The Best NFL Bets for Week 2

The opening week of the NFL season was not a successful one for the betting public. In Circa’s weekly picks contest in Las Vegas, the top five most frequently picked teams (Giants, Seahawks, Falcons, Broncos, and Lions) all failed to cover the spread. In our own The Ringer 107 contest, none of our five show teams had a winning week (thanks for nothing, Baltimore). I did squeak out a 3-2 opening week with my “Favorite Five” bets in this column, however.

Now, the story of Week 2 is overreactions. Where did the market go wrong by reading too much or too little into what we just watched? I’m back with more thoughts on the entire Week 2 slate, starting with the five bets I’ve made already. Let’s all ignore the part where I said I liked the Giants in Week 1 and get ready for 16 more NFL games.

The Favorite Five

I’ll be highlighting my favorite five picks each week throughout the season, which will serve as a preview for my picks on The Ringer 107—a season-long contest between The Bill Simmons Podcast, The Ringer NFL Show, The Ringer Gambling Show, and The Ringer Fantasy Football Show. I’ll be partnering with Cousin Sal to make the Gambling Show’s Friday picks.

Buffalo Bills (-7) at New York Jets

It will be hard for another game this season to top the drama that Baltimore and Buffalo delivered in Week 1. One of the things we learned in that game is that Buffalo’s defense still has major issues. Every defense will struggle against the Ravens, but the Bills looked woefully unprepared to stop Baltimore’s multidimensional rushing attack and explosive passing game

This isn’t a new problem for the Bills. From Week 9 onward last year, Buffalo ranked 24th in defensive expected points added (EPA) per drive. They found themselves in barn burners with the Lions and Rams and even struggled to put away New England because the Patriots were able to control the ball so effectively.

I won’t compare the 2025 Jets to Lamar Jackson’s Ravens or even to last year’s Lions or Rams, but if you squint, they look a bit like a poor man’s Baltimore. The Jets offense seemed to be miles ahead of the usually prepared and well-drilled Pittsburgh defense in Week 1. The most encouraging thing was how well quarterback Justin Fields was able to avoid sacks, an issue that has plagued him throughout his career.

The Jets won’t have the element of surprise this week, but as a full touchdown underdog at home, they are a bet for me on Sunday.

Verdict: Bet Jets +7

Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) at Kansas City Chiefs

The Eagles faced the passive, zone-heavy Dallas defense in Week 1, and Jalen Hurts responded by forcing almost every throw underneath and relying on his legs to move the ball. New Eagles offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo had a nice script of play calls on the opening drive, but I came away relatively unimpressed by Patullo’s creativity for the rest of the game. The Eagles moved the ball efficiently for three quarters, but the game slowly descended into a slog against what might end up being one of the league’s worst defenses.

For Philly’s offense, this week’s matchup against the aggressive, more man-heavy defense that Kansas City likes to run should be considerably different. But will we see Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo throw a curveball of his own and play a lot more zone than he typically does? The Cowboys’ zone forced the Eagles to be extremely methodical and caused Hurts to hold the ball even longer than he usually does. For all of his strengths, his inability to anticipate throws and throw guys open against zone coverage remains a flaw in his game.

The Chiefs defense should have some alarm bells ringing after Week 1. Maybe Spagnuolo was surprised by just how pass heavy the Chargers went. He’s usually the master of second-half adjustments, but the Chiefs simply never found a way to get a key stop in the secondary.

In the Super Bowl last February, we saw that the Eagles linebackers and Cooper DeJean in the slot can do an excellent job corralling the Chiefs’ short passing game, cutting off Kansas City’s access to the middle of the field. If there’s a vulnerability in the Eagles’ current defense, it’s defending the intermediate and deep parts of the field, where their no. 2 cornerback and safeties can get exploited. But that is not an area where the Chiefs offense has had any success lately, and they likely won’t this week with Xavier Worthy out and Rashee Rice still suspended.

There were 62 points scored in the Super Bowl, but Patrick Mahomes led the Chiefs to 16 of them in garbage time and gifted Philadelphia two touchdowns off turnovers. This matchup profiles as an under for me.

Verdict: Bet under 47 points (-110)

Los Angeles Rams (-5.5) at Tennessee Titans

Both of the Rams’ starting offensive guards, Steve Avila and Kevin Dotson, are considered week-to-week because of sprained ankles, and it would not be surprising if both players miss Sunday’s game. In a matchup against the excellent Titans interior defensive line, those injuries are a recipe for Matthew Stafford to take a lot of hits. We only have to look back to the Rams’ 1-4 start last season for a reminder of how much the Rams offense struggles when multiple starting linemen are out.

The Rams squeaked by the Texans in Week 1 but managed to score only 14 points at home. Now they are a sizable road favorite in a matchup where both defenses have the advantage.

