Monday Cal-culations: Seven questions for Swans, can Freo follow Lions' flag path?

In Monday Cal-culations, Callum Twomey also looks at Luke Beveridge's impending contract and how the Blues are inadvertently showing off Sam Walsh to rival suitors

Sydney's Justin McInerney, Fremantle's Shai Bolton and Western Bulldogs coach Luke Beveridge. Pictures: AFL Photos

AFL.com.au's Callum Twomey takes a look at the contenders to surge home in the second half of the season, whether Luke Beveridge's impending deal will spark Marcus Bontempelli into action, and how the Big Freeze could have been very different in Monday Cal-culations

THE FREO FLYERS

FREMANTLE can't fumble the chance to be this year's flyer.

Collingwood looks the runaway team of 2025 so far – maybe a better version of the Pies' 2023 self. Their $1.8 million punt on adding two high-priced recruits and backing in another tilt with veterans is so far working. The Magpies are so well-drilled, so in sync and hang off Craig McRae's messaging.

But we are entering 'part two' of this year. It is when the 'run home' challengers emerge. Last year it was Brisbane, who sailed on to a premiership by losing two games after round 11 to claim the flag following a 2-5 start to the season. Hawthorn made its run by winning 11 of the last 13 games of the home and away season to make a semi-final.

In 2023 it was the Blues, who won nine of their last 10 games to get into the finals and then reach a preliminary final. In 2022 Geelong won its last 16 games of the season to take a dominant flag after losing four of their first nine games.

Geelong celebrates a goal against Sydney during the 2022 Grand Final. Picture: Getty Images

There's always a threat. Sydney was the raging flag favourite at 13-1 last year before crashing in the second half of the season. Melbourne won the first 10 games of 2022 before crumbling after that. Both succumbed to red-hot rival runs.

Fremantle has the chance to be the flyer of 2025. The Dockers have claimed three successive wins and their victory over Gold Coast at home was the best of their year. That's two travelling wins in the past three weeks, itself a sign the Fremantle line-up is maturing.

Credit to Justin Longmuir, who has changed his team on the go. Champion Data statistics show the big gains made in the past three weeks. The Dockers have gone from the third-worst in the AFL for kicking forward percentage between rounds 1-9 to the best over the past three weeks. Their corridor use from defensive 50 has changed from 12th in the start of the season to third. It is as significant a shift mid-season as there has been this year.

Other factors have improved too, and defensively Fremantle has tightened right up. In that three-week block, the Dockers rank first for points against and second in defensive 50 groundball differentials, opposition back half to score percentage, and opposition score per inside 50 percentage.

But the Dockers are also thriving in the contest, jumping from 15th between rounds 1-9 for contested possession differential to fifth over the past three weeks. They've also leapt from 12th to second in groundball gets differential and from 14th to fifth in pressure rating.

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The Dockers have the bye this week before three successive games at Optus Stadium against North Melbourne, Essendon and St Kilda. They should turn at round 16 with a 10-5 record and with a top-four position well in their sights. After botching it last year, Fremantle can't make the same mistake.

Adelaide is coming and is reaping the rewards of a long rebuild that has followed a plan.

It has 'flyer' credentials but faces a tough fixture that includes two games against Hawthorn to come, clashes with Brisbane and Collingwood, the Western Bulldogs and the Suns, as well as a return Showdown bout against Port Adelaide that often evens up the two state rivals. Beating the Lions would confirm the Crows' flyer status.

Melbourne's run of five wins from six games also put it into 'flyer' territory before Sunday's loss to St Kilda at Alice Springs. The defeat is the Demons' third straight defeat at TIO Traeger Park over three years, a far cry from the home-from-home base Gold Coast has made Darwin. The Bulldogs will head into round 13 outside the eight after their bye but are capable of making a strong run and have Sam Darcy's return slated for mid-June.

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THE SEVEN QUESTIONS FACING THE SWANS

EVERY mess has a message. Dean Cox's was simple after Sydney's Saturday night disaster at the hands of Adelaide.

"I said to them 'Expect some tough sessions'. That'll happen," the Swans coach said of his post-game direction to his players.

Within that, the first-year Sydney coach has a chance to test his team on what they want to get out of this season or if they are ready to put up the (red and) white flag for 2025. Certainly the past two weeks – drubbings to Melbourne and the Crows – haven’t seen the Swans grind things out.

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Sydney is playing without its edge or magic. In its road to the 2022 Grand Final, the Swans were a high-pressure machine. Last year, their form was built more on the back of brilliance, largely from five firestarters: Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner, Errol Gulden, Nick Blakey and Brodie Grundy.

