College Football Playoff: ESPN predicts 2025 12-team bracket, full bowl slate after Week 1

After a wild Week 1 where four preseason Top 10 teams went down, including unranked Florida State shocking the college football world with a 31-17 upset of then-No. 8 Alabama on Saturday, ESPN has completely overhauled its 2025 College Football Playoff bracket projections.

Following losses by preseason No. 1 Texas, No. 4 Clemson and No. 6 Notre Dame, ESPN prognosticators Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach shook up their Playoff projections ahead of Week 2’s slate of games.

Keep in mind, this year’s 12-team CFP bracket format does away with automatic first-round byes for conference champions, with the opening byes going to the Playoff’s top four highest-ranked teams. That change aside, the first round will once again feature on-site home games for the highest-ranked teams numbered 5-8, just like last season. The first-round winners then advance to the quarterfinals, and subsequently to the semifinals, at previously-designated bowl sites.

Check out ESPN’s full 12-team College Football Playoff bracket projection below:

Bonagura: No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Oregon

Schlabach: No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Miami

Both ESPN writers expect Tulane to come out of the highest-ranked Group of Five champion after winning the American Conference, bailing on Boise State repeating in that position after the Broncos lost their season-opener in convincing fashion to South Florida last Thursday.

That said, they split on the No. 5 seed with Bonagura expecting Oregon to finish the regular season as the Big Ten’s third team behind projected Top 2 seeds Ohio State and Penn State. Schlabach, meanwhile, has Miami getting the fifth seed as the ACC champions after knocking off Notre Dame at home on Sunday.

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Bonagura: No. 11 Arizona State at No. 6 Miami

Schlabach: No. 11 Utah at No. 6 Oregon

ESPN’s writers split on how many Big 12 teams ultimately make the field, with Bonagura projecting Arizona State will still make the 12-team field despite losing the Big 12 title game to Utah, while Schlabach gives the Utes the No. 11 seed as his Big 12 champions.

Bonagura and Schlabach flipped their fifth and sixth seeds with Bonagura slotting the Hurricanes as the No. 6 seed after beating Florida State in the ACC title game. Meanwhile, Schlabach has the Ducks as his No. 6 seed as the Big Ten’s third team in the 12-team field.

Bonagura: No. 10 Clemson at No. 7 Texas

Schlabach: No. 10 Florida State at No. 7 Clemson

Bonagura projects defending ACC champion Clemson secures the No. 10 seed after dropping their season-opener to LSU at home, where it will play another Week 1 loser in the seventh-seeded Longhorns, which make the field as the SEC’s third highest-ranked team despite not returning to Atlanta.

Schlabach expects an all-ACC first round matchup after last year’s ACC champion Clemson gets the No. 7 seed after falling to Miami in this year’s conference title game, where it faces off with Florida State, which makes its first-ever Playoff appearance two years after being held out.

Bonagura: No. 9 Utah at No. 8 Florida State

Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Texas

Bonagura remains quite high on Utah, projecting the Utes will win the Big 12 championship over Arizona State as both teams make the 12-team field, where it will face off against ACC runner-up Florida State despite falling to Miami in the conference title game.

Schlabach pits a pair of preseason Top 10 teams that fell in Week 1 in his 8 vs. 9 matchup, with Notre Dame making the 12-team field to face the preseason No. 1-ranked Longhorns, who makes its third-straight Playoff appearance despite not playing for the SEC title.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Cotton Bowl

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Bonagura: No. 7 Texas vs. No. 2 Penn State

Schlabach: No. 5 Miami vs. No. 4 Georgia

ESPN’s dueling writers are split on the Cotton Bowl quarterfinal, with Bonagura expecting the Longhorns to beat Clemson in the first round before what amounts to a home game in Dallas against the Big Ten runner-up Nittany Lions, who both writers expect will lose to Ohio State in the league title game.

Schlabach projects a wild Cotton Bowl that would pit transfer QB Carson Beck and Miami against his former program, the SEC runner-up Bulldogs, who earn the final Top-4 seed despite falling to LSU in the SEC Championship game from Atlanta.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Orange Bowl

Bonagura: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 LSU

Schlabach: No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 3 Penn State

Both writers expect Dan Lanning‘s Ducks will advance past the first round only to travel across the country to play in the Orange Bowl, though they differ on Oregon’s competition with Bonagura projecting LSU will earn a Top 4 seed despite losing the SEC title game to back-to-back league champ Georgia.

