the pocket like a veteran, not a rookie. There's one concern: Dart was pressured on 10 dropbacks last week, went 0 for 4 passing and was sacked five times. The Saints haven't generated much pressure this season, but last week they tried by playing more man-to-man coverage at Buffalo and blitzing Josh Allen a bunch. It was out of character for them compared to the first three weeks of the season, but it might be part of their plan for how they go about trying to affect Dart this week. This is an easy matchup -- all four QBs to play the Saints have scored at least 20 Fantasy points -- but Dart's still not worth confidently starting due to his inexperience, lack of elite receivers and lack of a high statistical ceiling.

STARTS: Cam Skattebo, Alvin Kamara, Juwan Johnson, Giants DST

FLEX: Chris Olave (especially in PPR), Darius Slayton, Wan'Dale Robinson (PPR flex)

SITS: Jaxson Dart (high-end No. 2 QB), Spencer Rattler, Rashid Shaheed (low-end flex), Kendre Miller (stash), Theo Johnson, Devin Singletary, Saints DST

For all the pass rush pressure the Cowboys mustered up last week in five quarters against a depleted Packers offensive line, they had one sack and allowed a quarterback at least 2.8 seconds on average to throw. But get ready for the resistible force to meet the movable objects because the Jets offensive line has allowed a 51.8% pass rush pressure rate through four games, higher than any other team. On the flip side, the Jets have two sacks in their past three games (none against the Dolphins!) and Dallas' O-line is middle of the pack in pass rush pressure rate allowed but fifth-best in sack rate allowed (3.4%), which is especially impressive since they took on the Packers last Sunday. If both teams have time to throw, and both teams should be able to run the ball effectively, then there really aren't any players in the matchup to be nervous to start. That includes George Pickens and his 25% target per route run rate in his past two games without CeeDee Lamb -- Sauce Gardner's allowed a 50% catch rate but also 14.1 yards per catch, so there's room for Pickens to be a No. 2 receiver.

MUST-STARTS: Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, George Pickens (No. 2 WR)

STARTS: Justin Fields, Dak Prescott, Javonte Williams, Jake Ferguson

SITS: Mason Taylor (high-end No. 2 TE), Jalen Tolbert (desperation WR), KaVontae Turpin, Isaiah Davis (decent stash), Josh Reynolds, Miles Sanders, Cowboys DST, Jets DST

Before you get excited over the 41% snap share R.J. Harvey had last week, note that 14 of his 33 snaps came in the fourth quarter when the Broncos were up 21-3 and in total control of the game. That does mean Harvey did play 32% of the snaps in the first three quarters, which is basically in line with what he played in Weeks 1 and 2. What is worth getting excited about is an uptick in targets and catches for Harvey over the past two weeks (eight targets for a 7-54-1 receiving line). Half of the targets were either designed plays or plays where he was part of the progression, not check-downs, which is encouraging. The Eagles typically play a lot of zone on first and second down before moving toward man-to-man coverage on third down, and they tend to get a lot of pressure without blitzing. If Nix is going to have a hard time throwing downfield, and if he's pressured a lot, then Harvey might continue to see a handful of targets to go along with a handful of carries. And if the Broncos trail, perhaps Harvey sees more snaps since he appears to be a preferred target out of the backfield.

MUST-STARTS: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley

STARTS: Courtland Sutton, JK Dobbins (No. 2 RB), A.J. Brown (No. 2 WR), Eagles DST

FLEX: DeVonta Smith (high-end flex), R.J. Harvey (PPR)

SITS: Bo Nix (borderline No. 1/2 QB), Dallas Goedert (high-end No. 2 TE), Marvin Mims, Troy Franklin, Evan Engram, Broncos DST

With Trey Benson out we are certain to have some sort of backfield split Emari Demercado, Michael Carter and Bam Knight (who's played only special teams this season). Demercado has rarely been given the chance to be a feature back -- he's excelled in pass protection (playcaller Drew Petzing talked about that this week) and is a solid receiver. Demercado has three career games with 10-plus touches, all in 2023, and all when the Cardinals seemingly had no other options they could trust. It is worth noting he took all of Arizona's snaps inside the 10-yard line late last week after Benson got hurt and even scored on a reception. Even if he loses rushing downs work to Carter, who is unquestionably faster, Demercado's role could be enough to make him more valuable this week and moving forward until Benson is back. The Titans defense ranked fifth-worst in defensive total rush EPA, third-worst in explosive runs allowed (11.7%) with 5.0 yards per carry given up and six rushing touchdowns to running backs through four games. I wouldn't feel confident starting any Cardinals running back this week but I'd give a slight lean to Demercado if I had to pick one up.

