R16 preview: Spotlight on under-siege pair, can Swans muzzle Dogs?

Struggling Port Adelaide and Carlton open the round on Thursday night, while the improving Roos take on the Hawks in Tassie

Ollie Wines is tackled by Tom De Koning during the R12 match between Port Adelaide and Carlton at Adelaide Oval on May 30, 2024. Picture: AFL Photos

THE spotlight will be shining bright on Port Adelaide and Carlton as the pair of underfire sides open the round with each needing to find a win to reignite its season.

Sydney will be out to continue its charge toward the top eight when it hosts Western Bulldogs the following night, while Hawthorn might not know what to expect from an improving North Melbourne in Launceston.

Here is who and what to look out for across round 16 as Brisbane, Essendon, Geelong and Greater Western Sydney have the bye.

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Port Adelaide v Carlton, Adelaide Oval

Thursday, June 26, 7pm ACST

Last time: Port Adelaide 11.13 (79) d Carlton 9.11 (65), R20 2024

What it means

Port Adelaide (6-8) had shown signs in a pair of victories that it might make a late surge toward the top eight until it was unable to make Sydney pay for its inaccuracy in a listless defeat. The Power are now on the brink of having their last season under coach Ken Hinkley fall apart well short of finals but can still aim to turn their form around against a Blues outfit facing even more pressure.

Carlton (6-8) hit a new low with a reality check on its finals aspirations as it was outplayed and outmuscled by a determined North Melbourne. Even coach Michael Voss conceded that the Blues were bullied by the young but rising Roos in a defeat that leaves them with little margin for error against the Power with the Magpies and Lions to come next.

Game shapers

Jason Horne-Francis was below his best as a shoulder concern perhaps limited his impact in Port Adelaide’s defeat to Sydney while he gathered his lowest disposal count in a full game over the past year. The Power need their powerful yet classy 22-year-old to quickly bounce back into form whether he spends more time closer to goal or focused on his role in the midfield.

Patrick Cripps has all but carried Carlton for much of his 221 matches across 12 seasons but once again needs to do some heavy lifting with his side under intense scrutiny after a demoralising defeat. The midfield powerhouse has seen his numbers drop after a record-breaking Brownlow Medal-winning season but can be relied on to lead the way with the Blues’ backs to the wall.

Early tip: Port Adelaide by 11 points

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Sydney v Western Bulldogs, SCG

Friday, June 27, 7.40pm AEST

GET YOUR SEATS Buy your tickets for Swans v Bulldogs HERE

Last time: Western Bulldogs 12.15 (87) d Sydney 7.6 (48), R20 2024

What it means

Sydney (6-8) almost shot itself in the foot as it dominated much of the game against Port Adelaide but failed to put it away due to a horror show in front of goal. The Swans got away with their wayward kicking against the Power but will face finer margins as they continue their late-season push against a Bulldogs outfit hoping to make its own tilt at a top-four spot.

The Western Bulldogs (8-6) outclassed Richmond on the way to a fifth thumping win of the season that lifted them back into the top eight for the first time in a month. The Dogs are still to prove their credentials against other finals contenders and while the Swans might be paying the price for a sluggish start to the season, they remain the type of big scalp likely needed on the run home.

Game shapers

Chad Warner showed few signs of being affected by the contract circus that surrounded him earlier this year before the midfield dynamo extended his stay with Sydney. The 24-year-old has remained one of the Swans' most reliable performers even as last year's runners-up made a worrying start to the season as he averages 22 disposals and a career-high five clearances ahead of his 100th game.

Marcus Bontempelli gave a firm reminder of his undeniable talents when bouncing back from a rare down day to gather 36 disposals and boot three goals against Richmond. In worrying signs for their opponents, the Dogs skipper is just getting going after an injury-interrupted start to the year as he seeks to guide his side to a eighth finals campaign in his time at the club and reaches 250 matches.

