We’re at the ultimate turning point in the fantasy football season. We now have THREE full weeks of data. Is that perfect? No. But anything can happen in one week. That makes one week of data difficult to trust. And, if two weeks differ, we might be looking at a coin flip. In three weeks, we can at least attempt to establish some trends. And that’s the best that we can do in these fantasy football streets. The uncertainty is what makes NFL football so fun - and fantasy football so frustrating.With those data points, I’m going to do my best to draw some conclusions and rank the tight ends for half PPR in Week Four. And, because we want you to do well, we’re sharing this particular set of rankings for free. If you want to further help yourself out (and also support me), my rankings for every single position, for every single format, are available to Fantasy Alarm Members here. With the NHL and NBA both starting within a month, even just getting a week membership will have you all set up for any and all drafts you have coming up there!Reminder - these rankings below are just for Week 4. If you want my rest of season tight end rankings, in our patented Yin & Yang Tight End format, those are available here at the bottom of this article. As always, I’ll be available for comments or concerns in the Twitter or Reddit threads, so feel free to weigh in there with your own thoughts - or any questions you have for this week!*Players highlighted in red have injury concerns that we need to monitorWeek 4 Tight End Rankings: Tier 1Trey McBride leads in virtually every meaningful category, including route participation and target share. Brock Bowers is too good to sit if he’s playing - unless you also have Trey McBride. So they go here.Week 4 Tight End Rankings: Tier 2Tyler Warren’s 23.9% target share and his 2.41 yards per route run are both top three - he’s also gotten three screens, which creates nice floor. Tucker Kraft is dealing with both a knee and elbow injury, so it’s up to you if you want to pivot there, but you know what he’s capable of. With CeeDee Lamb out, Jake Ferguson has an incredibly safe floor in any sort of PPR, even if he’s not super fast/athletic. He doesn’t have a TD yet, but his 8 targets vs. man to man leads the league, which typically translates well to the redzone as we pointed out here.Week 4 Tight End Rankings: Tier 3This ranking of Juwan Johnson assumes Matt Milano will be OUT this week for the Bills. A little birdy who is pretty plugged with the Bills told my that he expects them to be conservative with him and rest him for this game with a 15.5 point spread. If Milano is set to play, Juwan could move to the back of their tier or early Tier 4 in the Sunday update. Guys like Hunter Henry, Sam LaPorta, and Travis Kelce right now represent your best mix of floor and ceiling, whether you like it or not. Kelce could bounce back big this week, given the way the Ravens defense operates, and the return of Xavier Worthy could actually help him.Week 4 Tight End Rankings: Tier 4Dalton Kincaid is putting fantasy numbers on the board, but his 60% route participation prevents us from ranking him any higher than this. Carson Wentz is good for T.J. Hockenson, but the return of Jordan Addison has us cautious. Kyle Pitts quietly has the second-highest route participation of any TE, but Michael Penix has not proven he can reliably distribute the ball. Zach Ertz is always a safe but kind of boring play. Andrews looked good last week, but the Lions play a ton of man-to-man, which he thrives against - the Chiefs have had his number. Here are his games vs. the Chiefs per our buddies at Pro Football Reference.Week 4 Tight End Rankings: Tier 5The usage for Chig Okonkwo is better than it’s been in his career, plus his 97th percentile speed makes him the “best of the rest” for us right now. Could pop one of these weeks if Cam Ward gets it together. David Njoku and Harold Fannin remain a headache, but Njoku consistently plays more snaps and runs more routes, which is why we have consistently ranked him ahead. Dallas Goedert and Brenton Strange are both the third fiddle on teams that don’t prioritize the TE in the red zone, but at least they play a lot of snaps.Week 4 Tight End Rankings: Tier 6Jonnu Smith has maybe the weirdest profile of any tight end. He plays a part-time role and thrives on short passes - he has a 0.8 yard aDot largely on a league-leading 6 screen passes. Cade Otton almost HAS to be involved this week - he’s quietly running a lot of routes (3rd most among TEs) and he runs 68% of them from a WR spot but has two zeros. With Ja’Tavion Sanders out, Tommy Tremble is a DFS dart throw - the rest of these guys I could do without.Week 4 Tight End Rankings: Tier 7This is the tier of injured upside stashes that cannot be trusted this week. Sweet little mystery boxes.Week 4 Tight End Rankings: Tier 8
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