Fantasy Football Week 7 Defense (DST) Rankings and Streamers

We’re coming off our toughest week of the season, landing just three of the top 10 defenses. Part of that is due to some defenses like the Packers and Patriots failing to step up, but we also saw pretty mediocre fantasy defenses like the Raiders, Bucs, Jets, Bears, and Giants land inside the top ten.

It’s just another example of a pretty wild NFL season. We didn’t have any undefeated teams after the first five weeks. I can’t think of a single team that seems like a truly dominant squad. We see some pretty surprising upsets every week and some pretty awful quarterback play multiple times a week. Perhaps things will settle down in the coming weeks, but, for right now, it’s hard to make sense of the landscape this season.

As a final reminder, what you’ll get below, and every week, is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. Tier One will be my “elite” plays of the week. Tier Two will be plays that I consider strong, while Tier Three will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. Tier Four will be deep-league targets, and Tier Five will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.

Each week, I’ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are

2025 SEASON SUCCESS RATE (Percentage of top 10 defenses correctly predicted)

WEEK 6: 3-7

SEASON-LONG: 29-31

BOD Formula and Philosophy

If you’ve read my earlier articles, then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” While opponents factor into my rankings, I don’t want to elevate a bad or mediocre defense simply because of a matchup, as bad defenses are also bad for a reason.

To find the best plays every week, I utilize the following formula (EPA allowed is in a small decimal point, hence the heavy multiplication):

((PRESSURE RATE x 2) + FORCED COMPLETION RATE+ (TURNOVER RATE x 2))

MINUS

(EXPECTED POINTS PER PLAY ALLOWED x 100) + (CONVERSION RATE ALLOWED X 0.5) + (OPPONENT SCORING RATE x 2))

I then add that total to the team’s fantasy points allowed per game over the last six weeks because fantasy points are the strongest predictor of fantasy points. I will obviously have to make manual adjustments each week to factor in things like injuries or weather issues, but I try not to rank too much based on “gut feel” or concerns about wind, etc.

With that out of the way, onto the rankings.

FOR A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION OF DST PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK, CHECK OUT ERIC’S PICK 3(DST) VIDEO OVER ON THE NFL ON NBC YOUTUBE PAGE.

DST WEEK 7 RANKINGS

RankTier One DSTsOpponentBOD RANKING1Denver Broncosvs NYG42Pittsburgh Steelersat CIN63New England Patriotsat TEN11

The Broncos finished as the third-ranked defense this past Sunday against the Jets and have averaged 8.8 fantasy points per game so far this season. They rank 1st in the NFL in pressure rate, 1st in EPA per play allowed, 1st in conversion rate allowed, and 4th in opponents’ scoring rate, so we love so much of what they’re doing on defense. They are going to be a massive test for Jaxson Dart at home in altitude this weekend. I’m not sure Darius Slayton will be back this week, and I don’t believe we’re going to get two straight upset wins for the Giants.

The Steelers delivered for us last week, and I believe they will again. I know Joe Flacco is now under center in Cincinnati, and that helps a bit, but he’s pretty immobile, and this Bengals offensive line is bad. Meanwhile, the Steelers rank 3rd in turnover rate, 7th in EPA per play allowed, and 9th in the NFL in pressure rate, so despite me having some concerns about their secondary, I think they are in a solid spot in this game.

I think we can also trust the Patriots, even though they let us down against the Saints. The Saints are not a great matchup for opposing fantasy defenses, but the Titans have allowed 12.5 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month and just allowed the Raiders to finish as the 2nd-highest scoring defense of the week. On the season, the Patriots rank 9th in turnover rate, 11th in opponents’ scoring rate, and 15th in pressure rate. The Titans may get that mythical post-firing bump after moving on from head coach Brian Callahan, but Calvin Ridley is likely out, and I just don’t see this going well for Tennessee.

RankTier Two DSTsOpponentBOD RANKING4Kansas City Chiefsvs LV125Cleveland Brownsvs MIA156Jacksonville Jaguarsvs LAR37Los Angeles Ramsat JAX5

The Chiefs defense has not performed for fantasy so far this season, averaging just 5.8 fantasy points per game, but they haven’t played the easiest schedule and they have yet to play a team that gives up more point to opposing fantasy defenses than the Raiders, who have allowed an average of 10 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last four weeks, 4th-most in the league. The Chiefs also rank 5th in the NFL in pressure rate and will face a Raiders offensive line that won’t have Kolton Miller and has struggled to find any consistency. I think we can trust this play this week.

The Browns rank 4th in conversion rate allowed, 8th in opponents’ scoring rate, and 8th in EPA per play allowed, but have scored just 4.0 fantasy points per game this season. The Dolphins have also only given up 4.5 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last four weeks, but things have, understandably, been worse with Tyreek Hill out. Now we have Tua Tagovailoa saying that people aren’t coming to his players’ only meetings. The vibes in Miami are brutal, and I think this Browns pass rush is going to force a few Tua turnovers this season.

It’s just Tuesday, so we don’t have all the latest injury news, but it feels like Puka Nacua may sit this week out with an ankle injury, which is a huge boost for this Jaguars defense. We know the Jaguars have been a tremendous fantasy unit so far this season, ranking 2nd in turnover rate, 3rd in opponents’ scoring rate, and 4th in EPA per play allowed, while averaging 9.2 fantasy points per game. I don’t really believe they’re that good, but I think they’re solid, and this Rams offense without Puka will take a major step back. If Puka does play, I’d expect Jacksonville to be just a fringe top ten defense.