The Titans defense held Bo Nix to just 4 yards per attempt, while Denver converted just 6-of-17 third- and fourth-down attempts. The defense kept Tennessee in the game possession after possession and kept giving the (largely inept) offense a chance to get back into it.

Cam Ward’s debut certainly didn’t look good in the box score, but given the situation on the road against an elite defense with offensive line injuries, I didn’t think he looked overwhelmed. The Titans had several high-leverage drops, and Ward took a few costly sacks, but I wouldn’t meaningfully downgrade the Titans offense because of that game. It’s important to monitor the injury status of tackle JC Latham, but my high rating of Tennessee’s defense and an injured Rams offensive line makes the Titans a live underdog on Sunday.

Verdict: Bet Titans +5.5

Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5)

It’s always interesting to see when the betting market is consistently for or against a particular team. Last week, the market was so against Carolina that it pushed Jacksonville out to a 4.5-point favorite by kickoff on Sunday. The look-ahead line for Carolina’s Week 2 game was Cardinals -4.5, and by late Wednesday, it was out to -6.5. Arizona was far from impressive in Week 1, but this matchup against Carolina is a great opportunity for Arizona’s run game.

Arizona ranked seventh in EPA per rush in 2024 and now faces the Carolina defense, which has been the league’s worst against the run since the start of last season. There were certainly injuries that contributed to how bad they were last season, but the opening week wasn’t much better from the Panthers, as Jacksonville ran the ball 32 times for 200 yards (6.3 per carry). Defensive lineman Tershawn Wharton suffered a hamstring injury in that game and is out this week.

Carolina didn’t have much of a pass rush either, and Trevor Lawrence frequently had a ton of time to throw. The Panthers finished 31st in pass rush win rate and 27th in run stop win rate in Week 1. If Carolina falls behind early and Bryce Young is forced to play catch-up with a limited skill-position group, this game could get out of hand.

Last week in this column, I said that it was hard to make the case that Arizona should be favored by 6.5 against anyone on the road. I stand by that. However, if it’s playing at home against an arguably bottom-three team in the league, I’m willing to lay the 6.5 points here.

Verdict: Bet Cardinals -6.5

Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) at Las Vegas Raiders

No offense surprised me more in Week 1 than the Chargers’. Yes, the Jets were stunningly efficient and the Colts took a blowtorch to the Miami secondary. But the notoriously run-heavy Chargers came out and threw the ball all over the yard against the Chiefs with tremendous success. The Raiders also showcased real explosiveness through the air in Week 1, so the question here is which offense will have more success sustaining it in Week 2. The Chargers play a zone-heavy defense with a ton of two-high safety looks. That should force the Raiders to operate more underneath than they had to against New England. The Raiders finished Week 1 with the highest explosive pass rate in the NFL.

Defensively, they forced Drake Maye into one of his worst games as a pro. Whether you want to blame New England for that or not, you have to at least upgrade the Raiders defense. There was so much uncertainty surrounding this group due to all of the lost snaps because of injury last season, and they held up quite well. Defensive coordinator Patrick Graham is able to get the most out of his talent. I feel confident in backing the Raiders in the second game on Monday Night Football, as long as you can get it at +3.5.

Verdict: Bet Raiders +3.5

The Rest of the Slate

Now let’s get to the rest of the slate, starting with Thursday night’s game in Green Bay all the way through the first game of Monday’s doubleheader.

Washington Commanders at Green Bay Packers (-3.5)

Green Bay enters Thursday’s game with a handful of injury questions, notably to offensive guards Zach Tom and Aaron Banks. The Commanders did an excellent job of generating interior pressure against the Giants in Week 1, and Dan Quinn’s defense could again find success if the Packers interior line is shorthanded. With that being said, I think that Green Bay is capable of producing a top-five offense and defense in terms of efficiency this season. Micah Parsons will be able to play more snaps in this game than he did in Week 1, and the Packers defensive front can make Washington one-dimensional by limiting the run game.

Since the start of last season, Washington’s defense has had the league’s sixth-highest explosive play rate allowed, and Green Bay ranks second in offensive explosiveness. The Commanders will probably move the ball methodically, but I see Green Bay getting big plays in chunks and pulling away to win this game. I’m not afraid to lay a big price, and did so with the Green Bay moneyline (-174) rather than taking the Packers at -3.5, because of the increased possibility of a backdoor cover in a potentially close game.

Verdict: Bet Packers moneyline (-174)

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)

Just as we all expected, the Bengals and Jaguars defenses stood tall to deliver critical wins in Week 1. These were two of the worst defenses in the NFL last year, and I’m not sure we learned a whole lot about either group in their openers. Jacksonville faced a hapless Carolina passing offense (sorry to the Bryce Young truthers) and the Bengals barely squeaked by the Browns, mostly because of some bad luck for Cleveland on deflected interceptions and field goals. Joe Flacco and his army of young skill-position players (like Harold Fannin Jr. and Dylan Sampson) actually moved the ball decently well against Cincinnati and had a high success rate on third downs.

