2025 NFL offseason moves: Instant fantasy reaction to latest free agent signings and trades

Below is a rolling list of NFL free agency signings and what they might mean for fantasy football purposes in 2025.

This list will be updated as transactions are made across the league. Keep up to date with free agency news on the Rotoworld player news page.

Quarterback Moves

Raiders acquired QB Geno Smith from the Seahawks in exchange for a 2025 third-round pick.

Smith rejoins Pete Carroll in Vegas, and represents a monumental upgrade for Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers after they suffered the cruel fate in 2024 of watching Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell form one of the worst QB rotations in recent NFL history.

As Rotoworld’s Kyle Dvorchak wrote in his analysis of the Geno trade: “Vegas ranked 28th in EPA per passing play. Their two primary quarterbacks— Minshew and O’Connell— ranked 25th and 38th in completion percent over expected (minimum 200 drop backs). Pro Football Focus graded both passers outside of their top-32 quarterbacks.”

Smith, meanwhile, has become an analytics darling over the past few seasons in Seattle, even if the on-field results never followed. Since the start of the 2022 NFL season — when Smith took over for Russell Wilson in Seattle — Geno ranks 12th out of 32 qualifying QBs in drop success rate and 19th in adjusted drop back EPA (expected points added). He’s excelled at intermediate throws. In 2024, Smith had the league’s eighth highest adjusted yards per attempts on pass attempts between 10 and 19 yards. He was top-10 in completion rate over expected on such throws.

Smith was shockingly good as a fantasy producer for much of his time with the Seahawks. Only Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff, and Josh Allen had more passing fantasy points than Geno since the start of 2022. Look for Geno to feed Bowers relentlessly in 2025.

Wide Receiver Moves

Rams signed Davante Adams to a two-year deal worth $46 million.

Adams lands in LA after what was an “aggressive” recruitment campaign by Rams head coach Sean McVay. Adams, 32, will get $26 million guaranteed over his two-year contract.

McVay, according to reporting by The Athletic, wanted Adams “as a large-framed target … who can get open from several alignments.” Adams fits that description well: Last season in New York, Adams logged a career-high slot rate (47 percent) and was top-20 in both yards per route run and yards after the catch per reception over the season’s second half.

Overall, his yards per route run — a good measure of efficiency — was the sixth highest of his 11-year career. Not bad considering his miserable surroundings in both Vegas and New York. Not every metric was kind to Adams in 2024. His EPA (expected points added) per target was on par with unheralded wideouts like Greg Dortch and Ray-Ray McCloud. Throw out Adams’ games with the Raiders in 2024 and his EPA per target was still miserable, in line with Tank Dell and Dontayvian Wicks.

In LA, Adams will take on WR2 duties behind the target blackhole known as Puka Nacua. He should vacuum up the targets vacated by Cooper Kupp, and should be more efficient with those opportunities than the fading Kupp. Make no mistake: Nacua remains by far and away the Rams’ No. 1 receiver. Adams and Kupp in 2024 drew targets at almost the same per-route rate.

Adams should profile, at worst, as a plug-and-play WR2 in fantasy formats this season.

Steelers acquired WR DK Metcalf from the Seahawks in exchange for a second-round pick.

Metcalf apparently ditched the idea of playing in a warm climate and joined the massively run-heavy Pittsburgh offense that last year posted the NFL’s sixth worst success rate and ranked 22nd in passing touchdowns, tied with his former team, the Seahawks.

Metcalf’s 2025 prospects will hinge at least in part on who, exactly, is throwing him the football. The Steelers are expected to hang on to Justin Fields for another season and part ways with Russell Wilson, whose solid early play last season curdled into some of the most inefficient quarterbacking in the NFL. Fields has supported a viable top-15 fantasy receiver (DJ Moore in 2023) though Arthur Smith’s run-first, run-only offense could preclude Metcalf from seeing the necessary volume to achieve WR2 numbers. He could be firmly in WR3 territory if George Pickens stays put in the Steelers offense. Pickens and Metcalf occupying similar roles in an offense that last year had the league’s third lowest pass rate over expected could mean catastrophe for both of their fantasy outlooks in 2025.

Fields, as Sports Info Solution’s Brad Beatson pointed out, might not be a bad fit for Metcalf. Two-thirds of Fields’ targets to Moore in 2023 were on the boundary. Metcalf over his five seasons in Seattle saw 63 percent of his targets on the boundary. In other words, Metcalf doesn’t rely on over-the-middle looks, and Fields doesn’t throw it over the middle.

We talked on the Rotoworld Football Show last week about whether Metcalf profiles as a No. 1 receiver. The answer was no. Metcalf’s EPA per target since the start of the 2023 season is in line with Christian Kirk and longtime Seahawks teammate Tyler Lockett. He’s an elite air yards eater, as only seven receivers over the past two seasons have racked up more air yards than Metcalf. And his air yards share over that span has been greater than Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson, among (many) others. No one saw more downfield targets (32) than Metcalf last year.

Pickens, of course, is also an air yards maven and a deep ball specialist. Both Metcalf and Pickens — if they indeed play alongside each other in 2025 — should be high-variance weekly fantasy options. When all or some of the air yards become real yards, their stat lines will be juicy. If not, well, you know that story. You can’t feed your family with air yards. I’ve tried.

Perhaps an upgrade at quarterback can generate the kind of efficiency Metcalf will require to be a valuable fantasy producer. He could become a value option if public opinion sours enough to plunge him down draft boards.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, meanwhile, will remain Seattle’s WR1, and probably by a wide margin with Metcalf out of the picture. JSN has not profiled as a prototypical NFL No. 1 receiver: Last year, he saw a target on 23 percent of his routes, ranking 44th out of 125 qualifying wideouts. Smith-Njigba was 51st out of 116 receivers in ESPN’s open score, which measures a pass catcher’s separation ability.

Unless the Seahawks add a high-profile wideout in the draft, JSN could be a borderline fantasy WR1 based on target volume alone. He should continue feasting on short-area targets in 2025. Only nine wideouts in 2024 had more targets between 0-10 yards than Smith-Njigba, who was 25th among receivers in yards per route run on short receptions.

Buccaneers re-signed Chris Godwin to a three-year, $66 million contract.

It’s by far the best outcome for Godwin’s fantasy prospects, as I discussed with Patrick Daugherty on a recent Rotoworld Football Show. Godwin, per NFL Network, left $20 million on the proverbial table to remain in Tampa.

Before his catastrophic Monday night garbage time injury against the Ravens, Godwin was as efficient as ever. He finished his 2024 campaign with career high marks in yards per route run, yards after the catch per reception, and receiving success rate in the pass-first Bucs offense.

Since the start of the 2023 NFL season — when Baker Mayfield took over in Tampa — Godwin is 22nd in EPA per target out of 160 qualifying wideouts, just a smidge lower than Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson. Godwin last season before his injury was 24th out of 116 qualifying receivers in ESPN’s open score.

The loss of offensive coordinator Liam Coen — now head coach in Jacksonville — could be the only speed bump for Godwin and the rest of the Bucs offense picking up where they left off in 2024. Tampa’s offense was over its expected pass rate in 12 of 17 regular season games last year.

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