FPL GW38 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Welcome to our FPL GW38 Scout Picks blog! Final gameweek of the 24/25 season – how time flies! It’s been a pleasure writing the Scout Picks posts this season, hopefully you’ve found this series interesting, engaging and insightful!We go into the final GW of the season 6 points ahead of the Official Scout picks team, with the scores currently sat at 21.5-15.5 to us. Let’s end the season on a high with another win!GW1 GW2 GW3 GW4 GW5 GW6 GW7 GW8 GW9 GW10 GW11 GW12 GW13 GW14 GW15 GW16 GW17 GW18 GW19 GW20 GW21 GW22 GW23 GW24 GW25 GW26 GW27 GW28 GW29 GW30 GW31 GW32 GW33 GW34 GW35 GW36 GW37 Total AAFPL Team 84 65 92 44 59 42 59 26 72 35 83 70 83 67 63 51 95 65 73 71 77 49 78 113 92 78 69 70 70 48 55 72 71 57 51 62 59 21.5 Official FPL Team 64 96 77 46 54 39 44 46 71 55 78 66 97 66 78 46 89 59 82 68 72 59 61 121 86 80 72 58 80 37 55 69 90 94 50 44 70 15.5Link to all our FPL GW38 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, free hit drafts, and more. Completely free to access as well!FPL GW38 FixturesFPL GW38 Scout PicksFPL GW38 Scout Picks – GoalkeeperRaya (5.5m) is our pick between the sticks for the final GW of the season, with Arteta’s side facing Southampton away on Sunday 25th May. Neither team has much to play for, with Southampton relegated long ago and Arsenal’s place in the top 4 confirmed by their win over Newcastle in FPL GW37. Unless City put 10 goals past Fulham then Arsenal will also finish second…Their form has been patchy of late, with the Gunners picking up 4 points in their last 3 games, losing to Bournemouth, drawing to Liverpool and beating Newcastle. Arteta will be keen that his side get back to winning ways to end the season on a high, and the players will be confident that they can make it happen, with Southampton picking up just 1 point across their last 3 games and scoring zero goals in the process.This record bodes well for Raya owners, who will have been pleasantly surprised by his clean sheet and seven point return against Newcastle in FPL GW37. The Spanish shot stopper will also be motivated to keep a CS in order to secure the golden glove, with him and Sels tied on 13 going into the final game of the season. With this individual award and team pride to play for, up against one of the worst sides in Premier League history, Raya is the safest pick this weekend!Further Read: FPL Gameweek 38 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & SellFPL GW38 Scout Picks – DefendersCompleting our defensive unit are White (6.1m), Konsa (4.5m) and Kerkez (5.2m)!In the same vein as Raya, White’s selection this week is mainly down to the fixture, though there are a couple of other contributing factors. With Saliba, Gabriel and Timber all out injured, Arteta’s will be forced to (probably) play a backline consisting of White, Kiwior, MLS and Califiori. While this unit is of course nowhere near as strong as Arsenal’s normal fully fit defense, it should be comfortably solid enough to keep out a Southampton side who have scored just 25 goals this season.All of the defenders mentioned above have fairly poor attacking numbers for defenders, especially when compared to teammates Saliba and Gabriel, so this was not taken into consideration. White is the most experienced of the group, and is least prone to rotation due to his positional versatility – Califiori and Kiwior have only ever played central and left, whereas White can also be deployed as a RB. Fundamentally Arsenal have a great fixture this weekend – any of their fit defensive assets will be good picks.Konsa up next, a player who shone in FPL GW37, scoring a huge 15 points against Spurs by scoring a goal and keeping a CS. That’s Villa’s third clean sheet in a row in the league, and their fifth in eight games – they’re on an incredible run from a defensive point of view! Konsa is absolutely nailed, and is an integral part of the defensive unit, making him the ideal candidate for this team. He actually had more than one chance to score against Spurs in GW37, taking 2 shots and creating 1 chance over the course of the 90′.As mentioned, Villa are on a crazy run in terms of defensive form, and face a side this weekend who have been in relegation form since Christmas – Manchester United. The Red Devils will be heartbroken by their loss to Spurs in the Europa League final in mid-week, and will be one of just four sides that didn’t get a full week’s rest/recovery between GW37 and GW38. Since the first of February, United have picked up just 10 points in the league, only 2 more than Leicester City during that same period, a side that were relegated in mid-April… Targeting Spurs and United fixtures has been a key feature of the Scout Pick teams in recent weeks, and we’re hoping to repeat the trick again this weekend!Finally, we have Bournemouth’s Kerkez. Bournemouth have actually only picked up 3 more points than United since the end of January, which is why they have become less and less of a feature in these teams… A fixture against already relegated Leicester was too good to turn down though! With Vardy having played his final game for the Foxes in FPL GW37, Leicester will have to turn to the likes of Ayew and Daka to lead the line for them against Bournemouth, a pair who have scored a combined 6 goals this season…Leicester, despite having scored more goals than Southampton, have accrued less expected goals than the Saints, and sit bottom of the table for that metric. Bournemouth on the other hand have a fairly mediocre defensive record, and sit mid-table for both goals conceded and xGA. Kerkez is the Cherries’ most attractive defensive asset due to his attacking potential, and habit of scoring bonus points.Further Read: FPL GW38 – Fixtures & Players to Target for Gameweek 38FPL GW38 Scout Picks – MidfieldersBowen (7.9m), Rogers (5.8m), Mbeumo (8.3m) and Saka (10.3m) make up our midfield for FPL GW38…Rogers is one of three midfield assets to retain their place in the AAFPL Scout Picks team this week, after putting in a decent shift and returning 6 points against Spurs in FPL GW37. He should have come away with more from that game, denied a goal only by a great save from Vicario early in the first half.8 Goals and 10 Assists for the season is a sensational record, especially for a player who was not thought to be a nailed-on starter going into the campaign. His price and his pre-season performances meant that he gained the tag of ‘Quasi-Essential-Budget-Enabler’, as his ownership soared to around 30%. With