College football Week 5 oddly specific predictions: Big Game James … wins a big game!

We’re lined up to have one of the most exciting weeks of the regular season.

We’ve got a couple of undefeated and unranked teams (Arizona, Washington) playing ranked opponents (Iowa State, Ohio State). We have four ranked teams going head-to-head, and Lane Kiffin is facing his daughter’s new boyfriend in one of them.

I usually pick only nine games each week, but I’m sneaking this one past my editor: Indiana and new Heisman front-runner Fernando Mendoza will win at Iowa and cover the 7.5-point spread.

I went 6-3 picking straight-up winners last week but missed my first upset alert and am now 23-13 for the season. I still haven’t hit on a stat-stuffer.

Let’s start there as we dive into the Week 5 picks.

Most passing yards

Arizona State’s defense answered the bell last week against Sawyer Robertson and Baylor’s lethal passing offense, but I’m not banking on the defending Big 12 champions doing it two games in a row. TCU quarterback Josh Hoover is your new FBS leader with 333.3 passing yards per game, and he’s got two big-time receivers in Eric McAlister and Jordan Dwyer. Hoover will throw a touchdown to each this Friday and lead all FBS passers in yards (350-plus). Yet, I’m going to take Arizona State to get the win and cover the 2.5-point spread.

Most rushing yards

Illinois surrendered 579 yards and 63 points in a humbling loss at Indiana last Saturday. This week, the Illini welcome the USC Trojans, who rank fifth nationally in scoring (52.5 ppg) and first in yards per play (9.2). Junior college transfer Waymond Jordan is a big part of the Trojans’ success. He ran for only 77 yards two weeks ago in his first road game at Purdue. But I’m banking on Jordan breaking a few long runs to lead all FBS rushers this week (180-plus yards) on this trip to Illinois. I’m also counting on the Trojans covering the 6.5-point spread.

Most receiving yards

Mario Craver had a breakout performance against Notre Dame two weeks ago with seven catches for 207 yards in Texas A&M’s 41-40 win in South Bend. He leads the nation with 147.7 receiving yards per game. This week’s visiting opponent, Auburn, is still upset about what happened at Oklahoma on Saturday. But that doesn’t mean the Tigers are going to play any better. Craver catches two touchdowns and leads all receivers with 180-plus yards in a double-digit victory that covers the 6.5-point spread.

Five big games

No. 8 Florida State (-7) at Virginia

Heading into Friday night’s game, Florida State leads the nation in scoring (58.0 ppg) and ranks second in yards per play (8.9). Virginia ranks second in the ACC in scoring (45.5 ppg), second in rushing yards per game (251.5), and third in yards per play (7.2). So, naturally, bet the under (59.5) and expect defense to win it for the Seminoles. I’m banking on a late, fourth-quarter interception in the end zone by Earl Little Jr. to be the difference.

No. 1 Ohio State (-8.5) at Washington

We really haven’t heard much from Jeremiah Smith thus far. He’s slipped from being tied for third in the preseason Heisman odds to 10th behind nine quarterbacks. This feels like the perfect opportunity to grab the nation’s attention again. Smith goes for 150-plus receiving yards, two touchdowns and the Buckeyes escape Husky Stadium with a one-score victory against a very good Washington team with an explosive offense.

No. 4 LSU at No. 13 Ole Miss (-1.5)

The easiest prediction to make here is that Kiffin is not going to be very forthcoming with the SEC-mandated injury report. He never is. What he’d like more than anything this week is to steamroll LSU linebacker Whit Weeks (otherwise known as his daughter Landry’s new boyfriend). The home team has won the last five meetings, and that’s what I’m going with here. Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss produces 300-plus yards of total offense and three touchdowns in the upset of a top-five team.

No. 17 Alabama at No. 5 Georgia (-3)

The Crimson Tide have won two in a row and nine of the last 10 meetings, including last year’s instant classic in Tuscaloosa. Kirby Smart’s defense should be a little nervous considering how it got lit up by Joey Aguilar and Tennessee two weeks ago. But I like Smart’s chances with two weeks to prepare for wide receivers Germie Bernard and Ryan Williams. Running back Jam Miller’s return from injury, though, is big news. Miller breaks a fourth-quarter tie with a touchdown run and lifts the Crimson Tide to yet another win in the series.

No. 6 Oregon at No. 3 Penn State (-3.5)

After beating up on a bunch of scrubs, we finally get to see what the Ducks and Nittany Lions are really made of. Last December, Oregon beat Penn State to win the Big Ten championship. This game comes down to which of the two teams can apply pressure on the other’s quarterback. That favors Penn State, which sacks QB Dante Moore twice in the fourth quarter and gets a big run from tailback Kaytron Allen to win the game.

Upset alert

No. 15 Tennessee (-7.5) at Mississippi State

Don’t look now, but Jeff Lebby’s Bulldogs are 4-0 and looking to pull off their second upset of a ranked team. The Vols have won eight of the last nine meetings between the teams, including the last two. MSU is going with a rare home “white out” in Starkville. I’m banking on Blake Shapen, Brenen Thompson and Anthony Evans III having a better day hitting on big pass plays than Aguilar, Chris Brazzell II and Braylon Staley. Thompson, who scored the winner in the upset of Arizona State two weeks ago, also catches this week’s game-winner in the fourth quarter.

Reader predictions

We had a glitch last week and weren’t able to collect your weekly predictions. Fire away for Week 5 below.

Week 4 report card

The good: I thought Indiana would get to the quarterback more often than Illinois (seven sacks to two), Mendoza (267 yards and five TDs) would make more plays than Luke Altmyer (146 yards, one TD) and Indiana would cover the 4.5-point spread in a blowout. All of that happened. … I thought Miami’s Carson Beck wouldn’t light up Florida’s defense like Cam Ward did a year ago. He didn’t. But I was right about Miami’s balanced attack putting up more than 20 points, and the Canes covering the spread.

The bad: Utah didn’t come close to beating Texas Tech, and Nebraska didn’t upset Michigan in Lincoln.

Just missed: I picked Oklahoma to win but said the Sooners wouldn’t cover the 6.5-point spread because Jackson Arnold would play well. Arnold played well, but a late safety on OU’s 10th sack of the game helped the Sooners cover the spread.

(Photo of James Franklin: Isaiah Vazquez / Getty Images)

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