AFL Six Points: Don't be fooled

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Each week of the 2025 AFL season, ESPN.com.au's Jake Michaels looks at six talking points.

This week's Six Points features the broken Blues, the rebirth of Patrick Dangerfield, the loss the Hawks needed, and the value of the contested mark.

1. Carlton is broken and not good enough to turn things around

There's a pulse! At least that's what Blues fans will now tell you. That's right, after losing 13 of its past 15 games, Carlton overcame the winless Eagles on a neutral field ... big deal.

The Blues could have beaten West Coast by 200 points on Saturday afternoon and it still would have done little to instill confidence or make me believe this club has truly turned a corner and can once again be viewed as a premiership threat.

Carlton, just like Melbourne, can only win football games one way; relying heavily on dominating at the contest and in the trenches. If the game isn't played on these terms, they've shown no sign under Michael Voss of being able to adapt or adjust to a different game style. The Blues held the Eagles to the lowest contested possession count (77) any side has had in recorded history and enjoyed the fourth-best contested possession differential of all time. This is hardly sustainable and in no way a formula for long-term success.

In fact, you can make the argument the Blues are in a worse position after their win than before it. Forwards Harry McKay and Brodie Kemp are now both sidelined with injuries, and currently no timetable to return.

Nobody will deny Carlton's elite top-end talent, but after that the cliff comes very quickly. There's still an extreme lack of pace through the midfield, not enough precise ball users off half back, questionable selection calls, and they cannot score. Through five rounds, the Blues have only outscored West Coast, Melbourne, Richmond, and Essendon (who have played one game fewer).

Things aren't much better on the other side of the ball. Despite having conceded the fourth-fewest points per game, the Blues' defensive efficiency (scores allowed per inside 50) is poor; they allowed the Eagles to score from 57% of inside 50 entries in Round 5, the fourth-highest percentage they've had in this category in four years.

So much has to change, and time is running out for Voss and co.

Can the Blues get on a roll? Morgan Hancock/AFL Photos/via Getty Images

2. Patrick Dangerfield is still one of the 10 best matchwinners in the AFL

You say two negative things about Geelong over the span of 18 months and you're labelled a Cats hater for life. Well, let's see how they attempt to spin this one...

I've long said Dangerfield, at his peak, is one of the three best players I've ever seen, along with Gary Ablett and Lance Franklin. Yep, I have him ahead of Dustin Martin. Ahead of Patrick Cripps. Ahead of Chris Judd. Ahead of anyone else I've seen play over the last 33 years. But even I didn't expect him to be this good at age 35.

Two weeks in succession Dangerfield has been the best player on the ground for Geelong, tallying seven goals and lifting the Cats to back-to-back wins over Melbourne and Adelaide.

FACT: Patrick Dangerfield is the oldest player in recorded history to have 35+ disposals, 20+ contested possessions, and 7+ goals across a two-week span.

Not only is Dangerfield still the club's best player, but if you could pick any player for one game for their match-winning ability, I'm convinced he'd still be one of the first 10 selections. He is still every bit the game changer and difference maker he was during his most destructive years in the league. He's a nightmare match-up inside forward 50 and still possesses the power and burst to pinch hit at crucial centre bounces.

There's so many stats and numbers that highlight the brilliance and uniqueness of Dangerfield, but I'll leave you with this one. Dangerfield is the only player in recorded history to average at least 20+ disposals, 5+ clearances, and 1+ goal per game for an entire career.

Patrick Dangerfield celebrates with fans after Geelong's win over Adelaide. Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images

3. We need to talk about the value of contested marks

Contested marks. They win you games. Or at least, so it seems.

Watching Collingwood vs. Sydney on Friday night, a game in which the Magpies enjoyed the contested mark advantage 11-1, it got me wondering how often a team wins a game of footy when they take more contested marks than their opposition. Turns out, it does correlate to winning. Since the beginning of 2022, teams that took more contested marks in a game won said game 61% of the time.

But let's dig a little deeper and look at how teams fare when that contested mark advantage grows, and grows. A see-sawing affair with even contested mark numbers is generally a coin flip, but start taking more, and more, than your opponent, and it goes a long way towards winning.

DO CONTESTED MARKS WIN YOU GAMES? WIN CM COUNT BY WIN GAME LOSE OR DRAW GAME 1 48% 52% 2 58% 42% 3 62% 38% 4 58% 42% 5 63% 37% 6 64% 36% 7 72% 28% 8 70% 30% 9 71% 29% 10+ 76% 24%

4. This Hawthorn belting was the wake up call the club needed

There weren't many people who gave Port Adelaide a chance of upsetting Hawthorn on Sunday evening. It didn't matter that the Power had sent them packing from finals last season. And it didn't matter star midfielder Will Day would miss through injury. All signs pointed toward a comfortable Hawks victory.

But the game was over at half time, Hawthorn down 79-20 and looking a mile away from the team that had been installed as premiership favourite only a few weeks earlier.

READ: Do these Hawks talk way too much?

Nobody ever needs a loss, but this might just be one that benefits Sam Mitchell's side in the long run. Despite being unbeaten through four games, the Hawks hadn't been firing on all cylinders. They had looked shaky at times, particularly early in games, but able to win them off the back of 15-20 minute bursts.

This defeat to Port Adelaide is unquestionably a better loss to have than the gallant at-least-we-were-close tight two-goal loss. It's a loss that highlights the evenness of the competition and the desperate need to be fully switched on 100% of the time. It's a loss that proves the Hawks, although still very much a contender, have work to do to remain in that space.

5. Something quirky I noticed

Once again, Gather Round did not disappoint. Great grounds. Warm weather. Huge crowds. And, most importantly, some fascinating matches we simply couldn't take our eyes off. But there was one little quirk.

Last round, we did not have a single game decided by 18 points or fewer. Now that may not seem too remarkable, but the last time that happened across a nine-game round was in Round 9, 2019, over 100 rounds of football ago!

6. My favourite stat of the week

It's been a perfect 5-0 start to the season for Brisbane. But that's what we'd expect from the team that just won a premiership, right!?

Well, not exactly. In fact, over the last 13 years, these Lions are just the second team (joining Melbourne in 2022) to win five consecutive games following a flag. In that time, four teams won just two games from their first five games, three of them had three wins, and four of them had four wins.

The difficulty in backing up after tasting the ultimate success cannot be understated in any way. So far, despite some shaky and unconvincing moments, Brisbane is ticking every single box. You'd rather them be tested each week and pass with flying colours than be out front and at risk of complacency creeping in.

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