Will Carlos Alcaraz's Shanghai Masters withdrawal impact his ATP ranking?

Carlos Alcaraz started his Asian swing with a thrilling run to the Japan Open title in Tokyo – but that will be the last we see of the Spaniard in Asia this year.

The Spaniard’s triumph in Tokyo came after he suffered what appeared to be a notable ankle injury in his opening match, and as a result, he has now withdrawn from the Shanghai Masters — the biggest event of the Asian swing.

“I’m very disappointed to announce that I won’t be able to play the Rolex Shanghai Masters this year! Unfortunately, I’ve been struggling with some physical issues and, after discussing with my team, we believe the best decision is to rest and recover,” said Alcaraz.

“I was really looking forward to playing in front of the amazing fans in Shanghai again. I hope to be back soon and see my Chinese fans next year.”

Alcaraz’s withdrawal is undoubtedly a blow for the Masters 1000 event, though world No 2 and reigning champion Jannik Sinner is still set to be in action, following the conclusion of his China Open campaign in Beijing.

Here, we look at what this withdrawal could mean for the ATP’s two leading stars, as they battle for supremacy — and the world No 1 ranking — at the very top of the men’s game.

As it stands

Twelve months ago, Alcaraz beat Sinner in the China Open final, meaning the pair had 500 and 330 ranking points to defend this week, respectively.

Though Alcaraz did not return to defend his title in Beijing, his run in Tokyo matches that result, meaning he defends his 500 points successfully — and will remain on 11,540 points in the ATP Rankings.

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Having reached the China Open final once again, Sinner has also successfully defended his 330 points from 2024, and sits on his official total of 10,780 in the ATP Live Rankings.

However, Sinner is the significant favourite to beat Learner Tien in Wednesday’s China Open final, and would move up to 10,950 points should he triumph at the ATP 500 event.

That would see him sit just 590 points behind Alcaraz, though he would remain 760 points behind if he were to lose Tien.

What does it mean for Shanghai?

Alcaraz was a quarter-finalist at the Shanghai Masters in 2024, with the star suffering a surprise defeat to Tomas Machac in the last eight.

That run earned him 200 points that he will no longer defend, ensuring that he will drop to 11,340 points once the ATP Rankings update post-Shanghai.

However, the good news for the 22-year-old is that he is guaranteed to remain as the world No 1 without hitting a single ball — with Sinner heading into the tournament as the reigning champion.

After beating Novak Djokovic to lift the title in 2024, the Italian has 1,000 points to defend at the tournament, and the only way he can make up any ground is if he defends the title.

A runner-up finish would secure Sinner 650 points in 2025, meaning he would drop 350 points in the ATP Rankings — dropping 150 points more than Alcaraz will be dropping.

The only way Sinner can gain ground on Alcaraz is if he wins both the China Open and Shanghai Masters titles in the next two weeks.

If he were to win both events, he would sit on 10,950 points, just 390 points behind Alcaraz in the post-Shanghai rankings.

However, any other result for Sinner in Beijing — but particularly in Shanghai — will see him lose ground, and boost Alcaraz’s chances of finishing 2025 as the year-end No 1.

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