Ultimate finals verdict: Why all eight AFL finalists can — and can’t — win the 2025 flag

Eight finalists, eight chances at joining history.

The 2025 AFL finals get underway on Thursday — and every team in the race has reason to dream of glory at the end of September. But each team also has its flaws.

Foxfooty.com.au delves into why all eight finalists can and can’t win the premiership.

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ADELAIDE CROWS

1st, 18-5, Qualifying Final vs. Collingwood at the Adelaide Oval

Why they can win the flag

They qualified No. 1. And in an era where any minor advantage could be the difference, the fact they have two home finals — potentially a prelim, should they win on Thursday night — is significant. Adelaide has a 12-1 record at Adelaide Oval this year, too.

Three of the past four AFL premiers, too, have won the flag after finishing first on the ladder.

The Crows also boast the best ‘Core Four Profile’ ranking in the competition and charge into September in awesome form, having won each of their past five games.

Champion Data classifies Adelaide as the best side ‘without the footy’, led by brilliant interceptors Mark Keane and Josh Worrell in defence. The club finished the home-and-away season a stingy second in the competition for points against, behind only Collingwood. Its stout defensive backbone will hold it in terrific stead.

The Crows’ three-headed forward monster of Riley Thilthorpe, Darcy Fogarty and Taylor Walker will propel things at the other end of the ground, especially in Izak Rankine’s absence. Thilthorpe, in particular, looms as a massive finals weapon for the Crows after a breathtaking 55-goal All-Australian season.

They’re also well led by their coach Matthew Nicks and captain Jordan Dawson, who’ve both shown great composure and resilience in high-pressure situations this year to help their team deliver.

Overall, the Crows are also healthy, with all but two of their best players available for week one selection.

Why they can’t win the flag

The Crows are preparing to play in their first finals campaign in eight years. And history dictates that a club embarking on its first finals campaign in a long period doesn’t tend to go on and win it all in that breakthrough campaign.

Especially a club that has climbed from 15th to first in 12 months. An incredible achievement, yes, but one that means they’ll have to buck recent footy trends.

Just four teams have gone from missing finals one year to winning the premiership the next in the top-eight era: Melbourne (2021), Richmond (2017), Geelong (2007) and Adelaide (1997). All of those sides had at least played finals within the previous four seasons, and all bar Richmond had made it to preliminary final weekend within that time period.

Personnel-wise, they might be healthy, but the Rankine void has the potential to derail the minor premiers’ flag tilt. A star of that calibre will be sorely missed, irrespective of Matthew Nicks’ forward firepower. Rankine the player seems born for finals — and the only way he’d return from suspension is if the Crows lost their first final to Collingwood before winning the hard way through to a Grand Final.

And, ideally, if Rankine is not there, fellow game-breaker Josh Rachele would — and yet he’s potentially another game or two away with his knee injury.

Additionally, ball movement has been something of an issue for the Crows, ranking a lowly 13th for their ability to transition from defensive 50 to attacking 50. Plus do they have the midfield depth to match it with the best on-ball brigades in the competition in September?

Saints 'should be rapt' with Silvagni | 01:39

GEELONG CATS

2nd, 17-6, Qualifying Final vs. Brisbane Lions at the MCG

Why they can win the flag

Because they’ve been here before, so many times.

This will be Geelong’s 17th finals appearance in the past 19 years, which has included a remarkable 15 top-four finishes. This club just knows what this time of the year is all about.

Under Chris Scott, the Cats have triumphed twice on the last Saturday in September, and there aren’t many reasons to think they can’t this year.

The Cats, too, are arguably the healthiest team coming into finals, with only young ruck Toby Conway on their injury list. They enter September with all of their best players available, for they are one of the best teams in the competition at managing the full season.

It’s hard to argue that Geelong’s forward unit isn’t the best of any finalist. Key forwards? Just Coleman medallist Jeremy Cameron and understudy Shannon Neale. Smalls? Shaun Mannagh, Tyson Stengle and Brad Close, with the likes of Patrick Dangerfield and Gryan Miers filtering through.

The defence is just as convincing as the attack, led by five-time All-Australian Tom Stewart and stingy stopper Jack Henry, with Sam De Koning and Connor O’Sullivan quickly rising up the ranks.

And one of Geelong’s biggest weapons this year has been ‘The Dash Brothers’, with Bailey Smith and Max Holmes’ gut-busting run and prolific ball-winning ability tearing many opposition teams apart so far. They could be the difference between a win and a loss in September.

Need another reason to believe in the Cats? Scott is the best tactical coach in the game. Boasting a 68.5 per cent all-time win rate, he’s up there with the great modern-day football strategists.