Schlabach, meanwhile, sees the Big Ten runner-up Nittany Lions in a rematch from Week 5 of the regular season when Penn State plays the Ducks, who once again fall in an All-Big Ten CFP quarterfinal after it famously lost to eventual national champion Ohio State last season.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Rose Bowl

Bonagura: No. 8 Florida State vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Ohio State

As already mentioned, both Bonagura and Schlabach fully anticipate the reigning CFP national champion Buckeyes building off its Week 1 upset of Texas en route to securing 2025’s No. 1 overall seed as the Big Ten champions after losing in Indianapolis last season.

Where they split is Ohio State’s Rose Bowl competition, with Bonagura riding the FSU train under head coach Mike Norvell and new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn, while Schlabach projects Notre Dame dispatching Texas in the first round only to fall to the Buckeyes in the Granddaddy Of Them All.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Sugar Bowl

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Bonagura: No. 6 Miami vs. No. 3 Georgia

Schlabach: No. 10 Florida State vs. No. 2 LSU

The final quarterfinal is a lot more complicated with Bonagura projecting the Sugar Bowl will be the Carson Beck bowl with the former Bulldogs transfer facing his former program in New Orleans a year after their quarterfinal loss to Notre Dame, though Georgia gets the better of the ‘Canes this time.

Schlabach, meanwhile, expects SEC champion LSU will effectively host FSU after the Seminoles get revenge on Clemson in their opening round matchup, though that ride ends in New Orleands as Brian Kelly finally notches a Playoff win.

CFP National Semifinal at Fiesta Bowl

Bonagura: No. 4 LSU vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Schlabach: No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Both of ESPN’s prognosticators project the Buckeyes will continue their Playoff success and face the SEC runner-up in the first CFP national semifinal, though they differ on the SEC representative.

Bonagura expects Kelly and the Tigers will escape the Orange Bowl with a victory over Oregon, only to succumb to Ohio State in Arizona, while Schlabach projects the Bulldogs will edge out Miami before running into the defending champion Buckeyes with a national title game appearance on the line.

CFP National Semifinal at Peach Bowl

Bonagura: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Penn State

Schlabach: No. 3 Penn State vs. No. 2 LSU

Bonagura and Schlabach both expect the Nittany Lions will make the CFP national semifinal for the second consecutive season, though they disagree on their seeding in the game.

Bonagura has Penn State facing the SEC champion Bulldogs in their home away from home in Atlanta, while Schalbach expects to see his projected SEC champion LSU will utlimately send the Nittany Lions packing with a second straight victory inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

CFP National Championship

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Bonagura: No. 2 Penn State vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Schlabach: No. 2 LSU vs. No. 1 Ohio State

And it all comes down to this, the 2025 College Football Playoff national championship game, where the reigning champs from Ohio State get to defend their title inside Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.

Where the ESPN writers differ is who the Buckeyes will play in a true 1 vs. 2 matchup, as Bonagura forsees an All-Big Ten national title game in a rematch from Indianapolis against the Nittany Lions. Meanwhile, Schlabach expects LSU to be the SEC’s last chance to avoid a third-straight Big Ten national champion.

ESPN’s full 2025 bowl slate predictions

Saturday, Dec. 13

Cricket Celebration Bowl

Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)

Noon ET, ABC

Bonagura: Southern vs. South Carolina State

Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State

LA Bowl

SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)

9 pm ET, ESPN

Bonagura: Oregon State vs. UNLV

Schlabach: Cal vs. Boise State

Tuesday, Dec. 16

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl

Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)

9 pm ET, ESPN

Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Central Michigan

Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Eastern Michigan

Wednesday, Dec. 17

StaffDNA Cure Bowl

Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)

5 pm ET, ESPN

Bonagura: UConn vs. Troy

Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. Coastal Carolina

68 Ventures Bowl

Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)

8:30 pm ET, ESPN

Bonagura: South Alabama vs. Florida International

Schlabach: Georgia Southern vs. Miami (Ohio)

Friday, Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl

Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)

