Steelers 4 Downs: Browns defense could evoke a big night from Russell Wilson deep pass game

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1. Go long on the lake

Could a matchup with the host Cleveland Browns mean a big Thursday night for Russell Wilson, George Pickens and the Pittsburgh Steelers’ deep passing game?

The Browns defense has proved susceptible to the big play through 10 games this season. They’ve allowed 36 passing plays of 20 or more yards, fourth most in the NFL. According to pro-football-reference.com data, only the New York Jets (9.6) have a deeper average depth of targeted throw against than the 9.4 yards downfield opponents have on average passing against Cleveland. That has helped contribute to a league-high 12.7 yards per completed pass against the 2024 Browns.

Adding in running plays — only the New York Giants have allowed more rushes of 20-plus yards — and Browns opponents this season have gained 20 or more yards on 8.4% of their snaps, the highest rate in the league (per Sharp Football Analysis).

Pro Football Focus’ grading rates the Browns as the league’s second-worst defense in coverage. Also, the Browns have only two interceptions.

In four starts, Wilson has eight completions of 32 or more yards. Justin Fields had only six in his six starts , and Kenny Pickett had seven completions of more than 32 yards in his 12 starts for the Steelers last season .

2. Picking Pickens

It’s no secret that, regardless of the quarterback, Pickens is the alpha of the Steelers’ WR corps. During Sunday’s 18-16 win against the Baltimore Ravens, Pickens had eight of the Steelers wide receivers’ 10 catches, 89 of the unit’s 92 yards and 12 of its 16 targets.

Even when factoring in the Steelers’ tight ends and running backs, Pickens accounted for 75.12% of the Steelers air yards in Week 11, per to NFL Next Gen Stats. That was the most among any of the league’s receivers for their teams.

Pickens’ share of the targeted air yards for the season is 47.7%. Only the Tennessee Titans’ Calvin Ridley (50.1%) has more dominated his team’s stable of pass-catchers.

3. Nothing ‘junior’ about it

Coach Mike Tomlin downplayed Joey Porter Jr.’s subpar game the week prior in Washington. But by a few measures, the second-year cornerback followed up one of the worst games of his career with one of his best.

According to New Gen Stats, Porter did not allow a reception over 31 coverage snaps against the Ravens. He lined up across from Rashod Bateman on 22 of those coverage snaps. PFF lists just three targets from Lamar Jackson to a player whom Porter had in coverage but none to Bateman.

This after PFF accounted for six Commanders receptions against Porter seven days before that. Porter also was flagged three times in Washington and not at all versus Baltimore.

PFF gave Porter the third-best grade of any NFL cornerback during Week 11. It was the second-highest PFF graded game of Porter’s career. The Washington game was the second worst.

Sunday was the second time since Porter became a starter early during his rookie season that he was not charged with a reception against. The six Commanders receptions charged to Porter were a career most.

4. Better with Jameis

In converse to their defense, the Browns’ offense is one of the worst in the league at making big plays, at least for the season as a whole. Since Jameis Winston took over for Deshaun Watson, things have been trending upward.

Cleveland was without a passing play of at least 40 yards all season — the only team to make it through 10 weeks without one — until Winston’s 89-yard pass to Jerry Jeudy on Sunday in New Orleans. Only four teams have fewer passes that have gained 20-plus yards (23): 10 in three starts by Winston after only 13 in seven starts by Watson.

Cleveland has scored a touchdown on 12.9% of its offensive possessions, the worst rate in the NFL. But while the Browns were a league-worst on third downs under Watson (19.8%), with Winston they are converting 43.1%.

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