NFL Anytime Touchdown Prop Picks, Week 3 Preview

Every week of the NFL regular season, bettors can find matchups to exploit, whether it's a game spread, total or player props. I'm here specifically to talk about the NFL anytime touchdown props for NFL Week 3 on Sunday, September 21.

Last season, I picked Anytime TD props for every Sunday afternoon game and finished at 123-269 (31.4%) with +44.1 units in profit for an 11% ROI.

If you plan to tail all these bets, please use proper bankroll management. For players listed as “Verdict,” those are 1-unit bets. If a player is listed in “Verdict” as a “Sprinkle,” then it would be a 0.2-unit wager, as those are typically long-shot odds.

Let's break down my NFL anytime touchdown picks for Sunday of NFL Week 3.

Packers vs. Browns

Sunday, Sept. 21

1:00 p.m. ET

FOX

This game could be a beatdown of epic proportions if the Browns aren’t able to protect QB Joe Flacco. He’s only been sacked four times through two games, but the Packers are bringing pressure at a top-five rate through two weeks with Micah Parsons in the fold.

This means I’m not in love with the Browns' wide receiver options this week, as I expect Flacco to have less time to throw, which means screens and quick throws over the middle could be on the docket.

That’s why I’m going with TE David Njoku in this one, as I think the pendulum has swung too far on his TD odds.

With Flacco under center, Njoku had some of his best moments in the NFL, and facing the Packers this week, he could be in line for more targets because Green Bay plays zone at a top-five rate while also ranking top-five using Cover 2 defense.

Well, Njoku’s targets-per-route-rate typically go up when facing that type of coverage, and he’s led the Browns in end zone targets in each of the last two seasons.

I’m not denying the presence of rookie Harold Fannin Jr., but if we’re getting Njoku over +300, that’s when we get into the sweet spot for his TD odds.

Then, when you look at Weeks 1 and 2, tight ends seem to have the most success thus far against Green Bay, with Lions' TE Sam LaPorta leading the Lions in receiving in Week 1, while Zach Ertz did the same for Washington in Week 2.

Watching Browns games through two weeks, it seems they insist on remaining a man-coverage operation as they rank first in man defense rate through two games.

This is consistent with Jim Schwartz as their defensive coordinator because they’ve been top-3 in man coverage in each of the last three seasons.

That’s why we are going back to WR Dontayvion Wicks. He’s led the Packers in target share through two games against man coverage, which is what we saw last year as well.

WR Jayden Reed is out, and while I like WR Matthew Golden, he’s still a rookie who might not be able to win on his routes as effectively as Wicks.

TE Tucker Kraft also had an injury practice this week and he may be limited or not play at all.

I don’t expect a ton of touchdowns in this game, and if it’s the Josh Jacobs show, so be it, but if the Packers are airing it out, I like Wicks to be the main beneficiary of the Browns' aggressive secondary.

Verdict: Dontayvion Wicks +275 | David Njoku +360

Texans vs. Jaguars

Sunday, Sept. 21

1:00 p.m. ET

CBS

I’m not sure if we can take the Texans' passing offense as “improved” after two weeks. QB CJ Stroud has only managed to have 31 total completions in 2025, and caught the Buccaneers napping early to get an early touchdown with WR Nico Collins.

The only player I’ve truly considered based on how he looked in Week 2 is RB3 Woody Marks at +550. He looked explosive with every touch last week, while Nick Chubb still seems to be lagging from the injuries.

Let’s sprinkle on Marks this week, but if you like a narrative, WR Christian Kirk is +350 and in a “revenge game” spot facing the Jags.

As for the Jags, there’s no chance I’m betting on the outside wide receivers like Brian Thomas Jr. or Dyami Brown.

The Texans' cornerbacks have been on lockdown so far, and don’t seem to be letting up anytime soon.

To me, that leaves only two options, and that’s TE Brenton Strange and WR Travis Hunter.

The Texans did allow a touchdown to a tight end in Week 1, but despite that, they’re top-five in targets, receptions and yards allowed to the position, which is a carryover from 2024 when they ranked No. 1 in defensive DVOA against the TE-position.

That’s why I default to Travis Hunter, who’s seen 14 targets through two games and has a higher targets-per-route-run than BTJ or Dyami Brown.

With how much draft capital they spent on him and his ascending target rate, I think Liam Coen and the Jags will design some more downfield plays to get Hunter in the end zone.

Verdict: Travis Hunter +250 | Sprinkle on Woody Marks +550

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Bengals vs. Vikings

Sunday, Sept. 21

1:00 p.m. ET

CBS

A battle of backup NFL quarterbacks might seem like a downer for betting touchdowns, but that’s actually when the market can be fun due to uncertainty.