The Rams have been a solid fantasy defense more often than not this season and just had a huge game against a banged-up Ravens team. On the season, they rank 4th in turnover rate, 6th in the NFL in pressure rate, 6th in EPA per play allowed, and 9th in conversion rate allowed. I have been hesitant to play defenses against the Jaguars because it’s been a losing proposition this season, but the Seahawks just finished as the 4th-ranked defense last week, and I think I need to acknowledge that a lot of Jacksonville’s success as an offense has been because of an easy schedule. This Rams defense might be the best unit they’ve faced.

FOR A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION OF DST PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK, CHECK OUT ERIC’S PICK 3(DST) VIDEO OVER ON THE NFL ON NBC YOUTUBE PAGE.

RankTier Three DSTsOpponentBOD RANKING8Atlanta Falconsat SF79Indianapolis Coltsat LAC810Seattle Seahawksvs HOU911Detroit Lionsvs TB1012Houston Texansat SEA113Green Bay Packersat ARI1714Minnesota Vikingsvs PHI215Chicago Bearsvs NO13

The Falcons’ defense thoroughly dominated the Bills on Monday night, and it’s hard not to be impressed with this young defense. On the season, they rank 5th in EPA per play allowed, 6th in pressure rate, 7th in conversion rate allowed, and 8th in turnover rate. Getting A.J. Terrell back has been a big boost to this secondary, and they blitz far more than any other team in the league. The 49ers aren’t a great matchup, and George Kittle may be back this week, but Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall seem really banged up, so we’ll need to watch the injury report this week.

The Chargers beat the Dolphins last week, but they are so banged up on offense. They’re starting almost a complete backup offensive line, plus they will definitely be without Omarion Hampton and could be without Quentin Johnston again. I know Kimani Vidal looked really good on Sunday, but this Dolphins defense is bad. The Colts are a better defense and a much better run defense, while also ranking 5th in the NFL in turnover rate, 12th in opponents’ scoring rate, and 15th in EPA per play allowed. I think we’re getting a solid defense in a pretty good matchup, and they could sneak into the top ten.

The Seahawks and Texans are interesting defenses to rank. The Texans are my top-ranked defense by BOD, and they’re coming off a bye, but the Seahawks give up just 1.3 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last four games. Still, the Texans rank 1st in the NFL in opponents’ scoring rate, 3rd in EPA per play allowed, 3rd in conversion rate allowed, and 4th in pressure rate, so they could be a fringe top ten play this week. Then you have a Seahawks defense that ranks 5th in opponents’ scoring rate and 10th in conversion rate allowed, going up against a Texans’ offense that has one of the worst offensive lines in football. The Seahawks also have tons of injuries on defense, so it’s hard for me to rank them higher than this.

I don’t know how to rank the Lions. On one hand, the Bucs are likely going to be without all of Mike Evans, Chris Godwinand Emeka Egbuka. On the other hand, the Lions are without almost their entire starting secondary, and the Bucs allow just four fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month. Still, the Lions rank 6th in turnover rate and 7th in opponents’ scoring rate, and it’s hard to see who Baker Mayfield will throw to this week. If Bucky Irving misses again, I may actually need to move the Lions up more.

I know people are bullish on the Packers defense, but they’ve scored just 4.4 fantasy points per game this season and just put up a dud against a Bengals offense that everybody was having huge games against. Jacoby Brissett just threw for over 300 yards last week, so I’m not sure it matters much if Kyler Murray plays because Brissett can keep this offense humming. A bigger question might be whether or not Marvin Harrison Jr. will play after a concussion. The Packers rank 8th in conversion rate allowed, 10th in the NFL in pressure rate, and 10th in opponents’ scoring rate, so I know they do some things well, but I can’t treat them as an elite play this week.

The Eagles’ defense hasn’t been quite as elite as we’re used to seeing, and I don’t love the matchup this week. I’d prefer to play the Vikings, but I also don’t love the matchup against the Eagles, who allow just 5.8 fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last four weeks. Are we looking at 6 points from the Vikings defense this week?

The Bears’ defense has averaged 7.2 fantasy points per game this season, but nobody seems to acknowledge that they’re not an awful unit. They’re not one we want to play all the time, but they have a solid matchup against the Saints, and it’s easy to see them finishing with 6-7 points this weekend.

RankTier Four DSTsOpponentBOD RANKING16Carolina Panthersat NYJ2717San Francisco 49ersvs ATL2118Philadelphia Eaglesat MIN2019Tennessee Titansvs NE2420New Orleans Saintsat CHI2521New York Giantsat DEN2622Miami Dolphinsat CLE31

I don’t want to play the Panthers defense, but if Garrett Wilson doesn’t play with this knee injury, could you talk yourself into the Panthers in a deeper format? Justin Fields won’t have anybody to throw to, so the Panthers can just stack the line of scrimmage to stop scrambles and Breece Hall. I can see it working out.

The Saints rank 7th in turnover rate, which is nice, but they average just 5.7 fantasy points per game this season, and the Bears have allowed just 1.7 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last four weeks.

The Dolphins have a great matchup, but I can’t advocate for you to use them in fantasy leagues.

RankTier Five DSTsOpponentBOD RANKING23Los Angeles Chargersvs IND2324New York Jetsvs CAR3125Washington Commandersat DAL1626Las Vegas Raidersat KC2827Tampa Bay Bucsat DET2128Arizona Cardinalsvs GB1929Cincinnati Bengalsvs PIT2730Dallas Cowboysvs WAS2931Buffalo BillsBYE1432Baltimore RavensBYE32

Each week, Tier 5 will be defenses that I don’t think anybody should play outside of the deepest formats.

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