Miracle scenario Explained

India’s hopes of making it to the World Test Championship 2025 (WTC) final were crushed as their defeat to Australia in the fifth Test of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy (BGT 2024-25) officially sealed their fate. South Africa were the first team to reach the WTC 2025 finals after defeating Pakistan in the first Test and Australia joined them by winning the BGT by 3-1.

Before the fifth Test in Sydney, India had a slight chance of reaching the WTC final. They needed to win the New Year’s Test and hope for a no-result series between Australia and Sri Lanka or the latter to win the series comprehensively. Australia and South Africa will certainly tussle for the coveted title at Lord’s but there is some light at the end of the tunnel for Sri Lanka.

It could be nothing short of a miracle if the permutation and combinations align well for them to make it to WTC. Australia have a points percentage of 63.73 in the points table. Pakistan, West Indies or Sri Lanka cannot overtake the Aussies to throw them out of the finals. Even if Sri Lanka beat Australia 2-0, the latter’s points percentage will be 57.02 with India already having a points percentage of 50 and Sri Lanka would see their points rake up to 53.85, leaving Australia still ahead.

The potential miracle that Sri Lanka might hope for is if Australia receive a points penalty for maintaining a slow over rate in the upcoming series. A total penalty of eight points in two Tests, provided Sri Lanka win the series by 2-0, might see the Lankan Tigers overthrow Australia and reach the WTC 2025 finals in June. The point of concern for Aussies here would be bowling long spells of spin on the turning Sri Lanka tracks or they are made to field for longer hours and abide by the forced slow over rate.

Also Check: Here's a look at the latest WTC standings after Australia's win over India

World Test Championship 2023-25 Points Table:

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