Sportsbooks tend to shade down the star players in these offenses, so when you would normally get +105 for a WR1 with the star QB, you might now see an odds spike closer to +160, which would create decent value.

This is why we’re keeping it simple and just going with WR Ja’Marr Chase for the Bengals.

I won’t go into detail about why Chase is great against certain coverages because he’s arguably the best WR in the NFL.

What I will mention is he’s a great price at +155, and even with Jake Browning at QB, he should be closer to +110.

I’d also be remiss if I didn’t mention that Browning’s nose for the end zone is hard to ignore because he’s scored four touchdowns (all from the one-yard line) in seven appearances as the Bengals QB (six games in 2023, one in 2025).

This isn’t saying he will do it again, but at +900, that’s worth a sprinkle considering we watched QB Caleb Williams run all over the Vikings in Week 1 and could’ve scored twice.

I know we haven’t seen a tight end truly torch the Bengals yet this season, but I think TJ Hockenson could be in line to come up huge.

Cincy didn’t really address their defensive weakness to the TE in the offseason, so while they may not have allowed a TD yet, they’re still bottom-five in targets, catches and yards to the position. So, it’s only a matter of time.

I considered TE2 Josh Oliver, but his route participation is down significantly through two games, so he may only see one or two targets.

Verdict: Ja’Marr Chase +155 | TJ Hockenson +290 | Sprinkle on Jake Browning +900

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Falcons vs. Panthers

Sunday, Sept. 21

1:00 p.m. ET

FOX

The Falcons like to mix up their defensive looks. One week, they went with a more man-heavy approach, like in Week 2 against the Vikings. Whereas they went to more zone in Week 1 against the Buccaneers.

The one phase of their defense that did remain consistent through two games is that they tend to play a higher rate of Cover 3 than most teams and sprinkle in above-average rates of Cover 6.

Facing the Panthers, and likely without star cornerback AJ Terrell, I expect Atlanta to lean more into a zone defense for Week 3 with a lot of blitzing of Panthers QB Bryce Young.

If that plays out how I envision, then it could be a long day for the Panthers' offense. I’m not going to get caught up in the Week 2 result, which saw them score three touchdowns in the final 17 minutes of game time.

That was more the Cardinals taking their foot off the gas. This means we may need to dig at some long shots instead of looking at RB Chuba Hubbard or WR Tet McMillan.

That’s why I’d rather dig into a WR like Hunter Renfrow or TE Ja’Tavion Sanders at +400.

Both played over 80% of snaps in Week 2, with Sanders leading the Panthers in target rate against zone coverage, while Renfrow may be the new Adam Thielen safety blanket/possession receiver for Bryce Young after scoring twice. I’d put a half-unit on each.

The Panthers have played zone at a top-three rate through two games of the season, and including 2024, they have played Cover 3 at the second-highest rate in the NFL since Dave Canales took over as head coach.

All roads lead to Drake London at +160. He absolutely crushed this defense last year with 16 catches and three touchdowns in two games. Despite being held out of the end zone through two games, he still leads the Falcons in target rate against Cover 3.

He’s too talented, and the Falcons target him way too often.

It’s boring, but unless you want to hope and pray TE Kyle Pitts will finally score, I’d rather just bank on London.

Verdict: Drake London +150 | Hunter Renfrow +400 (0.5u) | Ja’Tavion Sanders +400 (0.5u)

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Steelers vs. Patriots

Sunday, Sept. 21

1:00 p.m. ET

CBS

The Patriots' offense has had some ups-and-downs through two weeks, and if they want to have success throwing the ball against the Steelers, they need players that can win against man coverage and Cover 3.

The Steelers defense has played man coverage at the 11th-highest rate through two weeks, while ranking 10th in Cover 3 rate.

This means I think we should go back to Kayshon Boutte because he’s seen two end zone targets through two games while also scoring a TD against man coverage.

There also seems to be rumblings that WR Demario Douglas might be in the doghouse after only playing 15% of snaps in Week 2.

Outside receivers seem to be doing the most damage to the Patriots through two weeks. This likely could be attributed to the absence of All-Pro CB Christian Watson, but if he, along with CB Carlton Davis, are both back in the lineup, it makes me uneasy backing WR DK Metcalf.

Instead, I think Calvin Austin III could be in line for a big one, as he’s playing 85% of snaps through two games, and is serving as the Steelers' deep threat, currently leading the team in aDOT.

