Broncos vs Chargers Prediction, Odds and Picks

The Los Angeles Chargers get 3 divisional teams out of the gate and so far have picked up a pair of victories over the Chiefs and Raiders. LA seeks a 3-0 start overall and inside the AFC West with a home victory over the Denver Broncos on Sunday. The defense shut down Las Vegas on Monday night, holding the Raiders out of the end zone in a 20-9 victory as 3-point road favorites. QB Justin Herbert has thrown 5 TD passes in 2 games, including 2 against the Raiders. The Broncos took care of the Titans in the season opener, but fell apart late in last week’s 29-28 last-second defeat at Indianapolis. Following a penalty after the Colts missed the game-winning field goal, Indianapolis converted on its 2nd try to grab the victory as 1-point underdogs. QB Bo Nix threw 3 TD passes for the Broncos, 1 week after getting intercepted twice and getting held to 176 passing yards against Tennessee.

The Chargers finally play at SoFi Stadium after trips to Brazil and Las Vegas in the first 2 weeks. Los Angeles finished 5-3 at home last season, capped off by a 34-27 victory over Denver in Week 16 as the Chargers erased a 24-13 3rd-quarter deficit. The Broncos have slumped to a 1-6 mark in the past 7 road games. The lone win in this span came against the Raiders, as Denver has yielded 29 or more points in 4 consecutive away contests.

Since 2020, the Chargers are 4-1 at home against the Broncos with 3 of those wins by 7 points or less. Denver started last season at 6-1 against the spread on the road, but the Broncos have failed to cover each of their past 4 away games. The Chargers have been impressive so far through 2 games, but LA will no doubt be a huge public play on Sunday. Let’s look at the Broncos with the points on Sunday to grab the underdog cover against the Chargers and at least stay within a field goal.

Broncos vs Chargers prediction: Broncos +3 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Denver didn’t allow a touchdown in the season-opening victory over Tennessee. However, the Colts picked up 7 scores last week (2 TDs, 5 FGs) in the 29-28 win in the final seconds. The game easily went over the total of 43 points, marking the 6th Over in Denver’s last 8 road contests. The Chargers and Chiefs cashed the Over of 46.5 points late in the Week 1 thriller in Brazil, as LA held on for a 27-21 victory. The Under of 46.5 points was never in doubt on Monday night in Las Vegas as the Raiders were held to 3 FGs in a 20-9 setback to the Chargers.

Both matchups last season between the Chargers and Broncos finished over the total. Los Angeles won at Denver, 23-16, on a 37 total, followed by a 34-27 shootout victory by the Chargers in December on a 41.5 total. Justin Herbert’s completion percentage took a dip at home last season compared to his road numbers. At home, the Chargers’ QB completed 62.3% of his attempts, while converting on 69.1% of his passes on the road.

The Chargers began last season cashing 3 consecutive Unders at SoFi Stadium, but finished with 5 straight Overs. In the last 4 home games, Los Angeles has allowed 27 or more points each time. Los Angeles enters Week 3 with the 2nd-highest defensive grade according to PFF at 79.4. The Broncos rank 12th in that category and sit 4th in rushing defense. In spite of the two Overs last season between these AFC West rivals, this game could end up finishing lower-scoring than we expect. The December game closed at 41.5, but this total has moved up to 46 points, which feels like an overreaction.

Broncos vs Chargers pick: Under 46 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 45.5.

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