Early tip: Western Bulldogs by 17 points

Marcus Bontempelli celebrates a goal for the Western Bulldogs against Richmond in R15, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

Gold Coast v Melbourne, People First Stadium

Saturday, June 28, 1.20pm AEST

Last time: Gold Coast 18.12 (120) d Melbourne 8.14 (62), R3 2025

What it means

Gold Coast (8-5) was well on the way to proving that it could be a genuine top-four contender as it opened a commanding lead over Greater Western Sydney before being outplayed as the heat rose in the dying stages. The defeat pushed the Suns out of top eight for the first time this season and they now need to quickly bounce back and shake off any concerns of another horror run after a bye.

Melbourne (5-9) looked to have its season back on track with five wins in six matches before suffering three defeats on the trot then heading into a bye. The Demons now have little margin for error as they seek to keep their faint finals hopes alive but can turn to a strong record against the Suns after a 12-match winning streak was only broken when they met earlier this year.

Game shapers

Matt Rowell is arguably in career-best form as one of the top onballers in the game as he reportedly gets set to extend his stay with Gold Coast after arriving in 2019. The 23-year-old is averaging a career-high 25.2 disposals and the fourth-most clearances in the competition at 7.7 as a key component in the Suns' engine room that is hoping to power their first finals campaign.

Jack Viney made a stirring return for Melbourne after being sidelined for more than a month with concussion symptoms as he gathered 20 disposals to help lead the rearguard even in defeat to Port Adelaide. The Demons veteran is playing a greater variety of roles as his side take steps to regenerate its onball brigade while his leadership remains pivotal to turning its form around.

Early tip: Gold Coast by 22 points

Matt Rowell controls the ball during the round 15 match between Gold Coast and Greater Western Sydney at Engie Stadium on June 22, 2025. Picture: Getty Images/AFL Photos

Hawthorn v North Melbourne, UTAS Stadium

Saturday, June 28, 4.15pm AEST

Last time: Hawthorn 26.14 (170) d North Melbourne 7.4 (46), R24 2024

What it means

Hawthorn (9-5) made a huge statement when bouncing back from three consecutive defeats with a pair of triumphs over fellow top-four hopefuls before heading into a bye. The Hawks will hope to pick up where they left off while coming up against an improving Kangaroos outfit that looks very different to the one that they have beaten in their past six meetings by an average 50 points.

North Melbourne (4-1-9) got the big scalp it needed after its better form over the past two months as it blew away Carlton early then held on for a stirring victory. The Kangaroos will face a tougher test of their capabilities against the Hawks and will be well aware of the danger that the top-four contenders present after losing by more than 20 goals when they met in Launceston last year.

Game shapers

Dylan Moore has failed to hit the same heights after earning a maiden All-Australian blazer last year as he continues to be shifted between the midfield and forward line without having his usual impact. But the 25-year-old returned to form with arguably his best game of the year with 23 disposals and 13 tackles that helped set the tone in the win over the Crows.

Tom Powell can fly under the radar in an emerging midfield studded with top-10 draft picks though he is starting to have as much impact as his teammates since finding a regular role in the onball brigade. The 23-year-old had an equal career-high 34 disposals and eight clearances in the Kangaroos win over the Blues and only needs to add more goals to his game to be a weapon for years to come.

Early tip: Hawthorn by nine points

Dylan Moore marks the ball during the R13 match between Hawthorn and the Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium on June 5, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

Collingwood v West Coast, Marvel Stadium

Saturday, June 28, 7.35pm AEST

GET YOUR SEATS Buy your tickets for Magpies v Eagles HERE

Last time: Collingwood 15.13 (103) d West Coast 5.7 (37), R9 2024

What it means

Collingwood (12-2) quickly returned to form after its bye with a clinical victory over St Kilda that extended its lead at the top of the ladder while its main challengers slip up. The Magpies continue to bend games to their will through manic pressure while not losing the tackle count or conceding more than 100 points since their Opening Round wake-up call against the Giants

West Coast (1-13) has not quite been able to build on its shock win over St Kilda as it has since suffered four defeats since then before heading off for a bye. The Eagles have at least started to be competitive for longer periods across that stretch though they will want to improve on their poor record in opening terms to avoid being blown away by the red-hot Pies.