Verdict: Kayshon Boutte +300 | Calvin Austin III +350

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Rams vs. Eagles

Sunday, Sept. 21

1:00 p.m. ET

FOX

I’m not sure if I’m ready to give up completely on the Eagles' passing offense, but when QB Jalen Hurts and RB Saquon Barkley are this effective, it makes sense why they just don’t bother throwing it.

This week, though, I think the Eagles might need to pick it up a notch because the Rams are coming to town.

I was heavy on AJ Brown last week, as I thought the matchup against the Chiefs would be a way for him to get it going since they play such heavy man coverage.

Well, the Chiefs shifted their entire game plan to stop the pass with a zone approach, and that pretty much was a field day to run the ball for the Eagles.

The Rams will likely adopt some of that style, but if they play Cover 1 at the same rate they’ve played it through two games, Brown might explode for two touchdowns.

I’ve bet Rams WR Davante Adams in both games this season, and if they keep offering at odds over +150, I’m going to keep hammering it.

Adams caught his first TD last week against the Titans, and the Rams made this trade for him to combat the Eagles' secondary.

He’s already got five end zone targets through two games, and I don’t see that discontinuing in this playoff rematch.

With the Eagles playing zone at a top-10 rate, I like Adams to keep running it up in Week 3.

Verdict: Davante Adams +180 | AJ Brown +190

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Raiders vs. Commanders

Sunday, Sept. 21

1:00 p.m. ET

FOX

If Marcus Mariota is the starting quarterback for the Commanders in Week 3, it could get ugly for betting Commanders' TD scorers. Mariota’s scramble rate is on par with QB Jayden Daniels in his career, but isn’t nearly as effective throwing the football.

In both starts last year, he failed to complete a pass over 30 yards, and seemed more content in scrambling when the plays broke down.

Inside the 10-yard line, he might also call his own number as well, which is a bit of a downer, but still think there could be upside for some Commanders with lower aDOTs who can make plays after the catch.

In this case, we have to go with the tried and true option, TE Zach Ertz at +275. The veteran has scored a TD in both games so far this season, and he scored in both games with Mariota as the starter last year.

The Raiders have run zone at the highest rate in the NFL through two weeks with a Cover 3 rate of over 50%.

Ertz is the only Commander to have a TD against zone defense so far this season.

Now, WR Deebo Samuel technically has the best receiver metrics against zone this year, and should see plenty of targets while he’s healthy, but at +170, it’s not quite enough value for me this week.

For as much zone the Raiders’ defense plays, it’s flipped when it comes to Washington, as the Commanders have gone with a man-coverage approach since they acquired CB Marcus Lattimore.

This season, the Raiders haven’t faced much man defense through two weeks. So, there’s not a ton of data to parse from, but the main takeaway is that both TE Brock Bowers and WR Jakobi Meyers have seen a boost when playing man defense.

That being said, Bowers looks to still be recovering from his knee injury and Meyers' TD odds are just a smidge too low for me at +200 or less.

Instead, I’m going to ride with my guy Nick Giffen and bet on Dont’e Thornton for a touchdown.

He played over 80% of snaps in Week 2, and with how much man coverage and single-high safety the Commanders play, Thornton could easily get behind the defense and rip a score.

With his 6’4" frame, lightning quick speed, and leading the Raiders in aDOT by a mile, no way am I passing on him at +400 or better odds.

Verdict: Zach Ertz +280 | Dont’e Thornton +440

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Jets vs. Buccaneers

Sunday, Sept. 21

1:00 p.m. ET

FOX

This isn’t meant to be a knock on Buccaneers' WR Mike Evans, who has consistently been one of the top wide receivers in the NFL for 10+ years. However, there are times when he faces man coverage with a shutdown corner, and he kind of gets phased out.

Through two games, he’s faced a lockdown corner in AJ Terrell (Falcons) and Derek Stingley Jr. (Texans), and both were tight with coverage and not giving him an inch.

Now, he’s facing the Jets with another shutdown corner in Sauce Gardner.

I know Evans hasn’t gone three-plus games without a TD since Baker Mayfield became the Bucs quarterback, but at +115, I’d rather look elsewhere, like RB2 Rachaad White, who saw his role increase in Week 2 with the Bucs seeing more success on the ground and taking away the opponent’s pass-defense edge.

If you can get Evans at +150 or better prior to kickoff, fire away, but anything less, it’s not enough value for me.

Prior to the season starting, I had bet the Jets for the Lowest Scoring Team.