Gulden is a few weeks from playing his first game of the season after his broken ankle and Blakey has had his flashes, but the others are not near their 2024 form. Injuries aside, the Swans haven't had their best at their best anywhere near enough.

Last season the Swans sliced and diced like a Michelin-starred chef, chipping around, changing lanes and switching the ball. This season the Swans aren't controlling the game through uncontested marks and they are playing far more direct with a forward line that isn't working. In attack, they have become one of footy's most inefficient teams. Last year they were No.1 for kick inside 50 retention. This year, 12th. Last year they were No.1 for score per inside 50. This year, 17th. Last year they were first for turning an intercept into score. This year, 10th. Last year they were second for turning a clearance into a score. This year, last.

Chad Warner is tackled during Sydney's loss to Adelaide in round 12, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

It leaves Cox to use the second half of this year to scope out his list and the football department. Having taken over hastily on the eve of last pre-season after John Longmire's departure, including not having enough time to poach and replace his own senior assistant's position, Cox now has the chance to step in and properly sort through his program.

There are seven obvious questions to solve over the next 12 weeks: Why is the inconsistency in effort and execution so stark this year? How affected are the Swans after climbing the mountain and crashing at the summit twice in three years? Can the group rebound or is a list revamp required? Was the Swans' star quality lifting up the next tiers of the team that weren't truly at that level? Is an off-field refresh required? How much of this drop-off is injury related? What is the cause of the inefficiency?

BEVO IN, NOW WHAT ABOUT BONT?

LUKE Beveridge and the Western Bulldogs are in agreeance on a two-year extension, with the finer details to be signed off imminently.

It will take the 2016 premiership coach through to the end of 2027, making it 13 seasons at the helm of the club.

With Port Adelaide's Ken Hinkley-Josh Carr succession plan announced pre-season, Beveridge's signature will leave Fremantle coach Justin Longmuir as the only coach not with a firm deal beyond this season, with the Dockers implementing their 'ongoing employment' arrangement for their coach.

Beveridge and the Bulldogs' move will also put the spotlight firmly on Marcus Bontempelli's contract decision.

The Bont has waited for the start of the year, he has returned from injury, he has seen Ed Richards and co. sign up, he has opened his coffee shop and seen the coach's future become clear but he is still yet to kick off talks. The sense has been that it is going to start soon – but 'soon' has continued to stretch.

Bontempelli waited until late May to re-sign with the Dogs the last time he had a free agency contract decision in the middle of 2021 and indications were that the Bulldogs superstar was just about to start discussions. With Bevo about to be sealed, when will Bontempelli follow?

Marcus Bontempelli and Luke Beveridge at the Bulldogs' team photo day on February 20, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

ARE BLUES DOING RIVALS' WORK FOR THEM?

CLUBS are already coming for Sam Walsh ahead of his free agency season in 2026. But is Carlton helping them make their pitch?

AFL.com.au revealed last week that Geelong, St Kilda, and Hawthorn are among the clubs who already on the early hunt for the Blues' star midfielder. He is contracted for next year and wouldn't be expected to move before then but after signing early the last time he came out of contract ahead of the 2022 season – when he still had that year to run on his deal – a free agency call won't be as swift.

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Rivals are seeing Walsh as a midfielder more than the Blues are currently using him. The sell is writing itself. After playing 89 per cent of his game time last year as a midfielder and 11 per cent forward, Walsh has had his midfield time cut by nearly 20 per cent this season and has been on the wing 17 per cent of his game time.

On average he has attended 14.4 centre bounces a game this season – a 30 per cent reduction on his 20.7 last year. Walsh has become a victim of his versatility in that sense, with Carlton's other three midfield mainstays – Patrick Cripps, Adam Cerra and this season George Hewett – unable to be shifted anywhere else.

But Walsh, Cerra and Hewett is clearly Carlton's most successful centre bounce clearance combination this season – 17 wins and four losses when together – and they have the best winning rate as a trio in the competition at 45 per cent (because they win the clearance 59 per cent and lose it 14 per cent). The next best trio in the AFL? The Dogs' rolled-gold guns Marcus Bontempelli, Tom Liberatore and Ed Richards (29 per cent).

Walsh had an injury-interrupted lead into the season but needs to be backed in the middle. Against the Giants last week he was there more often, with 19 centre bounces, but it is up to Michael Voss to get his best players where they play best.