Noon ET, ESPN

Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Louisiana Tech

Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl

Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)

3:30 pm ET, ESPN

Bonagura: Auburn vs. Boston College

Schlabach: Missouri vs. Virginia

Monday, Dec. 22

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)

2 pm ET, ESPN

Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Fresno State

Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Air Force

Tuesday, Dec. 23

Boca Raton Bowl

Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)

2 pm ET, ESPN

Bonagura: Old Dominion vs. Western Kentucky

Schlabach: Rice vs. Toledo

New Orleans Bowl

Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)

5:30 pm ET, ESPN

Bonagura: Texas State vs. Jacksonville State

Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Western Kentucky

Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl

Frisco, Texas

9 pm ET, ESPN

Bonagura: Marshall vs. East Carolina

Schlabach: North Texas vs. Sam Houston State

Wednesday, Dec. 24

Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl

Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)

8 pm ET, ESPN

Bonagura: Boise State vs. North Texas

Schlabach: UNLV vs. Navy

Friday, Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl

Ford Field (Detroit)

1 pm ET, ESPN

Bonagura: Maryland vs. Toledo

Schlabach: Michigan State vs. Ohio

Rate Bowl

Chase Field (Phoenix)

4:30 pm ET, ESPN

Bonagura: Baylor vs. Iowa

Schlabach: Baylor vs. Minnesota

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl

Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)

8 pm ET, ESPN

Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. James Madison

Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Arkansas State

Saturday, Dec. 27

Go Bowling Military Bowl

Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)

11 am ET, ESPN

Bonagura: Duke vs. Memphis

Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Memphis

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl

Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)

Noon ET, ABC

Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Illinois

Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Iowa

Wasabi Fenway Bowl

Fenway Park (Boston)

2:15 pm ET, ESPN

Bonagura: Virginia vs. Navy

Schlabach: NC State vs. South Florida

Pop-Tarts Bowl

Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)

3:30 pm ET, ABC

Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. BYU

Schlabach: Louisville vs. Arizona State

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl

Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)

4:30 pm ET, CW Network

Bonagura: Ohio vs. Colorado State

Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State

Isleta New Mexico Bowl

University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)

5:45 pm ET, ESPN

Bonagura: Hawai’i vs. Northern Illinois

Schlabach: Colorado State vs. Texas State

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl

EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)

7:30 pm ET, ABC

Bonagura: SMU vs. Alabama

Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Alabama

Kinder’s Texas Bowl

NRG Stadium (Houston)

9:15 pm ET, ESPN

Bonagura: Texas Tech vs. Texas A&M

Schlabach: Texas Tech vs. Tennessee

Monday, Dec. 29

Birmingham Bowl

Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)

2 pm ET, ESPN

Bonagura: Missouri vs. South Florida

Schlabach: Auburn vs. Boston College

Tuesday, Dec. 30

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl

Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)

2 pm ET, ESPN

Bonagura: Kansas vs. Liberty

Schlabach: BYU vs. Liberty

Music City Bowl

Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)

5:30 pm ET, ESPN

Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Oklahoma

Schlabach: Michigan vs. Ole Miss

Valero Alamo Bowl

Alamodome (San Antonio)

9 pm ET, ESPN

Bonagura: Iowa State vs. USC

Schlabach: Iowa State vs. USC

Wednesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl

Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)

Noon ET, ESPN

Bonagura: Indiana vs. Ole Miss

Schlabach: Indiana vs. South Carolina

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl

Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)

2 pm ET, CBS

Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. Arizona

Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Colorado

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl

Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)

3 pm ET, ABC

Bonagura: Michigan vs. Tennessee

Schlabach: Illinois vs. Texas A&M

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl

Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)

3:30 pm ET, ESPN

Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Cal

Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Oregon State

Friday, Jan. 2

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)

1 pm ET, ESPN

Bonagura: TCU vs. UTSA

Schlabach: Kansas vs. UTSA

AutoZone Liberty Bowl

Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)

4:30 pm ET, ESPN

Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Florida

Schlabach: TCU vs. Oklahoma

Duke’s Mayo Bowl

Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)

8 pm ET, ESPN

Bonagura: Louisville vs. South Carolina

Schlabach: Duke vs. Florida

Holiday Bowl

Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)

8 pm ET, FOX

Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Washington

Schlabach: SMU vs. Washington

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