We're down to two in Cincinnati: Here's how Paolini can stop Swiatek

Iga Swiatek is playing lights-out tennis. But Jasmine Paolini has made a habit of knocking off big names. Here’s how their Cincinnati final (Monday, 6 p.m. ET) stacks up.

When Elena Rybakina started so fabulously fast in their Sunday semifinal, winning five of the first eight games, doubt seeped into Iga Swiatek’s mind.

Not for long, though.

“At the beginning, I was even surprised that I’m able to keep up with the pace, because we played so fast,” Swiatek told reporters later. “I mean, I just wanted to be there when Elena starts making mistakes -- because I think it’s impossible to play such a good level throughout the whole match.

“Honestly, we played with such a high intensity, I was just going for it. I knew I couldn’t take the foot off the gas.”

Looking like the six-time Grand Slam champion she is, Swiatek rallied famously, winning eight of the next nine games to defeat the No. 9-seeded Rybakina 7-5, 6-3 and advance to Monday’s final at the Cincinnati Open (6 p.m., ET).

She’ll play No. 7 Jasmine Paolini, who was a 6-3, 6-7 (2), 6-3 winner over Veronika Kudermetova.

Swiatek has won all five previous matches against Paolini -- the most recent was 6-1, 6-3 on the grass at Bad Homburg.

Here’s the lowdown:

Advantage, Swiatek

Serving with powerful yet clinical precision, Elena Rybakina jumped out to a 5-3 lead over Swiatek in their semifinal match. And when Swiatek fell into a 15-30 hole, it looked like the set might elude her grasp.

And then, Swiatek did Swiatek things, winning eight of the next nine games.

How did she do it? Swiatek moved her return position back to deal with Rybakina’s big outside serves in both the ad and deuce courts. Her defense and superior movement extended rallies and Rybakina just couldn’t hang. At the same time, her amped-up serve paid dividends on Cincinnati’s medium-fast hard courts.

That’s the kind of problem solving that wins matches -- and why she’s a strong favorite to win this final. This is her third final of the last four tournaments she’s played.

With the win over Rybakina, Swiatek secured her place at the WTA Finals in Riyadh and climbed back to No. 2 in the PIF WTA Rankings, placing her at the bottom of the US Open draw next week.

History suggests Paolini will have her hands full. Swiatek has won 10 of the 11 sets they’ve played -- her forehand has simply been too much for Paolini to absorb.

Swiatek has a vast edge in experience as well. This is her 13th WTA 1000 final in only her 39th appearance. That means she’s batting a robust .333. Only Maria Sharapova (25) and Serena Williams (27) have reached 13 finals in 1000s in fewer appearances since the format introduction in 2009.

This is only Paolini’s third WTA 1000 final.

It’s worth noting that Swiatek has now won 50 matches against Top-10 players -- in 73 tries. Paolini, we should reiterate, is a Top 10 player.

The way Swiatek’s been slicing through the field, it’s hard to imagine her losing. She has yet to lose a set and has dropped only 27 games in the four matches she’s won on court -- there was also a walkover against Marta Kostyuk.

Advantage, Paolini

Here’s all you need to know about her chances:

Previously, the 29-year-old Italian reached two WTA 1000 finals -- and she won them both, most recently in Rome and last year in Dubai.

Paolini understands the stakes here.

“I have to play my game at a really high level,” she said. “We are in the final, I’m playing against Iga, so I need my level to be high. I have to also focus on myself and what I have to do well tomorrow.

“Maybe I need another step, to do those things better.”

First Cincy final loading for both players 🏆

Who will take home the title? 🤔

Presented by @CorpayFX pic.twitter.com/GdNICO3Iki — wta (@WTA) August 17, 2025

To be fair, she’s been doing the heavy lifting here. Paolini has knocked out a pair of two-time Grand Slam champions, Coco Gauff and Barbora Krejcikova. Before that, it was unseeded-but-dangerous Maria Sakkari and No. 35 Ashlyn Krueger.

Swiatek had a walkover in the third round when Marta Kostyuk was injured and has beaten Anastasia Potapova (No. 45), Sorana Cirstea (No. 54) and Anna Kalinskaya (No. 34) before taking down the No. 12-ranked Rybakina.

Don’t discount the letdown factor after that impressive win over Rybakina and the gaudy head-to-head against Paolini.

Last year, when she reached the finals at Roland Garros and Wimbledon, Paolini produced a record of 42-21, good for a winning percentage of .667. This year, she’s actually elevated to 33-13 (.717). She’s got 20 wins in WTA 1000s this year -- only Swiatek, World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka and Mirra Andreeva have more.

“Going to be tough, it’s going to be a challenge,” Paolini said. “I’m going to try to do my best, to serve well, to start, especially the point being aggressive, and we try to make a good match -- and to stay there every, every point.”

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