Manchester United up this weekend Rogers will be looking to end the season on a high – 10 goals and 10 assists would be very satisfying…Another player to retain their place in the team is West Ham’s Bowen, who faces Ipswich away from home on the final day of the season. The Englishman has scored in all 3 of his last premier league matches and has produced 6 goal involvements in his last 5 matches, blanking in zero. He’s in a rich vein of form and faces a relegated side – what’s not to love?Of course, the fact that West Ham have nothing to play for is not ideal, but their performances have been improving in recent weeks, and it looks like the players, and the management are looking to make a point – playing for pride more than anything else. Despite their tough start to the season, the Hammers are above both United and Spurs in the table, and will be looking to make sure it stays that way post GW38.Mbeumo is another player who is on fire at the moment, producing an attacking return in all of his last 3 premier league matches. Brentford’s talisman is now sitting on 19 goals and 9 assists for the season, that’s 28 attacking returns across 37 matches – wow! His underlying numbers have been fairly consistent in recent games, as he looks to help his side secure European football for the first time in their history…His sides opponent his weekend is Wolves, a team that have nothing to play for and that has lost all of their last 3 premier league matches. At this stage, form and ‘having something to play for’ are the two biggest factors when looking at fixtures, so targeting Brentford assets this weekend looks, on paper at least, to be a great strategy! Mbeumo and Wissa are the two best ones to go for, but if you’re looking for a differential, Schade could be your guy!Finally we have Saka. Completing the Arsenal triple up is the Gunners’ starboy Bukayo, who is undeniably in a patch of troubling form. Saka has not managed a goal involvement in the league since GW30 when he scored against Fulham. While his return from injury has been managed through careful control of his Premier League minutes since that point, his lack of output remains concerning.That being said, Arsenal have a fantastic fixture against Southampton in FPL GW38, and Saka is clearly Arsenal’s best attacking asset, regardless of form. Since the start of April, Saka has been averaging 0.78xG/90 and 0.37xA/90 – so despite scoring just one and assisting none, he continues to create opportunities for himself and for his teammates. Yes he’s out of sorts (and Arsenal arguably are too), but the fixture is just too good to ignore!Further Read: Top FPL GW38 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of DeadlineFPL GW38 Scout Picks – ForwardsOur team is completed by a front three of Wissa (6.9m), Watkins (9.1m) and Evanilson (5.8m)!Everything written about Mbeumo also applies to Wissa, though it could be argued that Wissa is in even better form! 1 goal and 1 assist against Fulham and 5 goal involvments in 4 games between FPL GW32 and 35 makes Wissa one of the most in form players in the league going into FPL GW38. He’s had an exceptional season scoring 18 and assisting 6, and will be looking to reach that illusive 20 goal mark on Sunday. Wolves have nothing to play for and Brentford have everything to play for – logic says we should target Brentford assets.Watkins retains a place in the team for FPL GW38 after putting in a great performance for the Scout Picks team in FPL GW37 and securing us a solid return of 10 points as captain. That’s back to back goal involvements in GW36 and GW37 – he wouldn’t do it again would he?…Villa still have a lot to play for going into the final game, with a win needed if they want any chance of securing champions league footy again next season. They’ll need to win and hope that one of the other teams between third and fifth drop points in order to secure an illusive place in the top 5. United on the other hand have absolutely nothing to play for and lost of european final in midweek – I know who I’d put my money on!Finally we have Bournemouth’s Evanilson! With the Cherries facing Leicester in FPL GW38, it felt like the perfect opportunity to reintroduce one of their attacking players into the team. Leicester are second bottom for expected goals against and third from bottom for goals against – they are one of the worst defenses in the league, and have only picked up three clean sheets all season.Evanilson is Bournemouth’s best attacker from an underlying data point of view, with the highest xG/90 in the squad and having accrued the second most xG over the course of the season. His goal return of 10 is bettered only by Kluivert. Of course it’s worth pointing out that Bournemouth, at this point, can no longer secure a place in a european competition, but I doubt that Iraola will want his side to take their foot off the gas. We’ve gone for Evanilson mainly due to the fixture – though his underlying numbers also back him up as a solid FPL option for this weekend.Further Read: FPL GW38 – Fixtures & Players to Target for Gameweek 38FPL GW38 Scout PicksFurther reads from AllAboutFPL ahead of FPL GW38:FPL Gameweek 38 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & SellFPL GW38 – Fixtures & Players to Target for Gameweek 38FPL GW38 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and MatchupsTop FPL GW38 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of DeadlineFPL GW38 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & MoreLink to all our FPL GW38 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!Thanks for reading the “FPL GW38 Differential Picks” blog. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for regular blogs. Also, follow our 200,000+ community on Instagram , Facebook , and Twitter to stay updated on regular Posts and FPL updates.What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 38 of the 2024/25 FPL Season?We’ll be covering differential picks, transfer targets, Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, scout picks, gameweek preview, captaincy metrics, FPL GW38 tips, and more. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for all our blogs. We’ll also be posting regularly about the same on our social media accounts, so follow us on Twitter , Instagram , Threads , and Facebook keep our notifications ON.Our content is always free, and if you like our content, do drop a comment, follow, subscribe, and support us. Your love is what keeps us going:)
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