Two-point shots are affecting the game, but not in the ways you might expect

Looking back over the season, one statistic on two-pointers stands out. From 61 provincial and All-Ireland championship games so far in 2025, only three would have ended in a different result if there was no two-point arc.

Louth would have drawn against Kildare in the Leinster semi-final and had to survive extra-time, rather than continuing on their way to making history by ending a 68-year provincial drought.

Rather than being unceremoniously dumped out of the championship, Mayo would have cruised through to the last eight of the All-Ireland with a win over Donegal.

And finally, Galway would have beaten Derry in their group-stage classic in Celtic Park, rather than drawn. Admittedly, that result would have changed little about the state of the knockout rounds.

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Derry's Conor Doherty scores with the last kick of the game against Galway in their All-Ireland SFC round-robin match. Photograph: Lorcan Doherty/Inpho

And that’s it. Everything else would have remained just as it was if long-range efforts were still only worth a single point. Of course, this isn’t an exact science. Take Tyrone’s victory over Dublin last weekend for example; the seven-point margin at the end of the game meant that they would have won by two points regardless of the arc, but they stayed ahead throughout that game thanks to the two-pointers. It was only towards the end of the contest that they pushed their lead out.

Of course, a lot of these two-point efforts are only being attempted because of their heightened value. And that’s leaving out the effects of the misses (all the bloody misses) from miles out. Anyone who plays or watches club games will be able to tell you all about lads with notions finding a half a pocket of space outside the arc and thinking they’re Maurice Fitzgerald.

Even still, when an entirely new denomination of scoring is added to the game, it would be fairly logical to expect more of a direct impact on results. The fact is that while some teams do specialise in long-range shooting, it’s not usually enough of a sole factor to determine results. When there is a large gulf in two-pointers in a match, it’s usually just one part of a big gap in quality between the sides. For example, when Kerry beat Cork by 11 points at the end of May, the Rebels could hardly blame it solely on being outscored 7-3 in two-pointers.

On the other hand, the two-point rule, along with the other Football Review Committee changes, has had the effect of making football results read like hurling scores in many games. This isn’t just due to the skewing caused by two-pointers either, as the average number of scores per game has increased from 29.8 in last year’s football championship to 36.3 this season − a massive 21 per cent increase.

One of the most common critiques of the two-point rule has been the increased reward for free-kicks outside the arc. However, on average, there is less than two placed kicks of that type per game, which seems to indicate that they’re not as detrimental as could have been expected. Another major concern had been the possible devaluation of goals, but so far this year the rate of goals is very marginally up, perhaps a side-effect of defences pushing up to defend the arc.

Seán O'Shea steadies himself to kick a score for Kerry against Armagh at Croke Park on Sunday. Photograph: James Lawlor/Inpho

One side-effect that critics of the new rules warned of was the prospect of major drubbings due to the increased scoring. However, so far, the average margin of victory is down from 6.6 points to 6.2, and this is before what should theoretically be the closest few games of the season.

Out of this year’s semi-finalists, Meath had made a specialty of two-point shooting, averaging well over three a game, but their win over Galway saw the Royals fire a blank from outside the arc. With three, all from play, Donegal had their best showing from distance in the semis, as did Tyrone with five. That won’t scare Kerry though, as they also hit five against Armagh and have the highest average of the final four at 3.4 per game in the championship.

Regardless of how often they’ve been the difference maker so far this season, all of the remaining teams will be looking to gain an extra edge through kicks outside the arc. If the semis are as tight as they promise to be, then there may be more than three results changed by two-pointers by the end of the 2025 championship.

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