NFL Week 3 Pick 'Em: Can Chiefs find first win?

Coming out of Week 2, we have numerous quarterback injuries: J.J. McCarthy (high-ankle sprain), Joe Burrow (Grade 3 turf toe), Jayden Daniels (knee injury), and Justin Fields (concussion).

Moreover, Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen appeared to break his nose last week, although he did return to the game.

Heading into Week 3, my top storyline is the Kansas City Chiefs being 0-2 for the first time in more than 10 years. They’re on the road against the New York Giants on Monday Night Football.

Can they finally get a win? Below, I’ll cast my predictions for each game on the Week 3 slate. These games, along with Super Bowl odds, are available at the BetMGM online sportsbook.

Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins

After two weeks of the 2025-26 NFL season, the Bills' odds to win the Super Bowl are +500, best in the league.

Following Week 3, it’ll stay that way after the Bills host the Dolphins and cover the spread against them.

Allen has had ample success against zone coverage this season, completing 74 per cent of his passes. This season, the Dolphins play zone on 66.4 per cent of their defensive plays.

As for Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa, he’s been dreadful against zone (which the Bills play on 77.3 per cent of their defensive plays) with three interceptions.

I predict the Bills will crush the Dolphins.

PREDICTION: Bills -12.5 (-110)

Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons play zone defence on 76 per cent of their defensive plays. In 2025, Panthers QB Bryce Young is 43 of 72 (59.7 per cent) for 383 yards (5.3 yards per attempt), one touchdown, and three interceptions against zone.

More specifically, the Falcons primarily play Cover-3, and Young is completing just 54.1 per cent of his passes for 195 yards (5.3 yards per attempt), one touchdown, and one interception against it.

Young is in for another bad afternoon.

PREDICTION: Falcons -6 (-110)

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans

The Texans are struggling with their offensive line and lacklustre running game, but this could be the spot where they finally secure a win.

The Texans play zone coverage on 83.5 per cent of their defensive plays. Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence has the following stats against zone: 58.3 per cent completion rate, 5.4 yards per attempt, one touchdown, two interceptions.

I trust the Texans' defence to lead them to victory in this divisional matchup against a middle-of-the-road signal-caller.

PREDICTION: Texans +2 (-110)

Minnesota Vikings vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Here we go: Bengals QB Jake Browning vs. Vikings QB Carson Wentz.

I’m going with the Vikings in this one. They’re at home, and I trust their defence far more than the Bengals, who’ve allowed at least 272 passing yards in each game this season.

Also, the Bengals run a fair amount of Cover-3, and since 2023, Browning has thrown five interceptions against it.

Wentz gets the win.

PREDICTION: Vikings -3 (-105)

Cleveland Browns vs. Green Bay Packers

So far this season, Flacco has a -0.16 EPA per pass play against zone coverage. This season, the Vikings run zone on 84.1 per cent of their defensive plays.

Not only that, but Flacco will have to deal with Micah Parsons coming off the edge for the Packers.

Under pressure this season, the Browns QB is 13 of 31 (41.9 per cent) for 134 yards (4.3 yards per attempt), one touchdown, and two interceptions.

Packers cover.

PREDICTION: Packers -8 (-110)

Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts

Colts QB Daniel Jones is playing outstandingly right now, completing 71.4 per cent of his passes for 588 yards (9.3 yards per attempt) and two touchdowns.

Conversely, Titans rookie QB Cam Ward has had a rough go of it to start the season.

That said, Ward has faced two great defensive fronts in the Denver Broncos and the Los Angeles Rams.

While Ward will play better here, the Colts get the win and cover.

PREDICTION: Colts -3.5 (-115)

Washington Commanders vs. Las Vegas Raiders

This is a tough game to call without knowing definitively if Jayden Daniels will play or not. His backup is Marcus Mariota.

Assuming it’s Mariota as Daniels recovers from a knee injury, I think the backup will do just fine.

Since 2023, Mariota has completed 23 of 30 passes (73.3 per cent) for 256 yards (8.5 yards per attempt) and one touchdown against zone coverage. The Raiders play zone on 82.9 per cent of their defensive plays.

I’d stick with the home team.

PREDICTION: Commanders -3.5 (-110)

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Rams

This is going to be a fantastic game, and I’m leaning toward the Rams covering the spread.