Week 2 will bring a real test for both of these defenses, and thus I’d look to either bet the over or nothing. This total didn’t really move from the lookahead line last week, but anything under 50 points does feel a little low.

Verdict: Lean over 49.5

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5)

Let’s call this the Overreaction Classic. The Giants looked worse than most people expected in a divisional road game and got blown out by Washington. The Cowboys were better than most expected and nearly beat the defending Super Bowl champions. The market has properly reacted to those results, and the Giants are now essentially the same price they were before Week 1. So why on earth would you bet the Giants this week? They couldn’t block Washington at all last week and Russell Wilson looked decently washed throughout the game. I wouldn’t be surprised if this line reached 6 by kickoff.

But there’s no way I could play Dallas at this price either, and I won’t be obsessively contrarian and back the Giants. That Giants secondary is still really flawed, and Dak Prescott looked healthy and dialed in on his intermediate and downfield throws in Week 1. I’ll pass.

Verdict: Pass

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-6.5)

If you could inject Ben Johnson with truth serum, I suspect he’d wish he still had Jared Goff, with all his limitations, as his quarterback. After Chicago’s scripted opening drive ended with a touchdown on Monday night, a lot of Caleb Williams’s flaws resurfaced. His inconsistent downfield throwing led to him missing receivers, and it wasn’t until the Bears were down 10 in the final four minutes that their offense finally began moving the ball again. Williams held the ball a lot longer than Goff did, he wasn’t making decisions as quickly, and wasn’t as consistently accurate as Johnson’s former QB in Detroit.

If Week 1 is any indication, both sides may have lost the Ben Johnson breakup. In their first game without interior linemen Kevin Zeitler (left in free agency to Tennessee) and Frank Ragnow (retired), the Lions offensive line struggled to block Green Bay. The offense couldn’t efficiently run the ball, and the Lions couldn’t find any explosive downfield plays. I really like the discipline the Green Bay defense showed in Week 1, but it’s pretty alarming how little Goff was able to throw downfield.

It’s important to monitor the injury status of multiple Chicago defensive backs ahead of Week 2. Detroit has an overwhelming advantage with its skill group against the Bears secondary if Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon are unable to play. Minnesota exploited a similar advantage in the second half on Monday night. I’m waiting until later in the week to get a better picture of the Chicago secondary, but it’s a clear lean to the Bears for me. If Detroit is going to have this many issues developing offensive explosiveness, the market is too high on them and they could be a .500 team.

Verdict: Lean Bears +6.5, waiting on injury news

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-1.5)

New England and Miami both would have been excellent potential buy-low options in Week 2 after each lost comfortably in Week 1. The problem is, they are playing against each other. The Patriots defense gave up multiple explosive plays to Geno Smith and the Raiders. Normally, that would be a red flag heading into a matchup against Miami, but the Dolphins offensive line is such a disaster that they had to resort to signing Patriots reject Cole Strange this week. The Patriots don’t have much talent at the skill positions, but seemingly everyone was wide open for the Colts against the Dolphins’ porous secondary last week. This one is a pass for me.

Verdict: Pass

San Francisco 49ers (-3) at New Orleans Saints

The 49ers defense impressed me on Sunday in Robert Saleh’s first game back as defensive coordinator. The run defense immediately improved after it was a problem area for San Francisco in each of the last two seasons. In many ways, though, this defense remains a rebuilding unit—but it is one that should be able to shut down Spencer Rattler and a bad Saints offense. This game is difficult to bet because of questions about the 49ers offense. On Wednesday, Kyle Shanahan said it was a “long shot” that quarterback Brock Purdy, who injured his toe and left shoulder in Week 1, would be able to play. Tight end George Kittle has been placed on injured reserve, and receiver Jauan Jennings’s status is in doubt. So this looks like it’ll be the Mac Jones Show. I’ve seen enough of that to not be interested here.

Verdict: Pass

Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

I was optimistic during the preseason that this Seattle offense would be better than many thought, but that group did not play well in a Week 1 loss to the Niners. The Seahawks ran almost no play-action, which is fairly shocking given what we saw from both Klint Kubiak’s Saints and Sam Darnold’s Vikings last year. Against San Francisco, 124 of the Seahawks’ 140 total receiving yards came from Jaxon Smith-Njigba. It looked like the offense a team would run when it has no faith in the quarterback or pass catchers.

