Expert predictions for men's & women's singles

The US Open is set to get underway on Sunday, August 24th, with Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz widely considered to be the two favourites to take the crown.

Sinner, now world No. 1, has had an impressive hard-court season, most recently winning Wimbledon. Alcaraz has also shown strong form, including reaching the final of the French Open and winning the Cincinnati Open earlier this year.

As a result, there are plenty of intriguing things to predict ahead of the US Open, and The Tennis Gazette’s writers have shared what they think is going to happen.

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Who do you think will win? (ATP & WTA)

Matthew Johns: The Cincinnati Open final has thrown a bit of a curveball into my original prediction, but I think I am still going to go with Jannik Sinner. Sinner has not lost a match at a hard court Grand Slam in nearly two years and I think Carlos Alcaraz is the only player who can stop him.

Iga Swiatek really looks like she is back to the world beating player that she once was, and right now she seems like the world number one. Winning Cincinnati has been a good omen for players going into the US Open in recent years, and while her rivals appear to be facing a bit of a crisis of confidence, Swiatek appears to know exactly what sort of player she is.

George Patten: 128 men will enter the competition with title ambitions, but it’s hard to imagine 126 of them taking home the trophy. Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, on the other hand, look like the overwhelming favorites. It’s tricky to judge which of the two will come out on top, especially with question marks surrounding the Italian’s condition after his retirement in Cincinnati. However, should he recover in time, Sinner may just have the edge over his rival in New York.

For all her success in 2025, Aryna Sabalenka is somehow yet to win a major title this year. Losing in the finals of the Australian Open and French Open, and then in the Wimbledon semis, the Belarusian continues to come up short. Returning to Flushing Meadows as the defending champion, she’ll be determined to get her hands on the trophy once more, and could do so in convincing fashion.

Peter Lynch: If recent Grand Slam history is anything to go by, it’s a toss-up between Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, and I think the Spaniard just edges this one!

Aryna Sabalenka has come agonisingly close to more Grand Slam success this season, but I think she’ll finally get over the line on the hard courts of New York.

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Lee Clarke: I’m going for King Carlos Alcaraz in the men’s event. Sinner looked spent at the Cincinnati Open, and Alcaraz will be smarting after losing his Wimbledon crown to the world number one.

Which big name do you think will flop?

Matthew Johns: There are a few options for this answer, particularly in the men’s singles draw, with world number 13 Daniil Medvedev the one who is standing out most to me. Medvedev has only won three matches during the North American hard court swing, and looks a shadow of the player that won the US Open title in 2021. The former world number one’s Grand Slam record this year also suggests that he could be very vulnerable at the US Open this year, as he has only won one of his four matches.

George Patten: Expectations are high for Iga Swiatek in New York, entering the tournament in red-hot form. After struggling (by her standards) during the first few months of the year, the Pole turned her season around in remarkable fashion, winning Wimbledon and the Cincinnati Open. She could well carry that momentum through to the US Open, but may be in for a shock-upset, especially if she finds a certain Latvian in her draw once again…

Peter Lynch: Naomi Osaka has won the US Open twice, and despite just reaching the Canadian Open final, I can’t see her enjoying a lengthy stay at Flushing Meadows this time around as she continues her quest to get back to her very best.

Lee Clarke: I keep saying Novak Djokovic will upset the elite and win a 25th Grand Slam title but I actually think he goes out early here. The tour isn’t getting any easier for the icon and I sense another early exit here.

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How far do you think Novak Djokovic will go?

Matthew Johns: Everyone knows that Novak Djokovic is only really bothered about Grand Slams at this stage of his career, but it was still somewhat of a surprise to see him withdraw from the Cincinnati Open. Djokovic has reached the semifinals of every Grand Slam so far this year, but his lack of match play coming into the US Open feels significant. I think that Djokovic could be vulnerable to an early upset like he suffered in 2024 or at best he could reach the semifinals again before falling to either Jannik Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz, either way I don’t think a 25th major is on the cards in New York.

George Patten: Everyone expected Novak Djokovic to play a lighter schedule in 2025, but few would’ve predicted it to be this light! Since the beginning of June, the Serb has played just two tournaments, the French Open and Wimbledon. The US Open will be his third in as many months, as he continues to focus on the Grand Slam tournaments. A semifinalist in all three majors so far in 2025, Djokovic can still compete with the very best, but it would be a big shock to see him overcome the likes of Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz to win Grand Slam number 25 next month. Another semifinal appearance could be on the cards, but any more than that would be a real surprise.

