Man Utd vs Burnley Prediction: Will Red Devils Finally Secure First Win of 2025-26?

After Wednesday night’s shocking result at Grimsby Town, can Ruben Amorim get his first win of the season in Saturday’s game at Old Trafford? We look ahead to the clash with our Manchester United vs Burnley prediction and preview.

Man Utd vs Burnley: The Key Stats

Manchester United overcame Burnley in a convincing 67.9% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer.

United’s six points since the start of April are the fewest of any ever-present Premier League side.

Burnley have won just one of their last 25 visits to Old Trafford across all competitions.

Ruben Amorim will be desperate for Manchester United to secure their first competitive win of the season when they host Burnley on Saturday.

A shocking midweek exit in the League Cup to fourth-tier side Grimsby Town was arguably the worst result of the Portuguese manager’s career so far.

Although they fought back from 2-0 down to tie the game 2-2 in 90 minutes thanks to goals from Bryan Mbeumo and Harry Maguire, they went out to their League Two opponents following a penalty shootout, with Mbeumo missing the crucial spot-kick. It was the first time that they’ve ever been knocked out of the competition by fourth-tier opposition in their history.

That result means that Amorim has only won 35.6% of his 45 competitive matches in charge of Manchester United – the lowest win rate of any manager since Alex Ferguson retired as boss at the end of 2012-13.

In the Premier League, United were beaten 1-0 by Arsenal on Matchday 1 before sharing a 1-1 draw with Fulham last weekend, as Emile Smith Rowe cancelled out Rodrigo Muniz’s own goal. Bruno Fernandes blazed over a first-half penalty with Sunday’s game goalless at Craven Cottage.

Fernandes has had a hand in 10 goals in his last eight top-flight appearances against newly promoted teams (4 goals, 6 assists), so he will hope to make amends here. The United captain also created 41 chances across those appearances, with nine coming against Burnley in April 2024, despite not assisting in that game.

United have only gone three games without a win to start a Premier League campaign on three previous occasions, though each of those ended more positively than their recent fortunes. They won the league in two of those seasons (1992-93 and 2007-08), while they most recently did so in 2014-15, finishing fourth.

Their recent struggles leave little hope of a turnaround from Amorim’s side, though. Since the start of April, United have won the fewest points of any ever-present side in the top division (6 – W1 D3 L7)

In fact, Burnley would match the same number of points as United in the competition in that time if they win on Saturday, despite only being promoted from the Championship last season.

Central to much of United’s problems has been their form at Old Trafford, where they have lost eight of their last 13 Premier League matches (W3 D2). No ever-present team has lost more top-flight matches on home soil (Tottenham also lost eight) since the start of this run on 7 December last year.

While no upset can be ruled out by United’s drab form, they are, at least, unbeaten in their last 23 Premier League games against promoted sides (W20 D3). Their last such defeat came in a 4-1 loss at Watford in November 2021 that spelt the end of Ole Gunnar Solskjær’s reign.

Scott Parker’s side will make the short trip to the northwest full of confidence. Josh Cullen and Jaidon Anthony both scored one and set up the other in Saturday’s 2-0 win over Sunderland at Turf Moor.

The victory ended a run of four consecutive defeats in the competition, though Burnley have not won consecutive Premier League games since April 2022.

Manager Parker last won back-to-back top-flight games in April 2019 when in charge of Fulham. His only Premier League trip to United also came during that previous tenure, managing a 1-1 draw in May 2021.

English managers have won their last two away games at Old Trafford, with Eddie Howe and Graham Potter leading Newcastle United and West Ham to 2-0 wins last season. Unfortunately for Parker, there has never been an instance of English managers winning three in a row away at United in the Premier League.

If Parker is to change that record, he may look to the experience of Kyle Walker, who has won six games at United in this competition across spells with Manchester United and Tottenham. That is the joint-most of any player, along with former Man City teammates David Silva and James Milner.

An unlikely victory on Saturday would see Walker become the sixth player to achieve the feat with three different clubs. Brad Friedel, Emile Heskey, Nicolas Anelka, William Gallas and Milner are the others to do so.

In terms of team news, Lisandro Martínez remains as United’s only long-term absentee, while Noussair Mazraoui could return from a thigh injury. Zeki Amdouni, Manuel Benson, Connor Roberts and Jordan Beyer are all out for Burnley.

Man Utd vs Burnley Head-to-Head

Zeki Amdouni’s penalty three minutes from time cancelled out Antony’s 79th-minute opener the last time these two sides met at Old Trafford in April of the 2023-24 Premier League season.

Among teams to visit Old Trafford at least eight times in the competition, that draw leaves Burnley as one of only three sides to have avoided defeat in more than half (P9 W1 D4 L4), along with Chelsea and Manchester City.

However, United have lost just one of their last 25 home games against Burnley in all competitions (W15 D9).

They went down 2-0 in January 2020 after goals from Chris Wood and Jay Rodriguez; a victory that marked Burnley’s first-ever Premier League win at Old Trafford.

Man Utd vs Burnley Prediction

The Opta supercomputer backed a home win as Manchester United triumphed in a dominant 68.0% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.

Burnley were afforded just a 13.6% chance of leaving Old Trafford with all three points, with the draw slightly more likely at 18.3% in the same data-led sims.

Man Utd vs Burnley Predicted Lineups

Manchester United: André Onana, Leny Yoro, Matthijs de Ligt, Luke Shaw, Casemiro, Bruno Fernandes, Amad Diallo, Patrick Dorgu, Bryan Mbeumo, Mason Mount, Matheus Cunha.

Head coach: Ruben Amorim

Burnley: Martin Dúbravka, Kyle Walker, Hjalmar Ekdal, Maxime Estève, Quilindschy Hartman, Lesley Ugochukwu, Josh Cullen, Jacob Bruun Larsen, Hannibal Mejbri, Jaidon Anthony, Lyle Foster.

Head coach: Scott Parker

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 10,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off this weekend at Old Trafford, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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