Canelo vs. Crawford roundtable: Is it time for Canelo to pass the torch?

Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford is here and the TKO Boxing era has begun.

UFC CEO Dana White takes a long-awaited dive into the boxing world this Saturday and he’s swinging big as part of the team promoting the dream matchup between legendary boxing champions Alvarez and Crawford. Alvarez has been one of the biggest stars of his generation, but the undefeated Crawford has carved out his own legacy over the past decade and a win over Alvarez could signal a changing of the guard.

MMA Fighting’s Alexander K. Lee and Jed Meshew look ahead to the stakes of the megafight and what it could mean for the future of the industry.

1. Does Terence Crawford become the No. 1 name in boxing with a win?

Lee: The door is wide open here, because as great as Terence Crawford has been, he hasn’t broken into the mainstream at the same level of some of his contemporaries. Tyson Fury’s outsized personality is impossible to ignore, Oleksandr Usyk’s two-division dominance has captured the hearts of hardcore fight fans, and even Naoya Inoue has managed to build an incredible buzz around his fights despite rarely competing in the U.S. Despite arguably being the No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter in the world, Crawford somehow still gets lost in the shuffle.

But yes, if he beats Canelo in convincing fashion, that’s the nudge he needs to finally get the recognition he deserves. At 37 (38 by the end of the month), it’s unlikely that Crawford will hold on to this torch for long, but if he can maximize his earning potential in the twilight of his career, more power to him.

Meshew: I’m going to say no, just because if he wins, “Bud” might just hang them up. I mean, he already has basically nothing to prove, and this fight is going to make him extremely rich. Even if he beats Canelo, I don’t think anyone would like his chances long term at super middleweight, so what would he keep fighting for?

Walk away from fighting at 42-0, the top pound-for-pound fighter in the world, and probably the best boxer of this generation. That should be more than enough for anyone. And then he can make his way into the nonsense fighting ring, and take on Jake Paul or Mike Tyson or Floyd Mayweather in “exhibition” fights where he makes millions of dollars and doesn’t have nearly the same level of risk.

2. From a viewership standpoint, how big will this fight be?

Lee: Maybe I’ve been in a bubble (or out of the country), but doesn’t it feel like there just hasn’t been any buzz for this one? The whole operation has felt kind of thrown together with the date and location being switched up at one point and a completely forgettable undercard (name one other fight off the top of your head, you can’t). We should be more excited! It’s frigging Canelo vs. Crawford!

As jazzed as we’re all likely to be by the time fight not rolls around, I can’t see the hype around this one coming close to critical mass. Even setting the Netflix viewership bar well below the absurd heights of Tyson vs. Paul, I think Dana and Turki will end up being slightly disappointed when the numbers come in. Then again, if they pull in 50-60 million live viewers for the main event, that has to be considered a home run still, right?

So I’m predicting hit for TKO, but the kind of event that will still resonate a year from now? Hmm…

Meshew: I truly have no idea. AK is right that this doesn’t feel like it has the same hype as Tyson vs. Paul, but of course it doesn’t. And it still does have some juice. I always defer to the “Mom Test” where I know a fight is a big deal if normal people in my everyday life ask me about it, and I’ve already had some of that with this. Plus, it’s on Netflix, which basically everyone has. So I think it will be decently big.

But I don’t think it will do near the 50-60 million number. This will be a big boxing event with some crossover appeal, but it’s also happening on Saturday night, and lord knows that most people who are randomly on Netflix and would watch a fight, are probably watching college football instead (LSU vs. Florida and Texas A&M vs. Notre Dame are next weekend).

3. How will the fight play out?

Lee: Canelo has (justifiably) earned a reputation for playing it safe and not pushing the pace in recent years, but I’m optimistic Crawford will bring out the best in him. And also beat him.

Crawford is giving up a ton of size here, so he’ll have to be at his tricky, switchy best to throw Canelo off. Neither guy is known for being the fastest starter, so I’m curious to see who tries to steal the early rounds in what will likely end up being a close fight on the cards.

Give me Crawford to outwork Canelo and land the best punches of the fight, even with the Mexican star likely to surge in rounds 10, 11, and 12. And since this is boxing, I’ll also go with the obvious prediction that we’ll have controversy on the cards. That’s got to be -1000 at least in the books.

Meshew: I’ll be incredibly shocked if Canelo doesn’t win, and I expect him to win relatively easy. I love Terence Crawford and think he’s the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world, but he is giving up a massive amount of size here, and he’s getting older. Crawford didn’t even look amazing against Israel Madrimov, and Canelo is a much better fighter, and a bigger one.

At the end of the day, the simplest answer for predicting a Canelo fight is ask, “Did Canelo accept this fight?” Because if he did, he’s probably winning. There’s a reason Canelo hasn’t fought David Benavidez, because he might not win. And this stage of his career is all about managing risk for Canelo. For Crawford, the opportunity is too big to pass up, but for Canelo, this is prize fighting: biggest payday for least risk.

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