We Got Our First Peek At What The Playoff Committee Values

Welcome to the Defector College Football Watch Guide, where Israel Daramola and Ray Ratto will tell you which of the weekend’s college football games are worth giving a crap about.

Israel: We got our first edition of the college football playoff standings and hoo boy, it’s time to get MAD ONLINE. The main takeaways from the first bracket are that the SEC and the Big Ten are swallowing up all the real estate, the Big 12 makes a decent show of it, and literally no one has any respect for the ACC, which is a huge blow to Miami’s chances.

Texas A&M is high up there as the only undefeated SEC team, but that status is going to be tested during the back end of the season. The committee similarly has a lot of faith in Ole Miss, which, we’ll see I guess. And maybe this is just a testament to how much you can miss about the college season even when you’re paying close attention, but it only just dawned on me when I saw the bracket that BYU is undefeated. Good for them!

The real drama of the rankings actually begins at No. 10, starting with two-loss Notre Dame. The Domers haven't actually beaten anyone of note, yet they are eight spots above Miami, the team that handed them their first loss. The committee shut down any idea that Miami could weather two losses this year by putting them all the way at 18, giving them little to no chance of making the playoff. In fact, the committee seems so disgusted with the ACC that they have its two leading teams, Virginia and Louisville, side by side at 14 and 15, respectively. Essentially, the ACC's spot in the big show will come down to the conference championship game. Barring a series of unfortunate events, Miami has no chance of crashing that party.

Then, most delicious of all, is Texas at No. 11. TEXAS! A team that has only looked particularly good in a single game, Red River—and what have I told you about Red River, never trust what Red River shows you. The Longhorns have an awful loss to Florida, and even in the Mississippi State game that turned their fortunes around they only escaped by a fingernail in OT. But the insiders just can’t quit Arch Manning, who they’re rooting for like he’s goddamn Rudy. In the grand scheme of things, none of this means anything and it could all look different by next week. But you can already see what the committee values and who stands to benefit.

Ray: That is of course the problem with all these committees—they show their cards almost immediately because they have no sense for drama. The only way these teams change much between now and Rece Davis Day is through injury, when the committee members let their personal biases reveal themselves further. This does not include Notre Dame, of course, which is in no matter what happens from this point forward unless Navy wins Saturday by six touchdowns and Pete Hegseth personally threatens to order an air strike over the committee room, and even then the committee might move to Cancun and operate in secret session. This is the single greatest constant of college football, and in a world where you cannot rely on the power of ESPN Bet, you can count on this. The specific teams may shift a bit, and almost surely this coming week, but this is essentially your cast of characters.

Just an added note here. You’ll notice that almost all the ranked teams are on the road this week (Texas has a bye, as do three of the top four non-power conference schools according to the all-knowing ESPN Playoff Predictor: North Texas, South Florida and Memphis), so the possibility of movement due to unimpressive wins, potential losses or our personal favorite, shitty officiating, is pretty high. The next time you hear someone say, “We got an honest shake from the refs,” you will be locked in a fever dream that grips your skull and claws off the top.

And now the games.

Tulane at Memphis – Friday, 6 p.m. ET on ESPN

Tulane is better than you know, for what that may be worth, while Memphis is desperate to get the Odd Kids Out spot in the playoffs and the attendant opening-round loss to Georgia. This is worth watching just to see if the Green Wave can steal a win and enhance James Madison’s chances of getting the 12th seed and reminding everyone how Cignetti got his start. – Ray

Indiana (2) at Penn State – Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET on Fox

By now the curiosity of Indiana is in figuring out their weekly margin of victory. Curt Cignetti doesn't mind bringing down the hammer to make a point, and in dragging the Hoosiers to their current lofty position he has driven the stake in with consistent depth and force. Indiana has scored more points than any FBS team and has a margin of victory that rivals the best team in the nation, North Carolina Central (look it up, proles). This will look like a huge resume builder when in fact it’s just a scheduled beatdown that makes sense to watch only if you either went to IU or still hold an anti-Penn State grudge. – Ray

Georgia (5) at Mississippi State – Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET on ESPN

This is the team that most profoundly scares all the Big Ten knowers, but this one will not convince anyone. Mississippi State is tricky enough but not nearly well positioned enough to make much of a dent here. Georgia isn’t likely to jump up with a convincing win, either, so the Bulldogs rise only in comparison to how much LSU can make ‘Bama fall. – Ray

Texas A&M (3) at Missouri (22) – Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET on ABC

A&M gets a test here, and the problem is that it may get such a severe test that its carefully crafted resume could suddenly look slightly less . . . well, yeah, you know. Missouri isn’t bad, but not good enough to get into the top 11, and A&M cannot survive on having the best metrics that none of the committee members pay attention to because they all believe in the infallibility of their own eye tests/label shopping habits. – Ray

Ohio State (1) at Purdue – Saturday, 1:00 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network

If you watch this by choice, you deserve to have your streaming devices repossessed. Nothing good can come of it, trust us. – Ray