MUST-STARTS: Trey McBride

STARTS: Kyler Murray, Marvin Harrison Jr., Cardinals DST

FLEX: Tony Pollard, Emari Demercado (PPR preferred), Elic Ayomanor (low-end PPR flex)

SITS: Cam Ward, Michael Carter (desperation RB), Calvin Ridley, Greg Dortch, Michael Wilson, Chig Okonkwo, Titans DST

If Bucky Irving is out, expect Rachaad White to see a majority of the touches with Sean Tucker pitching in. White has already hovered around 30% of the snaps from week to week, closer to 40% on third downs. I can't imagine Tucker playing passing downs much, especially with Tampa Bay's offensive line so tattered. If Tucker gets hot running the ball like he did in Week 6 last year while splitting work with a then-unknown Irving, then he'll make some serious inroads on taking touches away from White, who averaged 2.6 yards in 11 carries against the Jets and Eagles. Neither should be heavily trusted versus a Seahawks run defense that's let up just 3.3 yards per carry and zero rush touchdowns with a league-best ranking in defense total rush EPA. However, two running backs have had big games against them in PPR thanks to their receptions: Christian McCaffrey (nine catches and 142 total yards) and Jaylen Warren (four catches and 134 total yards). It keeps the door open for White to be solid.

As last week's game rolled along, Chris Godwin began separating with some speed on top of all the other ways we've seen him move away from defenders before. One specific play saw Godwin get a step on his man and streak across the end zone with his hand up, only to find Baker Mayfield under pressure and then underthrow him for an interception. His role in his first game was encouraging: 55 snaps with most of them out wide, 93% route rate, 10 targets and a surprising 14.6-yard average depth of target. The stats were bad, though, which doesn't help him in this week's matchup at the Seahawks. Wideouts have averaged a third-lowest 1.31 PPR points per target against them with Marvin Harrison and Chris Olave (10-plus targets each) finding Fantasy success. Godwin is no better than a flex.

MUST-STARTS: Bucky Irving, Jaxon Smith-Njigba

STARTS: Baker Mayfield (low-end starter), Emeka Egbuka, Kenneth Walker III (No. 2 RB), Seahawks DST

FLEX: Chris Godwin, Zach Charbonnet (low-end flex)

SITS: Sam Darnold (high-end No. 2 QB), Rachaad White (would be low-end No. 2 RB in PPR if Irving is out), Sean Tucker (worth stashing; would be desperation RB if Irving is out), Cooper Kupp (desperation PPR flex), Tory Horton (desperation flex), A.J. Barner (desperation TE), Sterling Shepard, Cade Otton, Buccaneers DST

With cornerback D.J. Reed out and cornerback Terrion Arnold uncertain for Sunday, we could see a tough matchup become a little easier for the Bengals amazing receiving duo. Amik Robertson and Rock Ya-Sin are veteran cover guys, but neither are solid enough to consistently haggle Ja'Marr Chase or Tee Higgins like the Broncos cornerbacks did last week. That means the Bengals must protect Jake Browning really well for their receivers to have a shot at doing anything good this week. That'll be a challenge: The Lions blitz at the second-highest rate (41.4% of snaps) and are second in sacks (14) and first in sack rate (10.6% of dropbacks). You may have been able to guess that the Bengals offensive line has allowed the fifth-highest pass rush pressure rate this year with 13 sacks to boot. All but eight of Browning's 25 pass attempts were out of his hands inside of 2.5 seconds; of the remaining 17, 12 were completed for just 5.5 yards per attempt. The Bengals receivers may have a couple of big plays because of the depleted Lions secondary, but a big week for the entire passing offense still seems unlikely.

MUST-STARTS: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Ja'Marr Chase (No. 2 WR),

STARTS: Jared Goff (low-end starter), David Montgomery, Chase Brown (low-end No. 2 RB), Sam LaPorta (middle-end TE), Lions DST

FLEX: Tee Higgins, Jameson Williams

SITS: Jake Browning, Mike Gesicki, Andrei Iosivas, Isaac TeSlaa, Samaje Perine, Bengals DST

Things have been bad for Ladd McConkey, especially last week when he had some drops on targets he was reeling in last year. He's moving as quickly as ever, but his lack of splash plays (Quentin Johnston has taken many of those) and a lack of heavy target volume (Keenan Allen and Johnston have taken many of those) have turned him into a lesser Fantasy option. Even when Justin Herbert's been pressured McConkey's had a weak 13.2% target per route run rate (Keenan Allen's at 19.3%). I bring that up because Herbert figures to be under pressure versus the Commanders now that tackle Joe Alt is out. The Commanders aren't typically blitz heavy but rank ninth in pass rush pressure rate and have scored 10 sacks so far. If there's a glimmer of hope it's that the Commanders have struggled against receivers lined up in the slot this year, yielding 14.2 yards per catch and 2.11 PPR points per target. Problem is that Allen equally benefits. You might be better off leaving McConkey on your bench if you can.