After Week 1, I thought this ticket might be toast, but after Week 2 saw Justin Fields leave the game with a concussion and then Tyrod Taylor came in, which made me feel a bit more reassured on that bet.

I like Taylor as a real-life quarterback, especially in the backup role where his true value lies. However, when he leads an offense, the pass attack drops off a cliff. You have to go back all the way to 2023 to find a game where he had more than one passing touchdown.

If you want to sprinkle on his rushing touchdown at +500 or better, that intrigues me, but it’s important to note that he hasn’t rushed for a touchdown in an NFL game since 2021.

Verdict: Rachaad White +350 | Pass on Jets

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Colts vs. Titans

Sunday, Sept. 21

1:00 p.m. ET

CBS

The Titans play zone and man as more of a mix-and-match as opposed to leaning into one particular style through two weeks. They still rank above league-average in zone rate with some Cover 1 sprinkled in.

The main takeaway about their defense is that they haven’t really stopped the pass at all through two weeks, and outside WR1s like Davante Adams and Courtland Sutton both scored a TD against them.

Normally, this would mean I’d be down for Josh Downs (+320), but he seems to be nursing an injury and missed some practice week, along with rookie TE Tyler Warren.

If that’s the case, this logically means we should pivot to Michael Pittman at +220, but I’d rather go with WR Alec Pierce in this spot.

He’s playing over 90% of snaps and has seen two end zone targets, while also being the Colts' deep threat, currently leading the team in aDOT.

Much like the Titans, who seem to be trying whatever defense that works, the Colts' defense has gone with both a zone and man coverage approach through two weeks, after ranking near the top of the NFL in zone rate in each of the last two seasons.

I expect Indy to lean back on that style of coverage this week to ensure WRs Calvin Ridley and Elic Ayomanor don’t get behind them like Broncos WR Marvin Mims did in Week 2.

I’m likely passing on Titans this week, but if you wanted to sprinkle on QB Cam Ward to score at +750, that’s likely where I’d default, since the majority of the value this week on Titans TEs like Gunnar Helm or Chig Okonkwo, and I don’t trust the Titans' passing game enough to score more than one touchdown.

Verdict: Alec Pierce +390 | Sprinkle on Cam Ward +650

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Saints vs. Seahawks

Sunday, Sept. 21

4:05 p.m. ET

CBS

This is what I wrote last week about the Saints offense and it came together like a perfect plan:

“[Juwan] Johnson led the team with eight receptions in Week 1 and doesn’t seem to have much competition at his position as he played 99% of snaps. Unless you want to bet WR Rashid Shaheed to beat the Niners deep (which isn’t a terrible idea), I’ll side with Juwan Johnson for Week 2.”

Well, both Johnson and Shaheed found the end zone in Week 2, and both cashed their TD props at +350.

This week, I’m going right back to Johnson because facing the Seahawks, this could be another matchup where he’ll be counted on to be an end zone target.

The Seahawks' defense mostly plays zone with man coverage at a bottom-10 rate. They also tended to use Cover 4 and Cover 6 at a top-five rate.

While those typically apply to Shaheed, you’re likely counting on one bomb over the top and while that somewhat worked with Derek Carr, I have no faith in Spencer Rattler to make those types of completions downfield.

With the Seahawks ranking seventh in defensive DVOA vs the deep ball, let’s stick with the TE again.

The term “washed” gets tossed around a lot these days and while Seahawks WR Cooper Kupp isn’t the offensive player of the year anymore, he still has tremendous receiver skills to complement this offense.

Naturally, this passing offense will still mainly go through WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

It’s difficult to endorse him for a touchdown bet at odds of less than +150 because when the Seahawks get to the red zone, they rarely look for him.

That’s why I want to pivot to Kupp here because he looked to finally be on the same page as QB Sam Darnold in Week 2 with nine targets, while also playing the most snaps of any Seahawks WR through two games.

Verdict: Cooper Kupp +220 | Juwan Johnson +340

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Broncos vs. Chargers

Sunday, Sept. 21

4:05 p.m. ET

CBS

The Broncos play man coverage at a top-five rate while also playing a top-three rate of Cover 1 because when you have All-Pro CB Patrick Surtain patrolling, you can be more aggressive in the secondary.

Still, I’m not jumping off the Quentin Johnston TD train anytime soon. We cashed on him in both Week 1 and Week 2, and the main reason why we’re seeing these odds at +250 or above is that he may enter the shadow realm known as the Surtain Curtain.

That being said, I’m not sold that he’ll shadow QJ the entire game because he might be needed more to shut down WR Ladd McConkey or WR Keenan Allen. And through two games, Johnston leads the Chargers in target share against man defense while also scoring both touchdowns.

