Socceroos reach crunch time with World Cup 2026 qualification in sight

Australia’s rapid recovery under Tony Popovic in qualification for the 2026 World Cup has left the Socceroos on the cusp of a place in North America with two group games to play, and a direct berth could be secured as early as Friday morning.

But the result of the Socceroos’ match on Thursday in Perth against Japan – group leaders and already qualified – cannot alone guarantee the qualification fate of Australia, currently lying behind the Samurai Blue in second place.

Instead, the group’s other automatic qualification slot will be determined by the performances of third-placed Saudi Arabia in their two remaining matches – first away to Bahrain then on Tuesday in Jeddah against the Socceroos – and fourth-placed Indonesia who need two victories and a miracle.

Saudi Arabia are Australia’s main rivals, trailing by just three points, but with a goal difference of -2 compared to the Socceroos’ +7. It means if Australia avoid defeat against the Green Falcons next week, they are almost guaranteed second place.

And if they do something they haven’t done in 16 years on Thursday – beat the Samurai Blue, who have sent a squad missing several key players – it will be time for Socceroos fans to start checking flights to Mexico, the US and Canada.

The players are aware of the odd qualification situation, and the strange dynamic whereby – even if they win on Thursday – they won’t be able to fully celebrate after the game.

“If we do get the win, hopefully, which we will, we are obviously almost there,” defender Milos Degenek said on Tuesday. “We’ll have to wait and see how Bahrain play with Saudi, obviously.”

That game in Riffa kicks off at 2am AEST.

The permutations are largely positive for the Socceroos, but just last year they looked precarious. A shock home loss to Bahrain and draw with Indonesia triggered the departure of former coach Graham Arnold, who had taken the Socceroos to the round of 16 in Qatar and a gallant defeat to eventual winners Argentina.

Popovic won his first match against China, is yet to taste defeat, and appears to have earned the trust of the players. “The way we see the national team is completely different to what it was before,” Degenek said. “There’s so much pride and there’s so much, I guess, love for the shirt and the culture that the boss has brought in here.”

The team has benefited from the new qualifying format for the 48-team tournament to be held in the US, Canada and Mexico, an increase of 16 teams compared to Qatar and an extra three slots for the Asian Football Confederation.

Even if the Socceroos let slip their automatic qualification opportunity in coming days, there is a fourth round and, failing that, a playoff phase. “Now that there’s more countries at the World Cup, there’s a – if you don’t qualify through this group stage – another group stage, and you get through that group stage is another playoff game. So there’s another almost a year of football if you don’t qualify directly,” Degenek said. “So hopefully we’ll do the job to on Thursday, and hopefully Bahrain can do a job for us as well.”

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View image in fullscreen Milos Degenek signs autographs following a Socceroos training session at HBF Park. Photograph: Paul Kane/Getty Images

Failure to qualify for the 48-team tournament would be damning for this generation of players, coaches and administrators. But the Socceroos, ranked 26 by Fifa, are trying not to look beyond Thursday’s showdown.

They have not beaten Japan since 2009, and have done so only twice this century. The first was the famous 3-1 comeback inspired by Tim Cahill in the 2006 World Cup. Three years later he scored twice again in a 2-1 victory at the MCG.

Since then it has been 10 matches without an Australian victory, including a defeat in the 2011 Asian Cup final and five losses in six matches between 2013 and 2022. That run was ended by the stoic display in Saitama in October, when the Socceroos came away with a 1-1 draw. That result, and a draw with Saudi Arabia three months ago, are the only matches in which the Samurai Blue have dropped points this phase, which has consolidated their place as Asia’s leading power.

The side ranked 15 in the world could afford to leave out European stars including Brighton’s Kaoru Mitoma, Ao Tanaka of Leeds, Borussia Mönchengladbach’s Ko Itakura, Feyenoord’s Ayase Ueda and Sporting’s Hidemasa Morita from the squad for Thursday’s match, which includes seven first-time call-ups.

Degenek challenged the notion that this would make Japan any less formidable, warning the new and fringe players will be motivated to earn their place in the squad for the World Cup. “It’s even harder for us that those so-called stars are out, because the boys that are coming in, whether they’re from the J-League or other clubs in Europe, are going to want to prove to the boss that they should be there at the World Cup,” he said. “So it’s not going to be a walk in the park.”

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