ESPN reveals final update to preseason Top 25 college football rankings

Saturday will mark one full week before the official return of college football, and sports fans everywhere are counting down the minutes. The 2025 college football season preseason ends and regular season formally begins at 12 pm ET, Aug. 23, from Dublin, Ireland, where No. 17 Kansas State will take on No. 22 Iowa State in a highly anticipated Top 25 showdown between potential Big 12 contenders on ESPN.

In the meantime, Ranking Season remains in full swing after the Associated Press released its 2025 Preseason Top 25 Poll on Monday, which formally crowned Texas as the nation’s consensus No. 1 team. The week before, USA Today’s Coaches Preseason Top 25 Poll also tabbed the Longhorns as the country’s top-rated college football program ahead of the 2025 season.

Of course, not all rankings are equal, and ESPN delivered an interesting one with Thursday’s release of its final 2025 Preseason SP+ Rankings, which is an analytically derived “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency.” As ESPN’s Bill Connelly explains: “It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a resume ranking.”

With that in mind, check out ESPN’s final Preseason SP+ rankings ahead of the 2025 college football season:

The reigning College Football Playoff national champions hold down the No. 1 spot in ESPN’s SP+ rankings with an average projected win total of 10.0 and the expected No. 3 defense and No. 8 offense based on ESPN’s projections.

While this might be surprising to some, given all the Buckeyes lost off last year’s title-winning squad, Ohio State still returns the nation’s top offensive threat in sophomore WR Jeremiah Smith and arguably the best individual defender in junior safety Caleb Downs. If the Buckeyes can find themselves a reliable QB1 in either Julian Sayin or Lincoln Kienholz and adequately fill some other holes, the sky’s the limit in 2025.

Kalen DeBoer (Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)

Another interesting surprise as the Crimson Tide land at No. 2 in ESPN’s SP+ rankings despite last season’s struggles in Year 1 under Kalen DeBoer. The first year coach failed to lead Alabama to 10 wins in a season for the first time since 2007 — Nick Saban‘s inaugural season at the helm.

Part of that love is due to a projected 9.4 win total in 2025, thanks in large part to the country’s third-ranked offense that is projected to average 39.3 points per game against the 11th-best strength of schedule entering the season. And with multiple defensive stalwarts back, including fifth-year LBs Deontae Lawson and Justin Jefferson, Alabama is also expected to have the country’s No. 6 defense.

The reigning SEC champions slot into the No. 3 spot in the final SP+ rankings due to their projected win total of 9.3 against the 13th-best strength of schedule and the country’s No. 1-ranked special teams unit. That’s in addition to the fifth-best defense, allowing a projected average of 13.5 ppg.

The one area for concern could be offensively, where the Bulldogs turn their QB1 job over to junior Gunner Stockton after two-year starter Carson Beck transferred to Miami after suffering a UCL injury late last season. Stockton will have some new weapons in WR transfers Zachariah Branch and Noah Thomas, but how quickly they gel in Athens will determine whether Georgia repeats as SEC champs.

The Nittany Lions nearly beat out Texas for the No. 1 spot in the AP Preseason Poll, landing at No. 2 with just two fewer first-place votes and five fewer total points than the Longhorns. It’s the AP’s closest preseason vote differential between 1 and 2 since 1998.

Much like Ohio State, Penn State has a projected win total of 10.0 due in large part to the country’s fourth-best offense that is projected to average 38.8 ppg game behind college football’s top backfield featuring senior QB Drew Allar and RB tandem Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton. That’s in addition to the eighth-best defense and a Top 30 strength of schedule entering the season.

Arch Manning (Will Gallagher-Inside Texas)

College football’s consensus No. 1 team, according to both the AP and USA Today, the Longhorns slide to No. 5 in the SP+ rankings due to the country’s 24th-best offense that will be turning the ball over to new QB1 Arch Manning, the former No. 1 overall recruit in 2023.

