Inside the AP Poll: Why USF climbed so high after its shocking upset of No. 13 Florida

I’ve only been a voter for about a month, but already the hardest part about voting in the AP Top 25 poll is that I simply do not know how much I should weigh a great win against a bad loss. Or a sluggish performance compared to a lopsided win over an overmatched opponent.

Each voter will make different determinations. That’s why the AP has so many of us, and it’s why the AP makes sure there are voters in all different parts of the country with all different types of jobs covering college football. The poll is supposed to show contradictory opinions. It is supposed to be extremely subjective.

Which brings me to the curious case of South Florida. USF is 2-0 with one of the best resumes in college football — a 34-7 win over Boise State in Week 1 and the shocking 18-16 upset of then-No. 13 Florida in the Swamp on Saturday. Obviously, I don’t need to explain why a road win over a top-15 SEC opponent is important for a team’s resume. But it’s also that dominant win over Boise State, a team that not only qualified for the 12-team College Football Playoff a season ago but also earned a first-round bye, that impresses me so much.

These two wins, taken together, put USF in the driver’s seat for the Group of 6 spot in the CFP this year; the Broncos had no marquee nonconference wins last year (with a close loss to Oregon) and still made the field comfortably. If the decision ultimately comes down to the selection committee’s perception of the champion of the American Athletic Conference vs. the champion of the Mountain West Conference, it’s likely that USF-Boise State result is an important part of the equation.

But I digress. This is a column about the Week 3 AP poll, not the selection committee’s final CFP rankings come December. My point, though, is that this is a fabulous two-game resume. I was very curious to see how my fellow voters viewed it, and I even second-guessed myself a bit after I submitted my ballot.

As you can see, I ranked USF 21st. The Bulls were not ranked (by me nor the official poll) last week, although they did receive votes. But that’s a tough place to be a week before a massive win. It means that one result could change opinions in a significant way ... or enough voters are unenthused about a team that it is fortunate enough to barely sneak into the top 25 at all.

I wanted to make sure that USF was comfortably in, which is why i went with the No. 21 spot. But as I now look back at the teams I ranked in the 10-to-20 range, I feel a few pangs of regret.

Why did I put Clemson seven spots ahead of USF after the Tigers lost to LSU and trailed Troy by 13 into the third quarter of their second game? I’m basing that vote off Clemson’s potential, essentially. It’s about talent and how high I was on that team all offseason. But USF has actually done the work. Why did I put Indiana four spots ahead of USF when the Hoosiers have played Old Dominion and Kennesaw State? Those aren’t nearly as impressive as the Bulls’ wins.

Regrets, I have a few.

I am glad that my peers ended up voting USF higher than I did so that the Bulls broke into the poll inside the Top 20. That feels right, and I’m honestly impressed that there was such a correction in just one week. Florida fell out of the official rankings completely, and USF jumped into the top 20; that’s not something you see every day when we’re talking about a team that’s not one of the usual Group of 6 contenders.

A couple of stray notes/observations:

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