The Seattle defense had Brock Purdy fooled for most of the game and forced him into a lot of bad decisions. Some of Purdy’s risky throws paid off, like the game-winning touchdown to Jake Tonges, while others resulted in turnovers. The Seahawks have an opportunistic secondary and a stout defensive line that can slow down Pittsburgh’s running game. That front could make the Steelers offense become quite one-dimensional on Sunday.

Aaron Rodgers was very efficient in Week 1 as he finished with the eighth-highest EPA per dropback. He’ll face a much tougher test in his Pittsburgh home opener. Points will once again be at a premium in a Seahawks game.

Verdict: Lean under 40.5 points

Everyone’s Week 2 Survivor Pick: Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-11.5)

Yeah, Baltimore blew last week’s game in the final five minutes in ways only they seem to know how. While we’re all joking about the Ravens, my belief that they are the best team in the NFL hasn’t changed. John Harbaugh’s late-game coaching meltdowns are concerning, but the Ravens have the capability to pummel bad football teams.

With that being said, the Browns offense showed me enough in Week 1 that I could only look toward betting the over here. Cleveland has multiple skill players that impressed against the Bengals, and Flacco was quite effective on third down. It’ll be hard for the Browns to score enough to keep up with Baltimore, but Flacco can do enough to keep this game close and keep me away from laying the points.

The Ravens will be a very popular survivor pick, but I try to avoid divisional games in those contests, and thus I am fading Carolina for the second straight week in my survivor pools and picking Arizona.

Verdict: Pass

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)

The Falcons are traveling to face the reigning NFC Offensive Player of the Week. After rewatching the Vikings’ Monday night game, it’s remarkable that J.J. McCarthy won the award for just 15 good minutes of play as he led the Vikings back from the hole that his pick-six put them in. The market for this Week 2 game opened with Minnesota as a 4.5-point favorite, which felt like it was a little too high. Now that it’s been bet down to 3.5, I have no interest in taking Atlanta. After all, this is by far the best defense that second-year QB Michael Penix Jr. will have faced. A prime-time road game against Brian Flores is a really difficult task for a young passer. Combine that with McCarthy’s inexperience, and I’d be tempted to grab some action on the first-half under.

Verdict: Lean first-half under

Denver Broncos (-2.5) at Indianapolis Colts

The Colts’ game against the Dolphins was my first rewatch on Monday morning. That’s partially because I am a Colts fan and wanted to bask in the glory of the team’s first Week 1 win since 2013. But also mostly it was because I was trying to discern whether that game said more about the Colts offense or the Miami defense. The answer is somewhere in the middle, but it was quite striking seeing how many coverages Miami busted in the first half alone. The Colts offense will face a considerably stiffer test at home against Denver on Sunday, but I can’t help but think about what we saw last December when these two teams met in Denver.

Jonathan Taylor was walking into the end zone untouched to give the Colts a 20-7 lead in the third quarter when he dropped the ball inside the 1-yard line. From that point forward, the Colts crumbled—a Michael Pittman Jr. fumble set up Denver for an easy field goal, then a big punt return set up Denver for a touchdown, and AD Mitchell threw a crossfield backward pass on a trick play that was returned for a touchdown. Just like that, Denver led 24-13. But for two and a half quarters, the Colts defense had Bo Nix in a blender. Nix finished the game with three interceptions and now he’ll face an Indianapolis defense that looks to be better coached under new coordinator Lou Anarumo than it was under Gus Bradley last year.

Anarumo’s defense showed better versatility in Week 1. The rebuilt Colts secondary held up against a quality group of Dolphins skill-position players. The lookahead line for this game was Denver -3.5, so you could make a case that Denver is a buy-low opportunity after a sloppy Week 1 win, but I think the market remains too bullish on Denver.

Verdict: Bet Colts +2.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans (-2.5)

The Buccaneers eked out an NFC South win in Week 1 with a late-game rally against Atlanta, but there were plenty of worrying signs about the offense. They finished with the 30th-best offensive success rate—ahead of only the Giants and Titans. The makeshift offensive line that is currently without star left tackle Tristan Wirfs struggled to hold up consistently, and Mayfield’s completed just 53.1 percent of his passes—a big dip from last season. . All of that is concerning as the Buccaneers head into a second straight road game, this time against one of the league’s elite defenses in Houston.

Can either team successfully run the ball in this game? Tampa Bay was 23rd in run blocking according to PFF last week, and Houston’s offensive line generated basically no push against the Rams. Both defensive lines project to have a considerable advantage in this game.

I’m really tempted to buy low on Houston, but the offensive line was so bad in Week 1 that I refuse to do it. It’s under or nothing as I expect the defenses to control the game.

Verdict: Bet Under 42.5 (-110)

Favorite five:

Jets +7

Titans +5.5

Raiders +3.5

Cardinals -6.5

Eagles/Chiefs under 47

Other bets I’ve made:

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