While Zak Butters gets most attention as a pre-agent, mainly due to his pull back to Victoria, Walsh's contract will be one of the biggest headlines for next year as clubs jostle to get to the front of the queue for his signature.

It is shaping as a significant off-season of change at Carlton, particularly if they cannot recover to make the finals. The pressure on Voss is obvious and a new coach would be Walsh's fourth in eight seasons at the Blues. Rivals knowing dragging out the likely next captain of Carlton would not be easy, but that's not stopping them from already trying.

DEMONS' BIG FREEZE SLIDING DOORS

THIS WEEK will mark 10 years since the first Big Freeze at the 'G game – the Neale Daniher-led movement that has made for a sea of blue beanies at the annual Melbourne and Collingwood King's Birthday game.

The Big Freeze fundraiser for motor neurone disease research and treatment in support of finding a cure for the disease started a year after Daniher had publicly revealed his MND diagnosis.

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But it was close to not being a Demons game, if not for timing.

It was Essendon that was first approached in 2014 by the Big Freeze team to host and build into their next blockbuster game. Daniher's history at Essendon was significant as a former star player and assistant coach and was where he had played alongside his three brothers at the club.

Chris, Anthony, Neale and Terry Daniher ahead of Essendon's clash with Carlton in round 13, 2024. Picture: AFL Photos

But the Bombers decided against taking up the chance to make an event of the Big Freeze game as they were in the midst of the anti-doping scandal. Keeping the club together whilst battling an unprecedented low point in the Bombers' history meant they had to pass on the chance to build a new blockbuster. They already had Anzac Day and Dreamtime at the 'G then, but their Country Game, honouring Australia's rural community against Geelong, started in 2016.

Given Daniher's reverence at Melbourne, where he was senior coach for 10 years between 1998-2007, the Demons were next to be approached and jumped at the opportunity to combine the Big Freeze with the June public holiday match against Collingwood.

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It has become the perfect marriage.

Celebrities and former players have jumped at the chance to take part in the Big Freeze slide pre-game, the fundraising gains enormous momentum, beanies have been a masterstroke, the games have been evenly split (5-4 Collingwood's way over the 10 years so far after having to change plans in 2020) and Daniher's stature as a hero has only grown. This year, with Daniher the Australian of the Year, might be the most special yet.

Jan Daniher and Neale Daniher pose with the 2025 Australian of the Year award during the Big Freeze 11 Launch at Flinders Street Station on May 6, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

CROCKER'S COMMISSION DATE

NORTH Melbourne's AFLW premiership coach Darren Crocker will get his opportunity to front the AFL Commission next week as part of the League's commitment to hearing from the reigning flag winners.

Winning premiership coaches from both the men's and women's competitions are asked to present to the AFL Commission in the months following their successes, with Brisbane's Chris Fagan meeting the Commission in December last year.

Crocker led the Roos to their 2024 NAB AFLW triumph in his fifth season in charge, having taken over the role ahead of the 2020 campaign, and was also named the AFL Coaches' Association's AFLW coach of the year last year.

The 1996 premiership player at North Melbourne will address the Commission next week ahead of the Australian Football Hall of Fame event on Tuesday, June 10. The AFL's Tasmania list rules are expected to be taken to the Commission later in June or July.

Darren Crocker speaks after North Melbourne's win in the 2024 NAB AFLW Grand Final. Picture: AFL Photos

TALENT SHIFT THE RIGHT CALL

IT WAS the detail that got overlooked in the AFL's executive shake-up last week.

In a back-to-the-future decision, Andrew Dillon shifted the talent and talent pathways team from the football department to now be under the AFL's game development team under executive Rob Auld. It was a good move and one that leant on the AFL boss's own experience. Dillon was formerly the head of game development at the AFL and talent sat under his watch then.

Clubs and recruiters will say that in the helter-skelter nature of the top level, the talent department being under football operations meant that it was often down the list of priorities. This shift, with the game development budget and resources at hand, opens up opportunities.

The middle ground was lost in the 'nepo babies' Academy stoush of last week. The northern Academy clubs should be praised for their work in developing the code and prospects in the northern market and deserve first dibs on them, but there can also fairly be questions raised by clubs in other states in relation to their own talent programs and the investments there. It is about lifting those up, not cutting others back.

Because the Academies have become so well run, resourced and funded, gaps have emerged in pathways in traditional footy states. Clubs have raised those equality questions in their feedback on the Next Generation Academy review, which is also under the watch of the game development team at headquarters.

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