Game shapers

Brody Mihocek has swiftly moved from being unheralded and underrated to being a key component of the Collingwood attack since joining as mature-age rookie in 2018. The 32-year-old is arguably having his most impactful season yet as the focal point of the ladder leaders while averaging a career-high two goals a game and only failing to hit the scoreboard once this year ahead of his 150th match.

Tom McCarthy quickly proved he belongs at the elite level with a stunning debut as he gathered 31 disposals for the most by a West Coast player in their first game. The 24-year-old also showed that he can do more than just rack up possessions as his hard running and clean ball use looks like being a valuable addition to the rebuilding Eagles' backline for years to come.

Early tip: Collingwood by 37 points

Brody Mihocek celebrates a goal during the R13 match between Collingwood and Melbourne at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on June 9, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

Richmond v Adelaide, MCG

Sunday, June 29, 3.20pm AEST

Last time: Richmond 12.7 (79) d Adelaide 10.11 (71), R13 2024

What it means

Richmond (3-11) returns to the MCG to face Adelaide for the first time at the venue since 2018 and just the second meeting there since their Grand Final clash a year earlier. Much has changed for the Tigers since then with two more premierships before a slide down the ladder but they have continued to have a stronghold over the Crows with four wins in their past five matches.

Adelaide (9-5) went a long way to proving its top-four credentials with a win over Brisbane before handing back some of those credits when paying the price for misfiring near goal against Hawthorn then heading off for a bye. The Crows are known for their firepower but have also become miserly in defence while conceding an average of only 60 points in their past nine matches.

Game shapers

Toby Nankervis continues to stand up for the rebuilding Richmond as much as a bigger body among its influx of young guns as for being club captain. The ruck is even averaging a career-high 4.8 clearances a game as the Tigers are at their most competitive when an experienced onball brigade is up and running with Nankervis leading the way.

Izak Rankine continues to make the hefty price that Adelaide paid to secure his services from Gold Coast seem like a bargain as he spreads his talents across the midfield while remaining a weapon in attack. The 25-year-old livewire is averaging career-highs for 22.2 disposals and five clearances while still booting more than a goal a game as he reaches 50 electrifying matches for the Crows.

Early tip: Adelaide by 26 points

Izak Rankine celebrates a goal during the R14 match between Adelaide and Hawthorn at University of Tasmania Stadium on June 13, 2025. Picture: Getty Images/AFL Photos

Fremantle v St Kilda, Optus Stadium

Sunday, June 29, 3.10pm AWST

GET YOUR SEATS Buy your tickets for Dockers v Saints HERE

Last time: St Kilda 14.10 (94) d Fremantle 5.3 (33), R8 2025

What it means

Fremantle (9-5) has risen into top-four contention with five wins on the trot for the first time in more than three years after brushing aside a wounded Essendon. The Dockers have since enjoyed a 10-day break and should be well primed to chase a critical percentage-boosting win over a struggling Saints outfit that would bolster their finals chances.

St Kilda (5-9) showed improved form as it kept pace with Collingwood last week until the premiership fancy finally put its foot down when the match was on the line. The Saints should now be searching for greater consistency though can be bolstered by coming up against a side that it trounced by 10 goals just a couple of months ago.

Game shapers

Caleb Serong enjoyed a rollercoaster start to the season as dominant displays were mixed with reasonably quiet performances while the midfielder came under even more attention from opposition minders. It is no coincidence that the 24-year-old's sparkling return to form has coincided with the Dockers' five-match winning streak as he has averaged 32.6 disposals in that time.

Callum Wilkie has hardly put a foot wrong since clinching his first best and fairest award last season and earning an All-Australian blazer the year before. The gun one-on-one defender continues to be the critical pillar in the Saints' back half but will need to be at his best against the Dockers' wide spread of powerful and high-marking key forwards.

Early tip: Fremantle by 24 points

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