Why they can’t win the flag

History suggests that despite the Cats’ stellar ability to consistently finish high on the ladder, more often than not they haven’t been able to turn that into silverware.

You can spin the aforementioned numbers another way. Since winning the 2011 premiership, the Chris Scott-led Cats have managed 10 top-four finishes in 14 seasons — but for just one flag.

They overcame those accumulating mental demons in 2022 to obliterate Sydney, but in most cases over the past decade and a half, they haven’t.

Under Scott, the Cats have a 70.5 per cent regular-season win rate, compared with a far less convincing 46.7 per cent in finals.

Also, could Geelong’s ‘soft’ draw in the lead-up to the finals work against it? It didn’t in its 2022 premiership campaign, despite playing just two top-eight teams in their final 10 home and away games. But after a heartbreaking preliminary final loss last year to Brisbane last year, coach Chris Fagan raised the following prospect: “This is not Geelong’s fault, but if you look at their last game of the season against West Coast, they were 100 points in front at half-time. It was a low-pressure, low-contested game. Then they have the week off, and then they play Port in a final where it was a similar sort of game, low-pressure, low-contest game. Then they have another week off. I just felt like, it’s good to have the time off, but you need the games that you play to be really hard, tough games, and maybe at the end that showed.”

Again, Geelong has played just two top-eight teams in its past 10 games — and the Cats dropped both of those matches to the Lions and Giants …

Nicks admits inside 50 count a must-fix | 02:48

BRISBANE LIONS

3rd, 16-6-1, Qualifying Final vs. Geelong Cats

Why they can win the flag

Stating the obvious, but because they did it last year.

This will be their seventh-straight finals series under Chris Fagan, with the Lions also featuring in the past two consecutive Grand Finals.

Crucially, the Lions play their best footy against the best sides. They’ve won a league-best seven games this year against top-eight teams, including wins over Collingwood, Fremantle and Hawthorn in the past month. That can’t be underestimated.

Against those top-eight opponents, Brisbane is defensively sound; first for intercept-to-score against, and second for score-per-inside-50 against.

The Lions are also an elite ball movement team going the other way, ranking No. 3 in the competition for the rate at which they transition the footy from defensive 50 to attacking 50.

Overall, the Lions just feel like the most hardened team you can also most trust heading into this year’s finals series. And after winning it from fifth in 2024, the prospect of claiming the premiership from third spot this year won’t intimidate them either.

Why they can’t win the flag

For starters, they’re the hunted. Every opposition finalist goes into September identifying the Lions as the team to beat.

And to borrow a David King-ism, health hasn’t been Brisbane’s best player in 2025.

Injuries to key players have hurt Brisbane throughout the year, with Eric Hipwood, Jack Payne, Noah Answerth, Keidean Coleman and Lincoln McCarthy among the key unavailable names.

And shockingly, despite finishing in third spot, the Lions have the 12th-ranked ‘Core Four’ profile rating — easily the worst among finalists. They also have the second-worst percentage of the top eight.

And while Brisbane is hard to score against once teams go inside 50, it has the tendency to be leaky in transition.

The Lions, like most clubs, love to play a forward-half pressure game. But if the opposition gets past their defensive-midfield zone, Brisbane can be opened up.

Pies call up Cox for Crows clash | 03:38

COLLINGWOOD

4th, 16-7, Qualifying Final vs. Adelaide Crows

Why they can win the flag

You could argue Collingwood was the best team in the competition for the majority of the season.

The Pies were first on the ladder between Rounds 11 and 21, spending just three total weeks outside the top four and earning early-season premiership favouritism for good reason.

And despite their recent struggles capitalising in attack, the Magpies still finished the year as the league’s No. 1 defence by points against.

Assuming they’ll remain difficult to score against, and as long as they’re capitalising on their forward entries, there’s no reason the Pies can’t go 3-0 this September. The week one trip to Adelaide won’t intimidate them at all, for the Pies for years have developed a reputation for being one of the best travelling teams in the competition.

Essentially, they’ve got the same core of players who won the whole thing in 2023. And clearly the Pies have bolstered their list since then, with Dan Houston, Tim Membrey, Lachie Schultz, Harry Perryman and Ned Long to all play in their first finals series as Collingwood players.

While the Pies have the oldest list the competition’s ever seen, it also means they’ve got more than a wealth of experience that’ll hold them in good stead in September.

Why they can’t win the flag

Clearly, the form in the run home is far from ideal. History suggests losing three of your final five home and away games just about dooms your premiership chances.

In particular, the Pies’ punishment game has well and truly tapered off in recent times. Over the past six rounds, the Pies have ranked 13th for intercept-to-score rate, 15th for clearance-to-score rate, and 13th for half-back-to-score rate.

