Packers vs. 49ers: 5 things to watch and a prediction for Week 12

The Green Bay Packers will attempt to solidify their playoff position and deal a significant blow to the playoff hopes of a postseason rival when the short-handed San Francisco 49ers come to Lambeau Field for a late afternoon kickoff on Sunday.

Matt LaFleur’s team won’t have Jaire Alexander or Edgerrin Cooper, two key playmakers on defense, but Kyle Shanahan’s team will down their starting quarterback (Brock Purdy) and top edge rusher (Nick Bosa) for Sunday’s pivotal showdown.

Can the Packers deliver what could be a kill shot to the 49ers’ playoff hopes?

Here are five things to watch and a prediction for Week 12:

Facing a backup QB

Brandon Allen, a 2016 draft pick, will start at quarterback for the 49ers. He’s an experienced backup but his teams are just 2-7 when he starts overall, and he hasn’t started a game since 2021. Against a backup quarterback, the Packers must start fast, defend the run game and avoid game-changing mistakes. The plan has to be to put everything on Allen’s shoulders. If the Packers go up early, contain Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason on the ground and avoid turnovers, it’s hard to imagine the 49ers escaping Lambeau Field with a win. Don’t be surprised if Kyle Shanahan gets very creative in terms of manufacturing touches for elite playmakers like McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, so the Packers have to be ready for everything. Allen is a backup, but Shanahan is a top playcaller and the 49ers still have talent around him.

Protecting Jordan Love

With Bosa out, the Packers have a chance to dominate the line of scrimmage on offense. The 49ers have really struggled to disrupt the passer when Bosa hasn’t played this season, and the defense essentially crumbled after Bosa went out last week against Geno Smith and the Seahawks. The 49ers have gotten production out of veteran Leonard Floyd and Maliek Collins, but neither is as threatening without Bosa on the field. Jordan Love should have time in the pocket to attack some of the weak spots in the 49ers coverage. Consistently playing from clean pockets is the best way to produce efficiency in the passing game, and the Packers should have it Sunday.

Red zone spotlight, again

Both the Packers and 49ers have made it look easy gaining yards this season, but scoring in the red zone has been a recurring problem for both teams. The 49ers rank 27th in touchdown percentage in the red zone (48.8), while the Packers rank 28th (48.7). Can the Packers finally start heating up inside the 20? The 49ers have given up touchdowns on 20 of 32 trips into the red zone this season, so this isn’t a top red-zone unit. Also, it stands to reason that a backup quarterback will probably struggle to get the ball into the end zone in the scoring area. The Packers need to find an advantage inside the 20 on Sunday.

Turnovers

Last year’s playoff game turned on a giveaway and ended on a giveaway. Jordan Love and the Packers must protect the football on Sunday. The 49ers are starting a backup quarterback and might need short fields to score, so it’ll be imperative that Brandon Allen is facing 70 or more yards every time he gets the football. Love made one bad throw last week and it cost the Packers. He must recognize the situation on every drop back Sunday — a throwaway or a sack or a punt isn’t a terrible result. Note: the 49ers are 1-3 when they fail to get multiple takeaways this season. If the Packers play a clean game on Sunday, they likely win.

Facing 59

The Packers will welcome a familiar face to Lambeau Field on Sunday: linebacker De’Vondre Campbell. The 2021 All-Pro wasn’t particularly happy with the way his final season in Green Bay played out and was excited to join the 49ers, but he’s struggled in 2024. Teams are attacking him in coverage, and he’s missed a team-high 11 tackles. Can the Packers find ways of putting Campbell in tough situations? Josh Jacobs and Tucker Kraft need to be in attack mode when facing No. 59 on Sunday.

Prediction: Packers 23, 49ers 12 (5-5)

Just win baby. As satisfying as it would be for the Packers to take down the mighty 49ers at full strength, any kind of win is an excellent result on Sunday. This is a golden opportunity for the Packers to increase their playoff odds significantly while severely damaging a team that has knocked them out of the playoffs during three of the last five seasons. The 49ers are reeling and shorthanded and hanging on for dear life in the NFC playoff race. Sure, a commanding and comfortable win would be nice, and it’s certainly possible the Packers will produce one against a backup quarterback. But I’m reminded of last November, when the Packers faced another reeling NFC West team starting a backup quarterback at Lambeau Field — and Matt LaFleur’s team grinded their way to a comfortable but mostly unaesthetic 20-3 win over the Rams. I won’t be surprised if Sunday plays out in a similar fashion. The 49ers’ backs are against the wall, so an inspired effort is likely. But it won’t be enough against a nearly full-strength Packers team that smells blood in the water.

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