Haaland or Salah, best £4.0m Leeds pick + 4-5-1!

With the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Gameweek 1 deadline just a day away, we’re hearing from our panel of guest writers.

Here, eight-time top 10k finisher Zophar is back for the new season with his weekly Q&A, taking questions on Erling Haaland (£14.0m), 4-5-1, £4.0m defenders and more.

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Q: Is tripling up on Nottingham Forest a good idea for those with an Erling Haaland draft and who are Free Hitting in Gameweek 4?

(via Zimo)

A: The question doesn’t mention which players form your triple-up. So, I’m not sure if it’s a triple defence, one defender + Elliot Anderson (£5.5m) + Chris Wood (£8.0m), or something in between.

So, let’s talk about their assets in general in defence and attack.

I think the first six Gameweeks, Forest have the best fixtures for clean sheets. Barring the away games at Crystal Palace and Arsenal in Gameweeks 2 and 4, the other fixtures look very promising for defensive returns. Along with Everton, their defensive assets are the biggest benefactors of the new ‘DEFCON’ scoring system.

However, it worries me that Forest have been struggling for goals in pre-season. We saw some attacking line-ups from Nuno Espirito Santo in their last few games and with these games being more ‘winnable’ for Forest, does he go a bit more on the front foot and be a bit more open defensively? It’s against his very nature but the team needs to score goals to win football matches. Also, if you are planning to Free Hit potentially in Gameweek 6 (to target Manchester City v Burnley), then the fixture run looks a bit less rosy. I am not against a double-up in defence, but I don’t think it is essential.

But as you mention, you are looking to Free Hit in Gameweek 4, in which case you eliminate the worst fixture in the first six Gameweeks. So, the double/triple-up in defence could reward handsomely.

Anderson is a perfectly good pick at £5.5m and is a bit of a set-and-forget that will tick along, so I like that option there if that’s what you want from that slot in your attack. Despite the fixture list, talismanic goal involvement and spot-kick duties, I think there are better options than Wood in the £7.5m forward bracket, especially given Igor Jesus (£6.0m) and Taiwo Awoniyi (£5.5m) are both champing at the bit now.

Q: Is 4-5-1 with Ollie Watkins and 2x £4.5m forwards a viable strategy?

(via @FPLAnalyser)

A: I tried something similar in one of my drafts. I had a midfield of Bruno Fernandes (£9.0m), Florian Wirtz (£8.5m), Kiernan Dewsbury–Hall (£5.0m), Mohamed Salah (£14.5m) and Cole Palmer (£10.5m) along with DEFCON monsters such as Pedro Porro (£5.5m), Maxence Lacroix (£5.0m), Murillo (£5.5m) and James Tarkowski (£5.5m) in defence. Eli Junior Kroupi (£4.5m) and Marc Guiu (£4.5m) were the forwards.

It could absolutely work, given the scoring boost for defenders this season, but I think it will leave you a little bit inflexible. I think Ollie Watkins (£9.0m) is worth keeping for at least seven Gameweeks and with the wealth of options in the £7.5m bracket, I think some players will emerge who you will want to hop on. Also, you will almost certainly need to make a transfer for at least one of the forwards for when you want to Bench Boost. But if you’re asking if it is a viable strategy, it absolutely is.

Q: Isn’t it much easier to begin the season with Erling Haaland rather than scramble to get him once the campaign is underway?

Q. This one has probably been covered a million times – but I want your view on it over a specific period. If I can only have one of Erling Haaland or Mohamed Salah for the first six gameweeks, who should it be and why?

(via FPL Virgin and The Pretender)

A: There’s no right or wrong answer to this, I’m afraid. Erling Haaland (£14.0m) is a fantastic FPL pick and given his record of starting seasons strongly, there is no reason to definitely not own the Norwegian international.

The reason I don’t own him, and many others on this site also don’t, is Mohamed Salah (£14.5m). Liverpool have added potent weapons to their attack and the Gameweek 1 captaincy is a huge lure against a Bournemouth side with an entirely new backline. Even beyond Gameweek 1, there isn’t a standout week where you can say Haaland is the outstanding captain pick besides Gameweek 6, by when you can make the transfer from Salah.

Could it backfire and could Haaland outscore Salah by 20+ points over that period? Absolutely.

Also, it’s not that difficult to get Haaland in if you own Palmer and, say, Watkins. Palmer down to a £5.5m midfielder lets you take Watkins up to Haaland, so you don’t really need to scramble as long as you have a structure where the funds are not too spread out.

Q: Some analysis on the £4.0m Leeds defenders would be great!

(via Boberella)

A: I’ve been looking into this myself. Out of the promoted teams, I think they’re the ones I fancy backing the most. I think Burnley and Sunderland will struggle a bit. I also think Elland Road will be a difficult place to go for most teams in the league. Jayden Bogle is no doubt the standout at £4.5m, if fit, but let’s look at the £4.0m options as requested.

