6 Overvalued Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Avoid on Sleeper

The 2025 NFL preseason is underway, meaning we’ve officially hit the start of redraft fantasy football season. Therefore, it’s time to do all the preparation fantasy players ignored over the past few months. Many factors go into fantasy players winning their redraft league every year. However, the top factor is arguably avoiding players that will bust or are overpriced.

Let’s look at six players who are overpriced draft values based on Sleeper ADP for redraft leagues.

Overvalued Fantasy Football Players to Avoid on Sleeper

Patrick Mahomes (KC) – ADP 53.7 | QB6

Fantasy players should draft Mahomes as the sixth quarterback off the board. However, he shouldn’t be a fifth-round pick and drafted two rounds before Baker Mayfield. Last year, Mahomes was the QB12, averaging 17 fantasy points per game. Furthermore, he averaged 1.6 passing touchdowns per game, a career low. Unfortunately, Rashee Rice is facing a likely six-game suspension in the middle of the season. After averaging 20.5 or more fantasy points per game in his first five seasons as the starter, Mahomes averaged 17.7 or fewer in back-to-back years.

Bucky Irving (TB) – ADP 19.5 | RB8

While he ended last season as a league winner, Irving is overrated as the RB8 in ADP. Last year, he finished as the RB13, averaging 14.4 PPR fantasy points per outing. However, Rachaad White is still a factor in the backfield, especially in the passing game. According to Fantasy Points Data, White had a higher route participation rate (44.5% vs. 32.9%), first-read target share (9.1% vs. 7.3%), and third-down route participation rate (61.9% vs. 10.2%) than Irving. He shouldn’t get drafted ahead of Josh Jacobs, Jonathan Taylor, and Chase Brown.

Joe Mixon (HOU) – ADP 57.1 | RB21

Last year, Mixon was the RB9 on a points-per-game basis, averaging 17.2 PPR fantasy points per outing, posting a higher average than Kyren Williams (17) and James Cook (16.7). However, his production fell off a cliff late in the season. He was the RB42 over the final three weeks, averaging 5.9 fantasy points per game and 3.8 yards per rushing attempt. Unfortunately, the veteran is dealing with a foot injury, putting his Week 1 status in question. Furthermore, the Texans have one of the worst offensive lines in the league.

Terry McLaurin (WAS) – ADP 39.1 | WR18

Hopefully, McLaurin and the Commanders can agree to a long-term extension soon, as the star receiver has been sitting out training camp. Even if he is back on the practice field tomorrow, fantasy players should avoid drafting him at his ADP. McLaurin finished last year as the WR14 on a points-per-game basis, averaging 15.8 PPR fantasy points per outing. More importantly, he is a clear-cut touchdown regression candidate after totaling 13 receiving touchdowns in 2024. By comparison, McLaurin had 25 receiving touchdowns over his other five seasons in the NFL.

Chris Godwin (TB) – ADP 82.2 | WR37

Unfortunately, Godwin is trending towards starting the year on the Physically Unable to Perform list after suffering a season-ending lower leg injury in 2024 that required two surgeries. Furthermore, he will likely spend a significant part of the year on a snap count because of the injury. More importantly, Tampa Bay has a plethora of options at wide receiver. Jalen McMillan had a strong finish to his rookie season, while first-round draft pick Emeka Egbuka has been the star of training camp. Therefore, Godwin has too much risk to warrant his ADP.

Jonnu Smith (PIT) – ADP 95.6 | TE11

Smith was the TE4 last year, averaging 13.1 PPR fantasy points per game, a career-high. However, fantasy players should avoid drafting him anywhere near his current ADP. Smith will be on the wrong side of 30 when the 2025 season starts. Furthermore, players rarely have a breakout year this late in their careers and maintain that level of success. More importantly, the veteran has never been a factor in Arthur Smith’s offense, averaging 3.7 targets and 7.7 fantasy points per game in three seasons with Smith as the playcaller.

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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.

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