Top Picks from the NFL Betting Splits for Monday October 13th

Week 6 of the NFL regular season wraps up tonight with a Monday Night Football doubleheader. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for both matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

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7:15 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills (-3.5, 50) at Atlanta Falcons

The Bills (4-1) just fell to the Patriots 23-20 last week, losing outright as 7.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Falcons (2-2) just held off the Commanders 34-27, covering as 2.5-point home favorites.

This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 5-point road favorite.

The public expects the Bills to get back on track and 78% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with Buffalo.

However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen the Bills fall from -5 to -3.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Falcons plus the points, as the line has moved in Atlanta’s direction despite being the unpopular play.

The movement toward Atlanta has been steady and consistent all week with no discernable buyback on the Bills. We’ve also seen the Falcons move from +4.5 to +3.5 over the past 24-hours, signaling late movement breaking toward the home dog as well.

The Falcons are the top “bet against the public” play of the night as they are only receiving 22% of spread bets at DraftKings in a heavily bet, nationally televised primetime game.

At DraftKings, Atlanta is receiving 22% of spread bets but 68% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Falcons are taking in 24% of spread bets but 77% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split in favor of the home dog.

Primetime dogs are 12-6 ATS (67%) this season and 153-132 ATS (54%) with a 3% ROI since 2020.

Atlanta also enjoys a rest advantage as the Falcons are coming off a bye week while the Bills played a divisional game against the Patriots.

Those looking to go contrarian and follow the sharp Falcons move would be wise to shop around for the best price. While the vast majority of the market is sitting at Falcons +3.5, we are still seeing DraftKings hang Falcons +4.5 (-115).

8:15 p.m. ET: Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders (-5.5, 49.5)

The Bears (2-2) just took down the Raiders 25-24, winning outright as 1.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Commanders (3-2) just upset the Chargers 27-10, winning outright as 3-point road dogs.

This line opened with Washington listed as a 4.5-point home favorite.

Sharps have laid the points with the Commanders, steaming Washington up from -4.5 to -5.5.

At DraftKings, the Commanders are taking in 55% of spread bets, indicating slight public support. However, at Circa Washington is receiving 65% of spread bets and 83% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split indicating heavy Vegas smart money laying the points with the home favorite.

A spread of 5.5 is considered “no man’s land.” As a result, bettors would be wise to pay attention to where the spread moves next. If we see it rise up to -6, that will indicate further Washington support. However, if it falls back down to -5 that will signal late money breaking back toward Chicago.

The Bears have value as an inflated dog in a heavily bet primetime game. Chicago also offers contrarian value as the Bears are only receiving 45% of spread bets at DraftKings and 35% of spread bets at Circa.

Primetime dogs are 12-6 ATS (67%) this season and 153-132 ATS (54%) with a 3% ROI since 2020. Conference road dogs getting 3.5-points or more are 261-225 ATS (54%) with a 3% ROI since 2019.

Chicago also enjoys a rest advantage as the Bears were off last week while the Commanders played on the road at Los Angeles.

Those looking to back the primetime dog could also consider the Bears in a teaser. By taking Chicago up from +5.5 to +11.5, savvy value-minded bettors can pass through the key numbers of 7 and 10.

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