Their defensive line had double-digit pressures and multiple sacks in the divisional round last season against the Eagles. Now, they’re taking on a Philly team that has a mediocre passing game and an inefficient rushing attack. Running back Saquon Barkley is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry.

Conversely, Rams QB Matthew Stafford is playing fantastic football, completing 71 per cent of his passes and averaging 8.8 yards per attempt.

PREDICTION: Rams +3.5 (-115)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New York Jets

With Jets QB Justin Fields recovering from a concussion, Tyrod Taylor draws the start.

Over his career, Taylor has completed 61.1 per cent of his passes for 1,165 yards, eight touchdowns, and two interceptions against Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles.

The problem, though, is that his most recent matchup against him was in 2018, and he went 4 of 14 for 19 yards on 18 dropbacks.

This matchup will be too overwhelming for the Jets, especially since the Buccaneers only allow 76.5 rushing yards per game (fifth-least in the NFL).

Buccaneers cover.

PREDICTION: Buccaneers -7 (-105)

New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers have shown to be a beatable defence, allowing 394.5 yards per game (fourth). While this Patriots offensive line gives me pause, the Steelers' pass rush is without Alex Highsmith as he recovers from an injury.

Between the Steelers' defence and Drake Maye’s dual-threat ability, I’ll take the Patriots +1.5 at home.

PREDICTION: Patriots +1.5 (-105)

Seattle Seahawks vs. New Orleans Saints

This Saints offence is incredibly bland. Sure, QB Spencer Rattler had three touchdown passes last week, but none were against zone coverage. That’s important because the Seahawks play zone on 76.3 per cent of their defensive plays.

Against zone, Rattler averages a mere 5.3 yards per attempt.

This offence will struggle to move the ball.

PREDICTION: Seahawks -7.5 (-105)

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos

The Broncos run both zone and man concepts at nearly a 50/50 split.

That doesn’t really matter because Chargers QB Justin Herbert has performed well against both this season.

- Against zone: 51 dropbacks, 30 of 42 passing (71.4 per cent) for 403 yards (9.6 yards per attempt), two touchdown passes, zero interceptions, 0.42 EPA per dropback.

- Against man: 20 dropbacks, 13 of 18 passing (72.2 per cent) for 147 yards (8.2 yards per attempt), two touchdowns, zero interceptions, 0.23 EPA per dropback.

Chargers -3 is my prediction.

PREDICTION: Chargers -3 (-105)

San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals

This is a challenging divisional game and call to make, but I’ll side with the home team.

49ers QB Mac Jones looked great in Week 2, tossing three touchdown passes. Now, in Week 3, he’ll face another fairly squishy pass defence as the Cardinals allow over 255 passing yards per game.

Look for the 49ers to utilize RB Christian McCaffrey early and often in both the passing and running game.

PREDICTION: 49ers -1.5 (-105)

Chicago Bears vs. Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys QB Dak Prescott is playing excellent football right now and coming off a 361-yard passing performance.

Sure, this Cowboys defence leaves a lot to be desired, but I don’t trust Bears QB Caleb Williams to take advantage of that.

Over his career, Prescott has completed 70.7 per cent of his passes against a Dennis Allen-coached defence, and his Bears squad is without their best cornerback, Jaylon Johnson, indefinitely.

I’ll take the +1 and the Cowboys on the road.

PREDICTION: Cowboys +1 (-105)

New York Giants vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Can’t believe I’m writing this, but I predict the Giants cover this game.

Look, their run defence is horrific, allowing 177.5 yards per game (worst in the NFL), but the Chiefs' run game has been dreadful this season. On rush attempts, the Chiefs have a -3.2 EPA per designed run.

Over his career, Giants QB Russell Wilson has 11 touchdowns and five interceptions against a Steve Spagnuolo defence.

The Chiefs may win, but the Giants will cover the spread.

PREDICTION: Giants +6.5 (-105)

Baltimore Ravens vs. Detroit Lions

The Ravens have looked great through the first two weeks, but 5.5 points feels like too much, especially against this Lions offence. Remember, the Lions dropped 52 on offence a week ago.

The key for the Lions is to generate pressure on Ravens QB Lamar Jackson.

This season, when the Lions generate pressure, opposing QBs (Jordan Love and Caleb Williams) have a combined 16 dropbacks, 10 pass attempts, three completions, 26 passing yards, no touchdowns, and one interception.

Give me the points.

Click here to read article