Peter Lynch: Novak Djokovic will be desperate for one more Grand Slam title, but I think he’ll fall just short here and reach the semifinals.

Lee Clarke: I just can’t see how his body holds up for two weeks on a hard surface and do think he will succumb to someone in one of the rounds before the second week gets underway.

How far do you think Coco Gauff will go?

Matthew Johns: Coco Gauff has also struggled throughout the North American hard court swing, particularly with her serve that has been all over the place at times. However, perhaps Gauff’s greatest strength is her mindset and her ability to win matches that she really should not, something that will probably be even greater with the New York crowd behind her. That being said, she is now the world number three and could have to play both Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek, so I do not see Gauff getting past the semifinals of the US Open this year.

George Patten: After winning her second Grand Slam title in Paris, Coco Gauff has failed to impress on the WTA Tour. She will return to Flushing Meadows looking to rediscover her form, and could well do just that. The 2023 champion has a great chance of returning to the final, but may miss out on the title, especially if she faces the world number one in the championship match.

Peter Lynch: It’s always tricky to fully examine Coco Gauff at Grand Slam level, with the American having suffered a nightmare first round exit at Wimbledon shortly after winning the French Open. I think she’ll feel at home in New York before falling at the quarterfinal stage.

Lee Clarke: She’s my pick to win. Despite a rough Wimbledon, she’s had a great year and I fancy her to go all the way at Flushing Meadows.

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How far do you think Ben Shelton will go?

Matthew Johns: Despite not being the American number one, Ben Shelton has been the real star for US tennis over this summer. Shelton’s win at the Canadian Open was a real benchmark, and he has already proven how he can elevate his level at Grand Slams. It feels a very real possibility that Shelton could reach the US Open semifinals again, just like he did in 2023. Sinner and Alcaraz will still probably be too much for him, but if, for whatever reason, they falter, then I can definitely see Shelton picking up the pieces.

George Patten: Prior to the Canadian Open, Ben Shelton had grown a reputation for saving his best tennis for the Grand Slam tournaments. Winning his maiden Masters 1000 title in Toronto, Shelton proved he can compete year-round, but will still hope for one more big major run before the end of the year. If the draw opens up for him, you wouldn’t be surprised to see the young American advance to his third Grand Slam semifinal at the US Open.

Peter Lynch: Ben Shelton is flying high on the ATP Tour at this moment in time, and I can see his fine form continuing at the US Open. He won’t win the event, but a semifinal run is definitely on the cards.

Lee Clarke: Another run to the semis beckons for Shelton. He’s in fine form and will be buzzing for the Grand Slam in front of his home fans.

Which outsider do you think will do well?

Matthew Johns: Gabriel Diallo feels like a good pick for a run at the US Open this year, with the young Canadian having an impressive 2025 season. The big server has not actually played many matches during the North American hard court swing, as he keeps bumping into these top players. In fact, at his last four tournaments, Diallo has only lost to top 10 players, something that he will be hoping to avoid at the US Open. It feels significant that Diallo is seeded at the US Open this year, as he now knows he is guaranteed to avoid the very top players until at least the third round.

It almost feels wrong to call a former US Open champion an outsider, but Emma Raducanu has not been a real threat at this tournament since winning the title four years ago. While she is still unlikely to be challenging for the title, Raducanu’s recent form means that players will be desperate to avoid her when the draw is released. Raducanu having a deep run at the US Open also feels very dependent on her own draw, as being unseeded means she could play anyone from Aryna Sabalenka in the first round.

George Patten: There are few players more likeable in tennis than Spain’s Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, who by all accounts, is one of the nicest guys on the ATP Tour. Three-times a losing finalist in 2025, the world number 18 is on the cusp of a big breakthrough and could be set to make his presence felt in New York. He may not be the name on everyone’s lips, but don’t be shocked to see Davidovich Fokina still going strong during the second week of this year’s US Open.

Peter Lynch: Victoria Mboko stunned everyone with a superb success at the Canadian Open, and I think she can enjoy a really strong run on the big stage in New York given her current momentum.

Lee Clarke: I’m going to jump on the Joao Fonseca hype and back him for a career-best run at a Grand Slam. I don’t know why but things are going to click for him soon.

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