STARTS: Jayden Daniels, Justin Herbert, Omarion Hampton (No. 1 RB), Quentin Johnston, Deebo Samuel, Keenan Allen (low-end No. 2 PPR WR), Zach Ertz

FLEX: Ladd McConkey (PPR)

SITS: Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Chris Rodriguez, Jeremy McNichols, Luke McCaffrey, Oronde Gadsden (deep stash), Chargers DST, Commanders DST

I wouldn't say Stefon Diggs ran as fast as he used to, but he was stealthy with his route running, often separating from Panthers cornerback Mike Jackson because of his footwork. Diggs ramped up in Week 4, setting season-highs in route rate (82%, way higher than before), target share (41.2% was crazy) and of course Fantasy points (16.1 PPR points). I especially liked that he still played in slot a lot and found ways to make himself an available target against zone coverage. This was in a game Drake Maye threw 17 times in -- he's probably going to have to throw more this week at Buffalo. The Bills have had some issues with receivers -- Christian Benford has allowed four touchdowns this year -- so there should be opportunities for Diggs to keep his numbers moderately hot.

MUST-STARTS: Josh Allen, James Cook

STARTS: Drake Maye, Stefon Diggs (low-end No. 2 WR in PPR), Dalton Kincaid, Hunter Henry Bills DST (low-end DST)

FLEX: Khalil Shakir (No. 3 WR), TreVeyon Henderson

SITS: Rhamondre Stevenson, Keon Coleman, Kayshon Boutte, Josh Palmer, Demario Douglas, Antonio Gibson, Ray Davis, Patriots DST

The good news is that Brian Thomas Jr. made fewer mistakes last week than the week before. The bad news is that the Jaguars didn't need Thomas to upend the 49ers as Trevor Lawrence didn't face much pressure and didn't push the ball much downfield. This week figures to be much more challenging for the Jaguars on two fronts: One, the Chiefs are among the pressure-heaviest defenses in the league, and two, they're generally unpredictable with their coverages. That's a bad combination for Lawrence, who is still not a pristine processor. And it's very likely the Chiefs will still direct tight coverage on Thomas even though he hasn't been super this season. Lawrence hasn't played the Chiefs since 2023 but he's been under 16 Fantasy points in his last two against them. I'd be concerned about Thomas and Lawrence having solid weeks.

STARTS: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Etienne, Xavier Worthy, Travis Kelce (low-end No. 2 TE), Brenton Strange (low-end No. 2 TE), Chiefs DST

FLEX: Brian Thomas Jr., Marquise Brown (low-end PPR flex)

SITS: Trevor Lawrence, Tyquan Thornton, Kareem Hunt, Isiah Pacheco, Travis Hunter, Bhayshul Tuten, Brashard Smith (stash), Jaguars DST

The Jets have some defensive issues: Tackle machine Quincy Williams is on injured reserve, as is his backup Marcelino McCrary-Ball. It might mean a rookie starts there. In the secondary, new outside cornerback Brandon Stephens has been awful in coverage and nickelback Michael Carter II has been a liability as well. They're also struggling to get pressure on the quarterback, ranking fourth-worst in pass rush pressure rate while calling blitzes at a top-10 rate. All of this makes for a really good matchup for Tua Tagovailoa, who's still getting the ball out quick but not quite as quick as last year. That's a good thing since it gives his receivers more time to separate. He's also been very efficient in the red zone on the rare occasions when the Dolphins have been there. Tyreek Hill figures to see a lot of Sauce Gardner in coverage, which is a small problem you'll ignore when you set your lineup, but the rest of the receiving group for Miami should do well.

SATURDAY P.M. UPDATE: The Dolphins have blitzed at the second highest rate this season with very little to show for it. The most pressures they've notched in a game this year is nine. Nine times. That lack of pass rush pressure on three opponents this year (six sacks total) combined with a really undermanned secondary helps spark optimism for Justin Fields to make some quality throws much like he did in Week 1. Tack on his rushing potential (41 rush yards per game in his past eight starts including his shortened Week 2 outing), and Fields should be a serviceable No. 1 QB.

MUST-STARTS: De'Von Achane

STARTS: Justin Fields, Tyreek Hill (borderline No. 1/2 WR), Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall,

FLEX: Jaylen Waddle (No. 3 WR)

SITS: Tua Tagovailoa (borderline No. 1/2 QB), Ollie Gordon II (stash), Braelon Allen, Darren Waller (stash), Dolphins DST, Jets DST

Bo Nix was so close to a huge game last week as he overshot Marvin Mims on two deep balls and Courtland Sutton on another, off by maybe a yard on each of them. Nix also seemed a little too jumpy in the pocket as the Chargers got over a 40% pass rush pressure rate on him. Luckily, Nix faces a Bengals defense that hasn't blitzed much and is ninth-worst in pass rush pressure rate. A comfortable Nix has proven to be a good thing -- in 14 career games when he's been pressured under 33% of his dropbacks, Nix has delivered at least 20 Fantasy points nine times with six of those being 26-plus points. That includes a 27.9 banger in a Week 17 loss at Cincinnati last year.

MUST-STARTS: Ja'Marr Chase

STARTS: Bo Nix, JK Dobbins (No. 2 RB), Courtland Sutton (high-end No. 2 WR), Tee Higgins (borderline No. 2/3 WR), Broncos DST

FLEX: Chase Brown

SITS: Jake Browning, Troy Franklin (stash), R.J. Harvey (stash), Marvin Mims, Tahj Brooks, Mike Gesicki, Noah Fant, Evan Engram, Bengals DST

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