Jaka Bijol (£4.0m): Suspended for Gameweek 1 but most Leeds fans and journalists expect him to become first choice very soon after. If you don’t need him right away, a 6’4″ centre-back sounds fun to own. However, there is a risk if the centre-back pairing he goes with in Gameweek 1 fares well, Daniel Farke sticks to it for a bit.

(£4.0m): Suspended for Gameweek 1 but most Leeds fans and journalists expect him to become first choice very soon after. If you don’t need him right away, a 6’4″ centre-back sounds fun to own. However, there is a risk if the centre-back pairing he goes with in Gameweek 1 fares well, Daniel Farke sticks to it for a bit. Joe Rodon (£4.0m): Most fans I have spoken to insist that Rodon is first choice and from the numbers, it appears that he will fare well for DEFCON points too. There is a small risk if he has a few bad games that Pascal Strujik (£4.5m) or Ethan Ampadu (£5.0m) are preferred but that possibility looks slim, with 46 starts last season. He’s the one I’m currently favouring. However, there is this caveat from this article: at the age of 27, he’s scored only two league goals in his entire career. Of the 22 Leeds players to have a goal attempt in 2024/25, his average of a shot every 197 minutes was the second-worst.

(£4.0m): Most fans I have spoken to insist that Rodon is first choice and from the numbers, it appears that he will fare well for DEFCON points too. There is a small risk if he has a few bad games that (£4.5m) or (£5.0m) are preferred but that possibility looks slim, with 46 starts last season. He’s the one I’m currently favouring. However, there is this caveat from this article: at the age of 27, he’s scored only two league goals in his entire career. Of the 22 Leeds players to have a goal attempt in 2024/25, his average of a shot every 197 minutes was the second-worst. Gabriel Gudmundsson (£4.0m): Leeds’ new left-back was signed after Junior Firpo’s heroics last season and traditionally, Farke gives both his full-backs license to attack. There is a chance he takes some set-pieces, but he took none during their last preseason game. Also, I’m not so sure Farke will give both his full-backs as much license to bomb forward at the top level, so he might be the one hanging back a bit while Bogle does his thing. There is a very small chance he prefers Strujik at LB in some games but it is unlikely. Gudmundsson’s underlying numbers aren’t great though and he has played as a third centre-back for his national team Sweden.

If DEFCON points are your thing, go for Rodon. If you like some modest open-play attacking threat, Gudmonsson is your man.

Q: If I’m not playing my Wildcard until at least Gameweek 8, rank the best forwards at £7.0m or below.

(via @AR_FPL147)

A: There are very few options in this price bracket who I think are viable FPL picks. In fact, there are only two, in my opinion: Jorgen Strand Larsen (£6.5m) and Evanilson (£7.0m).

Evanilson is Bournemouth’s big chance hogger. I think the striker is set for a better campaign after an adaptation period last season. The fixtures from Gameweek 2 are great and it would not surprise me if he scored at Anfield. There’s a chance he’s on spot-kick duties in Justin Kluivert’s (£7.0m) absence as well.

Strand Larsen is a decent pick. Wolves are not a very high xG side but he is likely to be their focal point and there is a chance he is on penalty-taking duties as well. The fixtures improve for the Midlands side from Gameweek 2 onwards but they have struggled a bit with chance creation in the absence of Rayan Ait-Nouri (£6.0m) and Matheus Cunha (£8.5m). Vitor Pereira is a good manager though and Jhon Arias (£5.5m) is an absolute baller, so I think they will do fine.

Elsewhere, Danny Welbeck’s (£6.5m) minutes look very dodgy to me. I think Georginio Rutter (£6.0m) will get the nod ahead of him in most games and eventually the two new Greek strikers might be groomed to take his place. His fitness is always a worry, as well, with Fabian Hurzeler very coy with team news.

Below this, I don’t think any of Thierno Barry (£6.0m, Beto (£5.5m) or Igor Thiago (£6.0m) can be relied upon as FPL options just yet. Brentford are actively in the market for a centre-forward, while who of Barry or Beto starts for the Toffees is anyone’s guess.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin has just signed for Leeds and will eat into Joel Piroe’s (£5.5m) and Lukas Nmecha’s (£5.0m) gametime, while Eliezer Mayenda (£5.5m) has competition from Guiu.

Q: When has pre-season form predicted player performance in the last few years?

(via @FplSatisfaction)

A: There haven’t been many but I can think of a few. Michu comes to mind; he was on fire in pre-season and carried his form into the league. Riyad Mahrez in Leicester’s title-winning season had a very strong showing, as well. I think it helps the ‘streaky’ forwards, in particular. I remember Olivier Giroud starting well after a few pre-season goals.

For all of these, though, there is always a Mauro Boselli...

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