While Manning and the Texas offense will need to prove itself to ESPN’s analytics, the SP+ rankings love the Longhorns’ second-best defense that features senior LB Anthony Hill Jr. and sophomore pass rusher Colin Simmons, both of whom are expected to be first-round draft picks. Special teams might be an issue with SP+ projecting it among the nation’s worst units in 2025.

The defending national runner-ups land just outside the Top 5 despite ranking third overall with a projected win total of 9.8 regular-season wins. But it comes against what SP+ projects will be the nation’s 44th-best strength of schedule in 2025, which is the worst among the Top 10 by a wide margin.

Notre Dame is expected to have the country’s ninth-best defense, allowing a projected 14.8 ppg in Year 4 under head coach and former DC Marcus Freeman, as well as the 12th-best offense that will be led by powerhouse running back Jeremiyah Love. Of course, if whoever wins the Irish’s QB1 job keeps opposing teams from stacking the box, Notre Dame could once again find itself rolling into the Playoffs again.

The Ducks rolled through their inaugural season in the Big Ten as the country’s only undefeated program, securing the Big Ten championship with a win over the Nittany Lions. The SP+ analytics expect Oregon will certainly be in the mix once again with a projected win total of 9.6 in 2025.

But if Oregon is going to repeat last year’s success, it’ll be because of the nation’s fifth-best offense, which is projected to average 38.5 ppg behind former 5-star QB Dante Moore. That’s in addition to the country’s third-best special teams unit and No. 13 defense with junior pass rusher Matayo Uiagalelei, a projected first-round pick who is the Big Ten’s top returning sack leader with 10.5 last year.

Sherrone Moore (Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images)

Despite a difficult first season under new head coach Sherrone Moore, ESPN’s SP+ rankings expect a bounce-back season in 2025 with a projected win total of 9.6 due to what the analytics expect will be the nation’s No. 1 defense, limiting opponents to 10.6 ppg.

The one area where the SP+ expects Michigan to take a dip is offensively, where 2025 Five-Star Plus+ QB and No. 1 overall recruit Bryce Underwood is the favorite to take over a unit that analytics project as the nation’s No. 37 offense, averaging 31.5 ppg against the 38th-best strength of schedule in 2025.

The Rebels were among three nine-loss SEC teams to barely miss out on last year’s College Football Playoff, and the SP+ expects a similar result with a projected win total of 9.0 this preseason, which is the lowest among the Top 10 based on ESPN’s analytics.

Ole Miss underwent a bit of a roster overhaul this season and will debut new QB1 Austin Simmons to lead what SP+ projects will be the nation’s No. 18 offense, averaging 35.2 ppg next season against the country’s 23rd-best strength of schedule. The Rebels’ defense may be their strength, with the seventh-best unit limiting opponents to just 14.5 ppg in 2025.

The reigning ACC champion Tigers are once again expected to not only compete for a conference title but a national championship in 2025 with a loaded and mostly-returning roster that helped lead Clemson to the Playoffs last season.

Much of the hype is focused on returning senior QB1 Cade Klubnik and a loaded WR room that is expected to lead the nation’s sixth-best offense that’s projected to average 38.4 ppg versus the 34th-ranked strength of schedule. ESPN’s analytics aren’t as high on Clemson’s 20th-best defense that returns likely Top 10 picks in pass rusher TJ Parker and DT Peter Woods.

ESPN SP+ 2025 Preseason Rankings, Nos. 11-25

Garrett Nussmeier (Stephen Lew-Imagn Images)

11. LSU Tigers (20.1)

12. Tennessee Volunteers (19.4)

13. Texas A&M Aggies (18.3)

14. Miami Hurricanes (18.1)

15. Oklahoma Sooners (17.5)

16. Florida Gators (16.2)

17. South Carolina Gamecocks (16.0)

18. Kansas State Wildcats (15.3)

19. SMU Mustangs (14.6)

20. Missouri Tigers (14.0)

21. USC Trojans (13.2)

22. Auburn Tigers (13.1)

23. Indiana Hoosiers (12.5)

24. Louisville Cardinals (12.3)

25. Iowa Hawkeyes (12.1)

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