College football Week 3 oddly specific predictions: Duke’s Darian Mensah lights up former team

The second week of the college football season had its share of upsets, including a handful of Group of 5 programs beating schools from major conferences.

We’ll still have upsets in Week 3, but I’m counting on more favorites to get the job done.

I went 7-2 picking straight-up winners last week (13-5 for the season), including my second straight upset special thanks to Baylor’s come-from-behind win at previously ranked SMU. But I’m still looking to hit on my first stat-stuffer of the season.

We’ll start there.

Most passing yards

Darian Mensah returns to his old stomping grounds at Tulane as the nation’s second-leading passer. Duke faded last week in the fourth quarter at home against Illinois despite 334 passing yards and two touchdowns from Mensah. Tulane, meanwhile, survived a 33-31 shootout at South Alabama. Mensah throws for 400-plus and three touchdowns, and Duke (plus-1.5) pulls off the road upset.

Most rushing yards

Cam Cook, a four-star running back in the Class of 2023, lost his starting job late last year at TCU. He’s getting more touches at Jacksonville State and making the most of it (46 carries for 270 yards). This week’s challenger is Georgia Southern, which is allowing an FBS-worst 330 yards rushing per game after blowout losses at Fresno State and USC. Cook breaks the 200-yard mark and scores twice to lead the underdog Gamecocks (plus-3.5) to a road victory.

Most receiving yards

Clemson’s offense hasn’t looked good with receiver Antonio Williams sidelined for all but five snaps this season. But something happened in the second half last week against Troy. Sophomore Bryant Wesco started to emerge as a go-to guy for Cade Klubnik. I’m banking on Wesco being the hero with a career performance at Georgia Tech (eight-plus catches, 180-plus yards, two TDs). The Yellow Jackets didn’t have quarterback Haynes King last week against Gardner-Webb due to a lower-body injury. King is back and will give Clemson all it can handle. The Tigers do not cover the 3.5-point spread but escape Atlanta with their 10th straight win in the series.

Five big games

Pittsburgh (-7) at West Virginia

The excitement for this year’s Backyard Brawl lost a little steam when Rich Rodriguez’s team lost at Ohio last week and standout running back Jahiem White was lost for the season. Still, that doesn’t mean Pat McAfee’s old school isn’t showing up to play this thing in Morgantown. Eli Holstein, though, has been cooking for Pitt. Holstein throws the clinching touchdown pass late in a 10-point Panthers’ win.

No. 6 Georgia (-3.5) at No. 15 Tennessee

The Bulldogs have won eight in a row in the series, each by at least two touchdowns, including four over the last five seasons when both teams were ranked. Fans in Athens are worried because the Georgia offense wasn’t very explosive last week (Gunnar Stockton’s longest pass in a 28-6 win over Austin Peay was 19 yards). Right tackle Earnest Greene and right guard Juan Gaston both missed the Austin Peay game after suffering injuries in the opener, and it’s looking like both will play this weekend. Tennessee is off to a hot start, but is not as strong defensively as it was a year ago. Nate Frazier runs for 100-plus yards and scores twice, and Georgia wins by a touchdown.

No. 18 South Florida at No. 5 Miami (-17.5)

The Bulls are looking to pull off their third consecutive win over a ranked opponent after opening the season with upsets of Boise State and Florida. Todd Orlando’s speedy defense, and pesky quarterback Byrum Brown — who hasn’t thrown an interception in nine consecutive games — have been key to the early-season success. The difference here is that Miami QB Carson Beck hasn’t been making mistakes, and the Canes’ size on the offensive and defensive lines should control the game. Brown (200 yards of total offense, one TD) keeps USF in it until the second half, but Beck (200-plus passing yards, two TDs) and the Miami ground game (200-plus yards) take over in a 14-point win.

No. 16 Texas A&M at No. 8 Notre Dame (-6.5)

In the preseason, I called for Notre Dame to start the season 0-2 before running the table and making the College Football Playoff. Texas A&M has played well to this point, but picking the Aggies to put an end to a seven-game losing skid in road night games doesn’t feel right when Marcus Freeman is 5-0 at Notre Dame coming off a bye week in the regular season. The Irish will turn to their running game (190-plus rushing yards between Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price), control the clock and outscore Marcel Reed (250-plus yards of offense, two TDs) and the Aggies in an eight-point Irish win in South Bend.

Florida at No. 3 LSU (-7.5)

Yes, Billy Napier’s seat is hot again. But he still has DJ Lagway at quarterback and plenty of talent at the receiver position, which gives the Gators a fighting chance in Baton Rouge. The question is whether Florida will be disciplined enough to stay out of its own way. Spoiler alert: No. After getting flagged 11 times for 103 yards in the loss to South Florida, another costly flag will hurt Florida’s comeback efforts in the fourth quarter. Garrett Nussmeier (250-plus passing yards, two TDs) and the Tigers prevail by four.

Upset alert

Minnesota (-1.5) at Cal

Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has been a fun watch for Cal, throwing for more than 500 yards combined in wins for a revamped Bears offense. This game, though, comes down to Cal’s run defense against Gophers backs Darius Taylor and Grant Washington. Taylor (100-plus yards, one TD) will get his, but the Bears get a late stop, setting the stage for their true freshman quarterback to be the hero.

Reader predictions

Thanks again for all of the submissions. And kudos to these guys.

Ian: “At least four of the following five G5 schools pull upsets: James Madison over Louisville, Ohio over West Virginia, South Florida over Florida, Army over Kansas State and UNLV over UCLA.”

Adam B.: “The Ohio Bobcats knock off West Virginia in the upset of the week.”

Josh V.: “I’m not saying Kentucky wins versus Ole Miss, but they won’t give up over 370 yards passing. They didn’t even give up over 300 yards passing in a single game last season, and we were worse then.”

Brian M: “Nick Saban will once again deny entry to the family that shows up 5 minutes early to his rental home.”

These guys did not nail it.

Sean Shannon: “(Mike) Gundy and the Pokes roll out of Eugene with a shocking three-point upset.”

Larry V: “I don’t know if Florida covers 17.5, but it won’t be a nail-biter either. Too much of an advantage in the trenches for the Gators.”

Mark L.: “My prediction: You miss all three predictions on Iowa State, Mizzou, and Oklahoma. I hope so. I’ve got a three-team parlay on the opposite side of all those.”

Adam W.: “Oklahoma rushes for less than 100 yards; John Mateer throws two picks and Sooners lose by 10.”

Week 2 report card

The good: Illinois picked off Darian Mensah once and covered the spread, as I predicted. Iowa State covered the 2.5-point spread and beat Iowa for the second year in a row (Rocco Becht didn’t throw for 200 yards and three TDs, though). Missouri covered the 6.5-point spread against Kansas (and Beau Pribula threw for 300-plus yards and three TDs). And Oklahoma covered the 2.5-point spread at home (and John Mateer rolled up more than 300 yards of offense).

The bad: My biggest miss was calling for 17.5-point favorite Florida to beat USF by 11 points behind three DJ Lagway touchdowns and more than 250 yards passing. Lagway threw for only 222 yards and one touchdown, and he threw a pick. It also didn’t matter that the Bulls were still sloppy on defense, missing 17 tackles, according to Pro Football Focus. They overcame it en route to the 18-16 upset.

Just missed it: I came close to correctly forecasting Arizona State pulling out a three-point win in a tough environment at Mississippi State. But coming close doesn’t count for much. Blake Shapen stole the show when he hit Brenen Thompson for a 58-yard touchdown strike in MSU’s 24-20 come-from-behind win.

(Photo: Zachary Taft / Imagn Images)

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