Jeremy Howe’s absence, too, due to a groin issue is significant. While Darcy Moore is the captain of the team, Howe is the general of the backline who sets the team up with aplomb. Without Howe, the Pies seem more vulnerable behind the ball.

While Craig McRae’s side will regain Beau McCreery for Thursday night’s showdown against the Crows, Bobby Hill’s continued absence hurts this forward line and its ability to be dangerous in forward-half transition.

And in another piece of history that doesn’t bode well for the black and white, the last time a team that finished in fourth spot on the ladder wound up winning the premiership was in 1997.

Most overpaid & underpaid players in AFL | 07:25

GWS GIANTS

5th, 16-7, Elimination Final vs. Hawthorn

Why they can win the flag

At their very best, this side is near unbeatable.

And at their best, they beat the best. The Giants have the best win-loss record — 6-3 with a percentage of 109.7 — against top-eight teams this year.

Overall, they enter September in sharp form, winning 11 of their past 13 games. They take the game on and play at a blistering pace transitioning the Sherrin in orange waves.

The Giants are also perennial finalists, featuring in September in seven of the past nine seasons. They know all about this time of the year.

While Geelong might have the most potent forward line, the Giants’ attacking unit certainly gives it a run for its money — and they’ve also got a Coleman medallist. Jesse Hogan, Toby Greene, Aaron Cadman, Jake Stringer and Darcy Jones, who are all set to be healthy and playing in the same side this Saturday, are capable of wreaking irreparable havoc.

In defence, the trio of Sam Taylor, Jack Buckley and Connor Idun is as reliable as they come, with rebound support from Lachie Ash, Lachie Whitfield and Harry Himmelberg.

And should Finn Callaghan catch fire this finals series, watch out. You just sense this explosive midfield is primed for an eye-catching September campaign.

Lastly, after Brisbane’s flag triumph from fifth last year, the Giants are just as capable of winning it this year from the same position.

Why they can’t win the flag

A lack of health and continuity.

While the Giants are set to welcome back an array of players for Saturday’s clash against Hawthorn, they enter the finals with the longest injury list in the competition.

In recent weeks, Hogan has been battling a foot issue, Stringer and Buckley have been sidelined and Brent Daniels has been unable to stay available.

And how many inclusions is too many for the match? The re-injury risk of bringing back so many players for a high-pressure first final is significant.

Inconsistency has also been problematic for Adam Kingsley’s charges this year — the Round 21 loss to the Bulldogs, for example — so they seem nowhere near as trustworthy as a team like the Lions.

And despite their ability to qualify for finals, they’ve only gone as far as a preliminary final this decade.

'No Way a Victim': Rankine fronts media | 01:29

FREMANTLE

6th, 16-7, Elimination Final vs. Gold Coast Suns

Why they can win the flag

Because when they play with dare and speed, there are few sides that can stop them.

One of the shining examples was in the Dockers’ stirring comeback win over Collingwood in Round 19, when they left the Pies stunned by a fourth-quarter blitz headlined by no-holds-barred ball movement in transition.

It’s that style of game in attack, and their stingy defensive unit, which gives Justin Longmuir’s side a shot at fulfilling Fremantle’s flag prophecy. It also has an impressive 5-3 record against top-eight teams — good for third-best in the AFL this year.

Since Round 10, the Dockers have ranked fifth for points against, fifth for score-per-inside-50 against, and second for defending ball movement.

Additionally, the fact that the Dockers go into Saturday’s clash with Gold Coast largely in healthy shape is another crucial boost.

Regaining Hayden Young was an absolute must, while Nat Fyfe has also got himself back on the park for one final run at an elusive flag. Corey Wagner is the only regular first-team player who won’t be available this September.

The forward line has also been in sharp shape in recent weeks, with Josh Treacy, Patrick Voss and Jye Amiss all in good goalkicking form since Round 21.

Why they can’t win the flag

We don’t see that crisp, fast-paced ball movement frequently enough.

Too often this season and under Justin Longmuir, the Dockers have moved the ball in too circumspect a fashion; more focused on how they’re going to defend their goals in transition rather than trying to cut holes in the opposition with their ball use.

Fremantle’s defensive-50-to-inside-50 rate sits second-worst among finalists and 11th in the competition for the season.

Further, since the middle portion of the season, the Dockers have struggled punishing the opposition off turnover — since Round 10, the Dockers have sat just 10th for intercept-to-score rate and clearance-to-score rate.

If they’re not relying on back-half ball movement nor scoring from turnover, they’re almost solely relying on stoppage ascendancy and holding up in the back half to win games.

