‘It’s not working’: Expert verdict on bold trade ‘Blueprint’… and the rebuilding club they should look to

With its 2025 finals hopes quashed and doubts looming over how ajar its premiership window now is, crunch time looms at Carlton.

And for many AFL pundits, the Blues must be bold and brave at the trade table.

“You’ve got to break it down now, it’s not working,” triple all-Australian Nick Dal Santo told foxfooty.com.au.

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“What we’re currently seeing right now isn’t winning them a premiership.

“So how do you bring in some value without disrupting the whole playing list?”

With the Blues to miss finals after featuring in September the previous two years, their list make-up has come into sharp focus in recent weeks.

None more so than on Tuesday night when 9 News chief football journalist Tom Morris reported superstar forward Charlie Curnow – a dual Coleman Medallist and dual all-Australian – had expressed a desire to leave Ikon Park and play for the Gold Coast Suns, primarily for “lifestyle” reasons to escape the “football bubble”.

Charlie Curnow of the Blues takes possession of the ball. Picture: Morgan Hancock/AFL Photos/via Getty Images Source: Getty Images

Morris reported Curnow, contracted until 2029, had been told by the Blues he was “not for sale” and “a required player” at Carlton. He also reported the Suns hadn’t chased Curnow, but were aware of his interest in joining the club.

It’s the latest of many Blues trade twists this year under coach Michael Voss, who’s consistently fielded questions this year on speculation around some of his big-name players, most notably Curnow, Harry McKay and Sam Walsh.

Voss on Wednesday morning declared Curnow was “a very important person to us and he’ll play out his career here”, adding: “He’s a Carlton person and will stay one.”

But as crushing as it would be to lose a player of Curnow’s talent, should Carlton be taking a big-picture view on the situation?

Amid the Blues’ gradual slide down the ladder this year, they’ve been urged to leave no stone unturned this off-season. Four-time premiership Hawk Jordan Lewis even suggested earlier this month on Fox Footy’s On The Couch that dual Brownlow Medallist Patrick Cripps wasn’t untouchable.

Dal Santo said he backed the Blues’ stance on Curnow this week … but suggested others shouldn’t be off-limits.

“If I’m Carlton – and this has been raised for weeks now – he (Curnow) is the one I’d want to keep,” he said. “There’d be others I’d be calling the Gold Coast to say: ‘Hey, what about these other guys? Do you want (Harry) McKay? If you’re calling about McKay, we’ll answer the phone.’

“There’s quite a few layers here, so I think Carlton are right in saying: ‘No, not you, Curnow is not on the table’.”

Voss shuts down Curnow speculation | 02:02

Dal Santo said he was concerned by the lack of depth on Carlton’s top-heavy list.

“I think George Hewett sets a fantastic standard, Nic Newman has done that in the past across half-back and Jacob Weitering is locked in. I think you only need one of McKay or Curnow – I would take Curnow if I’m picking a team that I still want to remain a building block for the next five to eight years – and then you can put the pieces around it,” he said.

“My concern with Carlton is those other pieces aren’t great. They’re not prospect players … I wouldn’t cut it so thin that you lose everybody, but I think there’s a couple of players that you could move on for value.”

Dal Santo, who provided special comments for Fox Footy’s coverage of West Coast-Richmond on Saturday night, said he’d been particularly taken aback by the Tigers’ list profile.

While acknowledging the Tigers were in the early years of an aggressive rebuild – and that their emerging players still needed “three to five years to be consistent week-in, week-out performers” – Dal Santo said the early signs suggested they’d struck a good balance between acquiring young talent while retaining senior players.

“So in defence, you’ve got Nathan Broad, Jayden Short and Nick Vlastuin. Midfield, you’ve got Toby Nankervis, Dion Prestia, Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto. Then forward you’ve got Kamdyn McIntosh and Tom Lynch. So they’ve got this core of senior players that, for a lot of them, clearly aren’t what they once were, but around them they’ve got kids everywhere,” he said.

Harry McKay of the Blues. Picture: Josh Chadwick/AFL Photos/Getty Images Source: Getty Images

“Then you look at West Coast, they don’t have that. They should have it with Jeremy McGovern and Oscar Allen and Elliot Yeo – and Tim Kelly should be playing better – but they’ve cut so deep that they’re actually relying on, as Andrew McQualter said, on a 20-year-old (Harley Reid) to carry your midfield. Richmond don’t have that.

“So if Carlton decides to pull the trigger and say ‘we’re cleaning the decks’, you still need a handful of senior players to create the culture and the standard Monday to Friday while you’re blooding this youth coming through. I think that’s the best way to go through.”

While the Blues clearly remain committed to Curnow – and continue to back in McKay and Walsh – they’d now surely be bracing for free agent Tom De Koning to leave the club.

Unless there’s a late, dramatic script flip, De Koning is set to exercise his free agency rights and join St Kilda on a juicy, long-term deal. While the Blues are prepared to match the Saints’ tenure length offer (seven years), they’re well short in the cash stakes, with St Kilda reportedly prepared to pay De Koning around $1.7 million per season across the life of the deal.

While losing a player of De Koning’s top-end talent would be a blow, there’d be various silver linings for Carlton.

Dal Santo believes Marc Pittonet has the capability to step up and become the Blues’ permanent first-choice ruck. Stats presented by Leigh Montagna on First Crack even suggest Cripps is a more effective clearance player rucking to Pittonet than De Koning.

De Koning’s exit would also provide the Blues with some salary cap relief, which might help them retain son of a gun Jack Silvagni, who’s receiving late interest from Collingwood.

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And, considering the nature of St Kilda’s offer, the free agency compo pick for losing De Koning would be in the first-round.

Whether that compensation selection, ultimately, lands before a bid is placed on father-son gun Harry Dean – the son of dual premiership Blue Peter Dean – remains an intriguing watch. A gun key defender who could partner Weitering in Carlton’s defence early next year, Dean was arguably the biggest bolter of the recent Under 18 national championships, starring for Vic Country with his intercept-lockdown balance. He also went at 89 per cent efficiency by foot during the carnival.

Whether it’s via draft or trade, Dal Santo said the most pressing list need for the Blues was to acquire more efficient ball users.

“I looked at their kicking efficiency as of a couple of weeks ago and there’s a lot of players going in the 50s. You look at that midfield and you’ve got (Adam) Cerra, Cripps, normally Walsh, Hewett’s really serviceable and I respect the game that he plays but it’s more negating … there’s no one through there that’s really slicing you up,” he said.

“You look at the best teams – and let’s just go to Brisbane – Hugh McCluggage can slice you, ball in-hand, you’ve got the Ashcroft’s that can find targets, you’ve got Dayne Zorko off half-back, Cam Rayner comes into the middle, Zac Bailey can slice you ball in-hand. I just don’t see that threat at Carlton.

“I know they got Jagga Smith last year, so maybe that’s their piece that we just haven’t seen yet. But I don’t think you can ever have enough ball users in the modern game … We rave about these guys that can kick the football because they’re so rare.”

Fox Footy commentator Corbin Middlemas on Tuesday night reported on Midweek Tackle that people close to the Carlton-Curnow situation that “at least one of them (Curnow, McKay or Walsh) won’t be there next year”.

Should that come to fruition, that would give the Blues some flexibility to work with. But only if they’re bold and brave.

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