5 Value bets for the league phase of the Champions League

While several of the usual suspects landed routine wins, there were historic, high-scoring wins for some of the competition’s weaker sides.

25/26 UCL League Phase OutrightsOddsUnion Saint-Gilloise (Top 9-24 Finish)+125Pafos (Top 9-24 Finish)+200Kairat Almaty (To Finish Bottom) +110Tottenham (Top 8 Finish)+138Arsenal (League Phase Winner)+400

Odds courtesy of BetMGM. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

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The value bets for the top end of the 25/26 UCL League Phase table

Arsenal’s trip to Athletic Bilbao looked tricky on paper. Bilbao have been tough to beat on home soil for some time, and with the Gunners by no means at full strength for the visit to the Basque Country, many felt that Arsenal would have to settle for a point.

Nevertheless, Mikel Arteta’s men systematically ground their Spanish opponents down to secure a rock-solid 2-0 win on the road to kick-start their 2025/26 Champions League campaign.

The Gunners reached the last four last season and will be considered to have a serious chance at going at least one further this time.

According to Transfermarkt, Arsenal now have the second-most valuable squad in world football. Using the combined market value of their league phase opponents, Transfermarkt believe the Gunners have the second-easiest set of league phase fixtures this year.

This, coupled with their rock-solid victory in Bilbao, means we see serious value in the Gunners topping the league phase. The betting markets only give them a 20% chance of doing so right now.

Using Transfermarkt’s same analysis, it’s said that Tottenham Hotspur have the easiest set of league phase games in 25/26. The combined market value of their opponents is €2.66bn, significantly lower than the combined market value of Arsenal’s opposition (€3.02bn).

Spurs’ narrow 1-0 win over Villarreal has got their campaign up and running in positive fashion. They stand a good chance of making the most of their next three games against Norwegian minnows, Bodo/Glimt, AS Monaco and Danish outfit FC Copenhagen.

That’s why we’re confidently backing them to clinch a top-8 position at this early stage, with the betting markets giving them only a 42.19% chance of doing so.

Assessing the underdogs to watch after Matchday 1

It was a dream Champions League debut for Belgian side Union Saint-Gilloise. The historic club made the short trip across the Dutch border to Eindhoven, where they landed a shock 3-1 victory.

Sebastien Pocognoli was delighted with his side’s intensity and aggressive press, which may catch out a few more teams along the way in the league phase.

The Belgians will be difficult opposition for Newcastle next month. They also have winnable games against Galatasaray, Marseille and Atalanta. To that end, they have a better than 50% chance of finishing inside the top 24 but won’t have enough for a top-eight spot.

Fellow Champions League debutants, Pafos FC, have taken Cypriot football by storm after forming only 11 years ago. They reached the Conference League’s last 16 in 2024/25 and are bidding to make a statement in the UCL league phase this season.

They ground out a hard-fought goalless draw in Olympiakos to start their campaign. The Cypriots even finished the game with ten men but had the resilience and shape to frustrate the Greek giants.

David Luiz recently joined the team, and the club is no stranger to exceeding expectations. That’s why we feel a speculative back of them to follow in USG’s footsteps and finish within the 9th-24th places is a savvy move at this early stage.

Kazakh side, Kairat Almaty, still cannot believe their luck in reaching the UCL league phase. They defeated Celtic on penalties in the final qualifying round, after holding the Hoops to two goalless draws, home and away.

According to Transfermarkt, their total squad market value is just over €12.5m. This is a mere fraction compared to the rest of the league phase.

Even Qarabag FK’s squad market value is double that of the Kazakh side. Only four other teams have a total squad market value of less than €100m.

With finances playing such a big part at football’s elite level, Kairat Almaty could become the whipping boys of the UCL league phase. They were beaten 4-1 by Sporting on Matchday 1 and still face tough tests against Real Madrid, Inter, Arsenal and Olympiacos.

The betting markets still give them less than an even-money chance (47.62%) of finishing bottom of the league phase, which underestimates the scale of the challenge they face.

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