And while the Dockers will go into Saturday night’s home final as warm favourites, their run to premiership glory after a elimination final win would be tough. Because they’d then play the loser of Geelong-Brisbane — away from home — in a semi-final then, should they win that, the winner of Adelaide-Collingwood — away from home. It’s a nasty side of the draw to be on.

'The man will play' Hardwick on Swallow | 02:46

GOLD COAST SUNS

7th, 15-8, Elimination Final vs. Fremantle

Why they can win the flag

Of all eight finalists, the Suns have the least amount of pressure on them. Making finals for many pundits was the pass mark — and they’ve ticked that off already. Albeit, just.

With expectations on them low, the Suns now have a free swing at a maiden finals campaign. And that’s a dangerous proposition for their September rivals should the Suns play with freedom and dare.

Stoppage is what they’ll lean on when times get tough on Saturday night against Fremantle — and throughout September should they clear the first hurdle.

Powered by All-Australian midfield stars Noah Anderson and Matt Rowell, it’s no surprise the Suns are one of the best sides at the coalface.

Gold Coast finished the regular season sitting third for points-from-clearance differential, fourth for contested possession differential, and second for clearance differential.

And while almost every Sun set to line up on Saturday night will have never played in a final before, that is far from the case for coach Damien Hardwick, who led Richmond to three premierships between 2017-20 and will be a steady head for his young troops.

The inclusion of club stalwart David Swallow, too, should be a timely emotional boost for the playing group.

Why they can’t win the flag

It’s already a massive task for the Suns to go into Perth and beat Fremantle in their first-ever final, let alone for them to go on and win the whole thing.

It’d be one thing for the Adelaide Crows, who hadn’t qualified for finals in eight years, to storm to a premiership in their breakthrough year — let alone first-time-finalists Gold Coast, which has achieved nothing of note in its 14 years of existence to this point.

The overwhelming inexperience of this side could well cost it in high-pressure moments this weekend at Optus Stadium — and even if they progress to the second week.

The Suns own just a 4-6 record against top-eight teams, and their performance against top opposition is part of the reason for pessimism.

Against this year’s finalists, Gold Coast is 17th for intercept-to-score rate, 13th for half-back-to-score rate, and 15th for score-per-inside-50 rate.

Buckley claims "not true" says Lyon | 03:21

HAWTHORN

8th, 15-8, Elimination Final vs. GWS Giants

Why they can win the flag

Don’t let eighth position fool you. Had the Hawks beaten Brisbane, they would’ve earned the double chance. That’s how close the margins are between the teams this finals series.

The fact they were even in that position shows you they’re a quality unit. They’ve won eight of their past 11 games, with their three losses all coming against top-eight sides by 14 points or less.

And despite finishing eighth, Hawthorn could prime itself for a run at the premiership with three ‘home’ finals if it gets past GWS and other results fall its way. The Hawks will travel to Sydney to face the Giants in an elimination final — and if they win, they could get Collingwood in an MCG semi-final if the Pies lose to top-seed Adelaide in their qualifying final. Then, if all is still going to plan, the Hawks could wind up playing Geelong at the home of footy in a preliminary final if the second-placed Cats get past Brisbane in their qualifier. Then, of course, an MCG Grand Final potentially awaits.

Coach Sam Mitchell, too, knows all about this time of the year. He’s obviously not there yet, but there’s a reality in the future where we look at Mitchell like we do Chris Scott; one of the great tacticians of the game.

He’s made the four tall forwards set-up work — in a campaign that produced a completely unexpected Jack Gunston All-Australian blazer — and he’s made Josh Battle and Tom Barrass’ inclusion to the back six virtually seamless.

And with Battle and Barrass in tow, the Hawks have ranked third for points against, fifth for intercept-to-score against, third for clearance-to-score against, and fifth for score-per-inside-50 against.

It’s only ever been done twice, but if there’s a side who could win it all from outside the top four this year, it feels like the Hawks.

With the rest of the competition onto them now, they haven’t quite hit the ‘Hollywood’ heights of last year, but this is a side much better off after last year’s finals experience.

Why they can’t win the flag

For starters, they’re trying to come from eighth to do it. No team has come from eighth to win the premiership, with the Dogs in 2016 coming from seventh and the Lions last year from fifth.

Getting past the first hurdle could be tough, too. In six all-time attempts, the Hawks have never beaten the Giants at ENGIE Stadium.

And while the defence has been as stout as anything, transition the other way could definitely do with some improvement. Sam Mitchell’s side has ranked just 12th for intercept-to-score and 11th for half-back-to-score.

In a further concern, the Hawks sit ninth this year for their 3-7 record against top-eight teams.

You also sense the Hawks are a midfielder or two short to take them all the way, compared to other midfield brigades in the finals series. Gee Will Day would be handy …

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