Monday Cal-culations: Draft lockout not the answer, Nicks' past life lessons, Dees' deadline

In Monday Cal-culations, Callum Twomey looks at the big decisions facing the Demons, the Bombers' moves to land a new fitness boss and the 'reverse Coleman'

Cody Walker, Matthew Nicks and Nathan Buckley. Pictures: AFL Photos

AFL.com.au's Callum Twomey takes a look at alternative solutions to an AFL draft lockout, the work that has prepared Matthew Nicks for Thursday's final, and the Demons' deadline in Monday Cal-culations

DRAFT LOCKOUT NOT THE ANSWER

THE DRAFT needs help. The worst teams need more ways to get better and the compromised nature of this year's crop makes for a melting pot of solutions and ideas.

But a 'lockout' of clubs being able to match bids on their Academy and father-son players in the first five, 10 or 20 selections isn't the answer.

As Gettable revealed a fortnight ago, club football bosses left a meeting run by the AFL earlier this month warned that there was change coming to the bidding system in 2026 and that everything was on the table, including not being able to match bids on tied players in a protected part of the draft.

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Clubs walked away believing the AFL was preparing for significant change to see the early stages of the draft opened up so every player was available to the clubs at the bottom of the ladder. It comes as there could be four top 10 bids this year – on Gold Coast pair Zeke Uwland and Dylan Patterson, Brisbane's Dan Annable and Carlton father-son Harry Dean.

But a change as significant as stopping clubs from matching bids on their guns must be the last resort if other measures fail. And if that is the decision, it has to be phased in rather than be rushed through.

There are other fixes that should be considered first:

a cap of one per year per club inside the first round or top-10;

a rolling maximum of two per club over two years in the top-10;

an allowance to only match a first-round bid by using a first-round pick, thus making sure they can't be matched with later selections or traded out;

a premium bidding 'tax' added under the points system, rather than a discount, for clubs matching early bids;

closing the loophole that allows clubs on draft night to use more picks than they have available list spots to match bids;

giving clubs that are in the bottom part of the ladder multiple years in a row an extra mid-first round selection;

changing free agency compensation so band one picks start after the non-finalists have had their first picks at No.11.

The League has said the father-son rule isn't going anywhere but the romance and history won't be preserved by father-sons picked outside the top rungs. Of the past five drafts, there have been 13 players drafted as father-sons after pick 25. They have averaged 16 games each per player so far.

There are three clubs that would be most hurt by a draft lockout being imposed as early as 2026.

There's Carlton, who have already committed to talented father-son Cody Walker in the 2026 draft.

There's Essendon, who have father-son Koby Bewick eligible in 2027 as well as rising Next Generation Academy prospect Blake Justice next year.

And there's Port Adelaide, whose submission to have access to potential top 2026 pick Dougie Cochrane as a NGA player next year remains pending with the AFL, but who in 2027 have father-son pair Louis Salopek and Tevita Rodan, as well as NGA talent Zemes Pilot, all eligible.

Cody Walker chats with Charlie Curnow during Carlton's training session at Ikon Park on July 9, 2025. Picture: Getty Images

Pilot may not be in the football program, given his promise as a talented basketballer, without the Port Academy involvement. The same goes for many of the Northern Academy talents.

Port Adelaide has challenged for the premiership over the past decade and finished top-four in the home and away season three times of the past five years before this year. But the Power have not won a premiership since 2004, Essendon since 2000 and Carlton since 1995. Since the start of 2001, they have completed a combined 75 seasons for one flag and three Grand Final appearances.

They will fiercely challenge any draft lockout if the rules get changed just after last year's premiers land another top-five Academy jet in Dan Annable this November. The Lions' 2024 flag wasn't won because of the father-sons and Academies but as with all clubs, future planning has been important. Knowing they have been able to plan meticulously around the Ashcroft brothers, Jaspa Fletcher, Sam Marshall and Annable arriving as midfielders has allowed them to be even more specific and targeted with their recruits, with the club bolstering their front and back half at drafts.

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It is why clubs with high-end father-sons and Academy players would have been doing the same for 2026 and 2027 as part of their list strategies, which are usually four to five years in advance.

After Jamarra Ugle-Hagan joined the Western Bulldogs as the No.1 pick in 2020 as a NGA player, the AFL quickly introduced a draft lockout for NGA players, with clubs not able to match bids inside the top-20 the following year and the top 40 the year after that. It then got changed back to the open pool and should make for a cautious approach with lockouts again being considered.