I won’t quit QJ until he quits on me!

The Chargers' defense hasn’t really been tested through two weeks. Both the Chiefs and Raiders were compromised from injuries to key players. So, it��s difficult to give LAC too much credit, but I think they might be vulnerable to some touchdowns against the Broncos.

The issue with picking Broncos TD scorers is that head coach Sean Payton always seems to be scheming up packages for lesser-known players to score. Like when we saw Adam Trautman hit last week (+700) or when TE Nate Adkins scored three times in 2024.

That’s why it's a tough sell for me to just bank on WR1 Courtland Sutton or WR2 Troy Franklin.

At this stage, I’d rather take a swing on QB Bo Nix to scramble for a touchdown. He scored four times last season, while also having a receiving TD (hat tip to Sean Payton scheme).

Last year, over 75% of all Nix’s scrambles came when he wasn’t blitzed, and his scramble rate dropped off a cliff when he saw pressure.

Well, the Chargers are both bottom-five in blitz rate and pressure rate per dropback this season, which checks both boxes.

The Chargers rely on staying back in zone coverage and letting QBs make mistakes. So, with Nix having three interceptions through two games, he may be more inclined to tuck and run than force passes in the red zone.

Verdict: Quentin Johnston +250 | Bo Nix +450

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Cowboys vs. Bears

Sunday, Sept. 21

4:25 p.m. ET

FOX

Through two games, it might be a tie between these teams for worst pass defense in the NFL.

The Bears have gotten absolutely cooked through the air with seven passing touchdowns allowed and haven’t been able to use their strength in man coverage with All-Pro CB Jaylon Johnson on the mend.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys have revamped their coverage to an all-zone approach with zero percent of man coverage snaps, which seems impossible, but it’s the Cowboys. The prevent defense under Matt Eberflus seems like it can only take away one thing.

In Week 1, they took away the pass from the Eagles, but Philly ran all over them. When they played the Giants, they took away the run, but then Russell Wilson cooked them for 400 passing yards and three touchdowns.

Needless to say, there should be plenty of touchdowns in this matchup.

For the Cowboys, I think we need to consider WR Jalen Tolbert in this spot. I know we hit with WR Kavontae Turpin last week, but he’s dealing with a neck injury and saw his snaps/routes drop off a cliff.

Tolbert had seven touchdowns last season and played the third-most snaps of any Cowboys WR.

Given the TD odds being steamed heavily for other Cowboys like CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, I think we should back Tolbert to get his first score of the season.

The one Bear who has seen his TD odds get mega-steamed through two weeks is WR Rome Odunze, and until we start seeing a +120 price-tag, I’m going to bet on him every week.

Odunze is a star in this offense and already has two touchdowns against zone defense, which the Cowboys have used exclusively through two games.

Verdict: Rome Odunze +160 | Jalen Tolbert +500

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Cardinals vs. 49ers

Sunday, Sept. 21

4:25 p.m. ET

FOX

If you’re a consistent reader of this series, you know I have a thing for Kyler Murray TD props.

I’m always considering the Cardinals' QB to score a TD because he might be one of the quickest players in the entire league.

That’s why I’m likely going to keep betting on him, not only because of the rushing upside (seven carries in each game this season), but the odds are worth it at +300 or better.

Of the 14 carries Murray has had, six were scrambles/designed runs, while two were carries inside the red zone. And for what it’s worth, it was this same Niners defense that Kyler scored his first TD against last season with a 50-yard run.

Looking at the 49ers, I’m not as down on their passing game with Mac Jones at QB in comparison to Brock Purdy.

There’s a drop-off, but it’s not off a cliff.

Jones was able to keep the chains moving in Week 2 with 15 passing first downs and three touchdowns. This means we could still see trust in this offense to score some touchdowns, and I’m immediately looking at WR Ricky Pearsall.

He’s gotten two end zone targets so far, while leading the team in receiving yards.

It’s also setting up to be a decent matchup for him because, through two games, the Cardinals' defense has played zone at a 71% rate (Ranked 11th) with an emphasis on Cover 4, as they’ve played that type of coverage at the highest rate in the NFL through two games.

He’s also the 49ers' deep threat, and the Cardinals are bottom-five in defensive DVOA against the deep ball through two games.

If you can get Jauan Jennings at +200 or better, I’m ok with him too. But with Pearsall having a higher target share against zone and yards-per-route-run, I think it’s Pearsall’s turn to score.

Verdict: Kyler Murray +320 | Rickey Pearsall +220

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