‘Circuit-breaker’ to unlock Curnow deal; $4.5m play explained: Mega 21-player trade state of play

There’s one match remaining in the 2025 AFL season.

But after the premiership winner is confirmed, all 18 clubs will officially turn their attention to the exchange period.

Speaking on Fox Footy on Grand Final day, Herald Sun reporter Jon Ralph had the trade state of play on 21 players.

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What happens at Brisbane?

Jon Ralph says …

“It’s just perfect succession planning for the Brisbane footy club.

“It looks like Cal Ah Chee will sign up to a free agency deal at Adelaide and they will lose him.

“I think Brandon Starcevich is more likely to accept a six-year deal at West Coast. He’s got a two-year deal at Brisbane, but if they won a flag, would he be thinking to himself: ‘Maybe I chase the three-peat.’ He will have to work through that in the next week or so.

“But even then if they do move on, it gives them some salary cap space. We know they’re bringing in Oscar Allen and Sam Draper, but then Dan Annable – a top-five draft pick as another elite midfielder.

“They’ll try and secure Will Ashcroft on a long-term deal over summer and the money they will save with those departing free agents just allows them to keep on keeping on with an elite side with another seven or eight years in this window.”

Will the Cats add Curnow and get even stronger?

Jon Ralph says …

“James Worpel will join Geelong on a four-year deal. They feel like they’ve got an elite midfielder, but didn’t have a lot of injuries (this year), so he brings more of a depth component there as an inside mid.

“Charlie Curnow? Yes he would like to play with Geelong and Geelong would certainly like to have him as well, even as they consider Rowan Marshall – a St Kilda ruckman who they’re not sure St Kilda will trade.

“The issue is even if they were prepared to give up Pick 18 and Shannon Neale (for Curnow) – and they’re not prepared to give up Shannon Neale – and even if that was the trade package, Carlton would be saying; ‘Thanks but no thanks. Charlie you will be packing your runners and we’ll see you on the first day of the pre-season.’

“So Sydney is a more likely landing spot, given they are prepared to offer two first-round picks. Will Hayward, who was a free agent who considered Carlton last year, potentially is a circuit-breaker there. But again Carlton’s strong view, as we speak, today is that Charlie Curnow is not for trading.”

Has the pendulum swung in the Zach Merrett situation?

Jon Ralph says …

“Zach Merrett be at Essendon’s best and fairest and then he’ll head off to Europe and see if a trade can get done in his absence.

“He went the nuclear option. It seemed for a couple days there that it (a trade) would happen and would work. And then we saw the new president in Andrew Welsh, he had the nuclear codes and disarmed the nuclear bomb! So all of a sudden, Essendon is saying: ‘We’ve copped the worst of this and we believe that even if he’s not our captain he’s absolutely able and ready and should feel he can stay at this football club.’

“There are other football clubs around that are keen on him. Clearly Hawthorn is saying Pick 8 is about what we’re prepared to offer. They’re not prepared to offer two first-round picks as they would’ve for Harley Reid. Why? Because he (Merrett) turns 30 next Friday and they feel like it’s just not worth giving all that up.

“It could still happen for Zach Merrett to Hawthorn, but I think these two parties are so far apart so much would need to change in the next 10 days.”

What next for Christian Petracca?

Jon Ralph says …

“Both parties are interested in a trade, but Melbourne is telling other people across the AFL landscape they’re ‘not rebuilding’, so it would need to be an amazing deal here. They’re very keen to secure Judd McvVee.

“Matt Crouch retired – what does that matter? The No, 5 jumper is available at Adelaide – wouldn’t he look very good in Adelaide colours as well.

“Gold Coast is keen as well, but they feel like they can’t get in front of Christian Petracca. So the view there is Adelaide has first dibs on him and are really trying to make it work.

“Plenty of water to go under the bridge, but that seems like it’s working towards some kind of conclusion.

Will Collingwood lose one – or both – of their veteran forwards?

Jon Ralph says …

“The Suns officially have offered three years at $550,000 for Jamie Elliott. They believe the Pies have now lifted their offer – somewhere above $500,000 – so that’s a decision that needs to be made.

“Brody Mihocek was in tears after the preliminary final. It was an emotional loss, but a lot of his Pies teammates inferred that it potentially might’ve been his last game and he knew it was his last game for Collingwood.

“He has a three-year offer at Melbourne. The industry vibe is that he will move on, but he has not made an official decision there.

“Mason Cox, if he gets a Collingwood deal, would be one year on minimum chips. Tom Mitchell is another one who is also exploring his options. Both of those players have been told: ‘We cannot guarantee you a deal next year.’”

Are St Kilda really offering Sam Flanders a five-year deal worth over $900,000 per season?

Jon Ralph says …

“They certainly are, that’s the offer. They’re also prepared to offer Pick 7 in pretty much a straight swap for Sam Flanders from Gold Coast. Clubs like Carlton, who are in the mix and met Flanders, just don’t believe he’s the kind of A-grader who would be worth $4.5 million.

“But certainly St Kilda is desperate to try and use the next two years to convince Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera it is worth staying long-term. Nas is on $2 million, they’re bringing in another $3 million of salary cap commitments, they’re telling other clubs Tom De Koning is only worth $1.65 million.

“They have saved about 20 per cent of their salary cap over the last couple of years, so in real terms only really operating on 80 per cent of their salary cap. But even that, you save that $7 million, all of these deals are long-term. So they’re all-in, not only on their young players, but also on players who they believe will help them keep Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera as a one-club player.”

Could Gold Coast land Jamarra Ugle-Hagan?

Jon Ralph says …

“Gold Coast is very interested in Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, but very cautious. If they did secure a deal, it would be full of contract components … it would effectively give them escape clauses.

“Jarrod Harbrow is their Indigenous welfare manager – they think he’s elite – and they think their culture is elite.

“Water under the bridge there, but they’re the only club officially interested so far.”

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