Jamarra Ugle-Hagan reacts as he is revealed as the No.1 pick at the 2020 NAB AFL Draft. Picture: Michael Willson, AFL Photos

HOW NICKS' STOCKS GREW

BETWEEN his playing and coaching career, Matthew Nicks became a stockbroker. He worked in the finance sector for five years, finding the rush of the market about as close to the competitiveness of a football field.

Nicks has ridden out the market volatility of his role as Crows coach and now has the assets and portfolio to have blue chip stock at his fingertips. But how Nicks has developed his team around his weapons this season remains his biggest strength as his attacking profile found a defensive edge.

Nicks' Crows were dudded for a finals spot in 2023 but came of age that year as the competition's best scoring team before they collapsed under expectations last season and fell to the bottom four. Nicks entered this season coaching for his job. He had a year to run on his contract but no September for a sixth straight year would have likely spelled the end of his time at the club.

Matthew Nicks celebrates Adelaide's win during round 21, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

Now, ahead of a dramatic qualifying final that looms against Collingwood on Thursday, the Crows will surely move quickly to extend his contract at the club in the off-season beyond 2026 as reward for the jump up the ladder.

There hasn't been any discussions yet about a new deal but that is expected to pick up in October and November, with Nicks well positioned for another multi-year extension.

Champion Data highlights how Nicks and his coaching panel have managed to blend defence with attack better than before to land the minor premiership. This season they are No.1 for clearance to score (up from 13th in 2024), score per inside 50 (14th last year) and second in intercept to score (10th in 2024).

Rory Laird became a full-time defender this season after playing 70 per cent of his time as a midfielder last season, while Josh Worrell and Mark Keane became elite intercept defenders (they were equal third in intercept possessions this year, setting a new record for Crows players).

Rory Laird and Jake Soligo during Adelaide's game against Richmond in R13, 2024. Picture: AFL Photos

Nicks has also seen the rise of Riley Thilthorpe and Dan Curtin as top-end draft picks, with Thilthorpe the only player in the AFL to be top-10 for goals and top-10 for goal assists this season, while list management and recruiting additions such as James Peatling, Isaac Cumming and Alex Neal-Bullen all did exactly as expected. Nicks had to sell the dream to them at the end of last year as that trio considered their futures and had other clubs calling.

The stockbroker-turned-coach knows risk, pressure and patience. His first September will take things up a notch against Collingwood in Thursday's qualifying final but he is used to the tension.

"You don't want to lose people money, believe me, it's not fun," Nicks told AFL.com.au ahead of the season about his time as a stockbroker. "But then I had to get back in [to footy] because I loved it, I loved the team component first and foremost and pressure is actually enjoyable if you embrace it or you're able to work through it and have success."

Matthew Nicks (right) and Brodie Smith are seen during round 23, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

LIONS FITNESS BOSS IN BOMBERS' MIX

BRISBANE'S head of high performance Damien Austin is among the candidates to be in the running as Essendon's new fitness boss.

Austin has been the Lions' long-running high performance manager since 2015 and been central to the club's strength, conditioning and fitness program.

He is understood to be among the group of contenders to have spoken with the Bombers about their vacancy after the club let go former fitness boss Sean Murphy at the end of its season.

Austin has a long history in the industry, having been at Sydney as a strength and conditioning coach before joining the Lions, and also worked in netball and NRL.

The Bombers are searching far and wide for the important position after their horror injury run this year, with West Coast's Mathew Inness among the candidates to be linked as well.

The club targeted Adelaide fitness guru Darren Burgess but he has told the Crows he will be remaining there.

20 DEMON DAYS TO GET IT RIGHT

IT IS a huge 20 days for the future of Melbourne.

The Demons want to name their new coach by preliminary final weekend – which will run over September 19 and 20 – and the next three weeks will be spent going through their coaching process.

AFL.com.au revealed on Saturday more names who had taken themselves out of the Demons' coaching process after having discussions with Melbourne, including Ken Hinkley, Corey Enright and Cameron Bruce, with Danny Daly also withdrawing interest.

Nathan Buckley remains the No.1 seed ahead of the group of assistants and the Demons haven't been shy about wanting experienced options as part of the mix.

Nathan Buckley is seen during round 24, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos/Getty Images

Western Bulldogs assistant Brendon Lade, Geelong pair Steven King and James Kelly and Collingwood assistant Hayden Skipworth are part of the group being identified by the Demons as key candidates, with some assistants to weigh up how hard they pursue the role.

