3DownNation CFL Week 14 predictions: best bets for Lions at Redblacks, Riders at Bombers, & Stamps at Elks

The Canadian Football League heads into Week 14, and we are back to having four games to pick from.

I was half a point away from a winning week, so while the rest of the league basks in a post-Labour Day glow, we’re back here looking to get back ahead of the game.

B.C. Lions at Ottawa Redblacks — Friday, September 5 at 7:30 p.m. EDT

Two teams that didn’t partake in the Labour Day festivities kick off Week 14 in the CFL as the Lions head east to take on the Redblacks.

Injuries have been a big problem for Ottawa this year, and that will be the case again this week, with QB Dru Brown listed as out because of a knee injury. This will be the sixth game that Ottawa has played without Brown this season, and the difference he makes is quite drastic. In the six games that Brown has been able to complete, Ottawa is a modest 2-4, but their offence averages 30.5 points per game. In the four games he hasn’t played, and the one he did play but didn’t finish, Ottawa is 1-4, but they are averaging just 18 points per game, with their high-water mark for points in those games being 20.

Now, I know you don’t come here for “the QB is important” levels of analysis, but sometimes it is just that easy. Ottawa’s offence hasn’t been able to move the ball in the non-Brown games, and they are going up against a Lions offence that has really found their stride. B.C. has scored 30 points in five of their last six games, with Nathan Rourke passing for over 300 yards at the exact same rate. They are facing an Ottawa defence that is in the bottom half of the league in net defence and points allowed per game. The Redblacks have allowed 30 points in four of their last five games.

So, to recap: the Redblacks are missing their QB and when that happens they don’t score. They are facing a team that does score a lot and trying to slow it down with a defence that doesn’t slow many teams down. I like our chances.

PICK: B.C. -6

Saskatchewan Roughriders at Winnipeg Blue Bombers — Saturday, September 6 at 4:00 p.m. EDT

The Banjo Bowl is the middle game of the Saturday triple-header, and if it is anything like the first half of the home-and-home, we should be in for a fun afternoon.

Saskatchewan was able to outlast Winnipeg last week in thrilling fashion, even if we missed a cover by half a point. They put the final nail in the coffin in Regina with an interception by Tevaughn Campbell on a two-point conversion, which he returned for points himself.

With a game that close and that weird, you can certainly understand why oddsmakers have shifted this line to be in the Bombers’ favour. But, I don’t feel like the play on the field was as close as the game indicated.

Saskatchewan’s defensive front has been dominant all season, which was certainly the case against Winnipeg on Sunday. The Riders’ defence got to Zach Collaros for five sacks, and it felt like they were in the star QB’s face all game. The CFL sacks leaderboard is covered in Green and White, with Malik Carney, Micah Johnson, Shane Ray, and Mike Rose all in the top 10.

That is not the group you want to face when you are having trouble protecting the QB, and that is where Winnipeg is now. The defending West champs have given up the third-most sacks in the CFL this year. With the rough outing against Saskatchewan, the Bombers have given up 16 sacks in the last five weeks.

I’d imagine the Bombers get Brady Oliveira more involved this week after a quiet Labour Day Classic, but the Riders’ defence has been smothering against the run this year, so that will be another interesting battle to keep an eye on.

This will likely be a very close game, but the Riders have thrived in those this season. Saskatchewan is 6-0 in games decided in the last three minutes, and they are 6-0 in one-possession games this year. I’m happy to get even one point while taking the team with the best record in the CFL.

PICK: Saskatchewan +1

Calgary Stampeders at Edmonton Elks — Saturday, September 6 at 7:00 p.m. EDT

The Battle of Alberta shifts north for the rematch, with the Elks looking for a much different result against the Stampeders.

Calgary took the Labour Day Classic at home with a 28-7 win, and I don’t see a whole lot that would make this rematch that much different. Yes, the location is changed, but the Stamps are 3-1 on the road this season, while Edmonton is only 2-3 at home, with those two wins coming against Toronto and Ottawa. I don’t really buy the home-field advantage idea.

Last week, I was scared off by the high number because of how competitive Edmonton had been in recent weeks, but the Stampeders showed they are in a completely different tier. Seven of the eight Stampeders’ wins this season have been by more than a TD. This team does not mess around. Yes, the spread is high, but Calgary has proven they are more than capable of winning big.

Their defence absolutely smothered the Elks’ offence last week, while Vernon Adams Jr. had a very quiet afternoon, and Calgary still won by 21 points. Any way you look at this, all signs point towards a Stamps win again this week.

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