The Citadel at Ole Miss (6) – Saturday, 1:00 p.m. ET on SEC Network

Lane Kiffin scheduled this with a ski mask on—then again, his jib is cut as a brigand, so even though it is just an unscheduled bye at full in-season prices, it looks like he did. The Citadel is in a death battle with Furman and East Tennessee State for fourth place in the Southern Conference, so they will be expected to put up a supreme effort and lose only 51-7. – Ray

Syracuse at Miami (18) – Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN

Do not think for a second that Syracuse can’t beat Miami the same exact way they beat Clemson. 'Cuse has nothing to lose, and they play that way, like a drunk sailor in Vegas who all of a sudden finds himself on a heater. Miami is ill-equipped to handle teams that are unpredictable, and also must depend on Carson Beck to make good decisions. But don’t feel bad, Miami, that’s on the very low end of poor financial decisions your city has made throughout history. – Israel

Oregon (9) at Iowa (20) – Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS

Nobody likes Oregon’s resume because its conference schedule does not include Ohio State or Michigan, but the back end of the schedule does have the Hawkeyes, USC, and Washington, so this is the start of their season. We won’t learn if Oregon has the elite defense its numbers suggest, but if they can put up a number offensively they may win some folks over. Iowa, meanwhile, is Iowa. – Ray

Florida State at Clemson – Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET on ACC Network

I’m not a big anime guy but I did decide to revisit one I’ve always adored, Neon Genesis: Evangelion. It’s got it all: despair, depression, existentialism, the battle within the soul between nihilism and hope, Christian philosophy mixed with Nietzschean questions about morality and its value, as well as abstract, impenetrable images of sheer pain and mental dissolution. No other show has captured all these qualities so perfectly until this game between FSU and Clemson. Here we have two dogshit teams that might literally be driving their coaches insane. You already got Dabo spouting off conspiracies about gambling refs just to get the heat off his back. Mike Norvell would presumably be just as manic as Dabo if he weren't a soulless automaton. In this game, the two men are coaching for their careers. I can only hope I transcend my body into goop, becoming singular with the entire human existence. – Israel

LSU at Alabama (4) – Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC

What if LSU’s offense finally shows up purely out of spite for how much they hated Brian Kelly? It’s farfetched, I know, but fantasy is all LSU has right now—that and their typical witchcraft, not least of which might include jambalaya. Alabama is the darling of the SEC again and they know it. They’re not losing dumb games (yet) and we’re all so bored we’ve convinced ourselves that Ty Simpson deserves a Heisman. There’s no reason in the world to back LSU here, and yet I still believe in the almighty power of spite. May it be on the Tigers’ side. – Israel

Notre Dame (10) at Navy – Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC

Uhh, no. Maybe if Navy hadn’t lost to those passing-game pretty boys at North Texas, but they did, so we reiterate: no. – Ray

BYU (7) at Texas Tech (8) – Saturday, 9:00 p.m. ET on ABC

This is by far the most interesting game of the weekend with the single exception of the Florida State-Clemson Degrade-O-Thon, and not just because of the committee ratings. BYU is unbeaten with a three-point win over Utah (13) while Tech’s signature win is 34-10 win over, yep, Utah. That makes Tech three touchdowns better than BYU by Rule 3 of the International Math For Morons standard, but because Tech is only giving 10 in all the big kids’ sportsbooks, the people who take your money see 11 points of invisible value in BYU. Either that, or a lot of Mormons like kicking up to the South Point with money that could do more charitable works. Boiled to its essence, Tech is better. – Ray

Nebraska at UCLA – Saturday, 9:00 p.m. ET on Fox

The Bruins and their well-coiffed offensive coordinator who everyone keeps treating like the coach are better prepared to get back on their good vibes tour this week. I know Matt Rhule essentially dedicated himself to staying at Nebraska, but I still think he’s halfway out the door. And Dylan Raiola doing cosplay should not be able to match an actually talented QB in Nico Iamaleava. If UCLA keeps losing, we’re gonna have to keep being reminded of the black guy who is the real interim head coach, and I don’t think the media really wants that. Don’t let the media down, guys! – Israel

San Diego State at Hawaii – Saturday, 11:00 p.m. ET on our secret place to watch things maybe illegally

Well, it ain’t midnight, but the Hawaii boys are back! – Israel

The Offbrand Games Of The Week

We remain pot-committed to Oberlin’s quest to find victory in the face of spectacular defeat, and we are pleased to report that the Yeos are getting closer, losing last week to Denison only 62-9 and scoring their fifth touchdown of the year. Next Tuesday it’s MACTION! in it’s most MACTIONTASTIC way: UMass at Northern Illinois, aggregate record 2-16. Bring it, lads. And finally, the New Jersey Game Of The Year is also tomorrow, as unbeaten Salisbury (the Sea Gulls, not the Steaks) face unbeaten Christopher Newport (the Captains, not the Walkens) for New Jersey Conference supremacy even though neither school is located in New Jersey. When new governor Mikie Sherrill gets off her ass and prioritizes the environmental disasters that are the Giants and Jets, we’ll talk about conference realignment. – Ray

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