Ahead of the next round of interviews this week, contenders must also be shaping their views on what to do with Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver ahead of the trade period. As well as game plan ideas, culture themes, assistants they have in mind and their long-term vision, the futures of two key players must be part of discussions.

Melbourne has gone hard at the top end of the draft in recent years, regenerating its list on the move, and has a growing squad of under-24 talent there ready to coach and get moving.

Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver after Melbourne's win over North Melbourne in round seven, 2023. Picture: AFL Photos

It is the right time to explore a Petracca trade. The Dees' only ever Norm Smith medallist will forever hold a significant place in Melbourne history but this off-season of change represents a good time for the 29-year-old to find a freshness with a new club a year after his failed trade bid.

A new coach, new chief executive and new president also marks a time for the Demons to look ahead if a deal is conducive to them for Petracca, who has four years remaining on his contract.

SUNS' SNEAKY ADVANTAGE?

GOLD Coast's round 24 double-header can work in the Suns' favour as they head into their first finals series.

The Suns' clash with Essendon last Wednesday night secured them a top-eight berth and also basically wiped out their bye, making only for an extended nine-day break between the end of their home and away season and their first ever final, when they face Fremantle on Saturday.

It is for the best that the Suns didn't really have a proper bye. Of all the finals sides, Champion Data shows Gold Coast has the worst record coming off a bye over the past three years, having won just two of six games for a winning rate of 33 per cent.

Noah Anderson celebrates a goal during Gold Coast's clash against Essendon in round 24, 2025. Picture: Getty Images

Alarmingly for the Crows, Collingwood has the best record, having won five of its past six games post-bye, while Brisbane is next best at 5-2. Geelong (4-2), Adelaide (3-2), GWS (4-3), Hawthorn (3-3) and Fremantle (2-3) fall in behind across the past three seasons, including the pre-finals bye, which clubs believe is in the gun ahead of next year with Greg Swann and Tom Harley at the AFL.

Recent history between each of the finalists suggests there are four favourites for the first round of the finals.

Collingwood has won 10 of its past 11 games against Adelaide, with the Crows' round 23 win over the Magpies breaking a 10-game losing streak to Collingwood. But across the past five games the collective margin has been 20 points so very little has separated the clubs.

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Brisbane used to get bullied by the Cats but has turned the tables in recent years, with the Lions winning four of their past five games against Geelong, including three victories over the Cats within 17 matches over the past 12 months.

Fremantle will also take confidence into its elimination final against Gold Coast, having beaten the Suns four of their past five meetings. The last time the Suns beat the Dockers was in 2022 at People First Stadium.

Hawthorn heads to Engie Stadium looking to make history, having never won at the venue in eight attempts. The Hawks won the only clash between the teams earlier this season in round three by 12 points at UTAS Stadium, with the Hawks having won two of the past five clashes between the clubs.

WHO GETS THE 'REVERSE COLEMAN'?

JEREMY Cameron won the Coleman Medal in a canter, kicking 83 goals in the home and away season ahead of Ben King's tally of 69. But what about the 'reverse Coleman'?

The reverse Coleman relates to the defenders who have conceded the most goals to their opponents throughout the year and the title goes to Port Adelaide's Aliir Aliir this year.

The Port backman conceded 49 goals this season, often taking the opposition's best forward in a tough season for both Port Adelaide and Aliir, who battled injuries to continue to take the field late in the campaign.

Aliir Aliir in action during Port Adelaide's clash with Gold Coast in round 24, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

Richmond's Ben Miller (46 goals) was next most along with Carlton's Jacob Weitering, with Bulldog Rory Lobb and West Coast's Reuben Ginbey (44) the next most conceded. Steven May (43), Luke Ryan (42) and Callum Wilkie (42) were after that on the list, with Ryan the only player from a finalist side in the top list of the reverse Coleman.

But what about the 'reverse reverse Coleman?' The players who conceded the fewest goals… We put a minimum 20 games played to get the best measure of the stingiest defenders, with the results showing the half-backs to lead the way.

Champion Data's referencing includes all players whose primary position for the year was as a defender, meaning those who played some midfield time are included. Under that model, the players with the fewest goals conceded (with a minimum of 20 games played), were Port skipper Connor Rozee and Fremantle backman Bailey Banfield with nine each.

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