Asia Cup 2025 Scenarios: How Pakistan can still qualify for final, face India for 3rd time

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India and Bangladesh have commenced their Super Fours journey in Asia Cup 2025 with victories, India defeated Pakistan by six wickets, fueled by Abhishek Sharma's explosive 74. Bangladesh secured a four-wicket win against Sri Lanka. Pakistan face a must-win situation against Sri Lanka to keep their final hopes alive.

India's captain Suryakumar Yadav, left, walks past Pakistan's captain Salman Agha at the toss. (AP Photo)

NEW DELHI: India and Bangladesh have made winning starts to their Super Fours campaigns in the ongoing Asia Cup 2025 in the UAE, but the race to the final is still wide open. Defending champions India extended their dominance over arch-rivals Pakistan with a six-wicket victory on Sunday, a week after beating them in the group stage. Bangladesh, meanwhile, handed Sri Lanka a four-wicket defeat on Saturday.Go Beyond The Boundary with our YouTube channel. SUBSCRIBE NOW! The results leave India and Bangladesh leading the Super Four standings with two points each. India hold the edge with a superior net run rate of +0.689, while Bangladesh sit at +0.121. Pakistan and Sri Lanka are yet to open their accounts, but with four games left in this stage, both remain in contention for a spot in the summit clash.

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For Pakistan, the path is straightforward but steep: they must win their next two matches, first against Sri Lanka on Tuesday and then against Bangladesh on Thursday. Two victories would give Salman Agha’s men four points, potentially setting up a blockbuster third showdown with India in the final next Sunday.

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If Pakistan defeat Sri Lanka on Tuesday, it will knock the Islanders out of contention after two straight losses. Table-toppers India and Bangladesh are set to clash on Wednesday, and given India’s dominant form, they are widely expected to book a spot in the final unbeaten. That would leave Pakistan needing to overcome Bangladesh in their last Super Four fixture on Thursday — effectively turning it into a virtual semi-final. In such a scenario, the final Super Four match between India and Sri Lanka on Friday would carry little significance in terms of qualification for the title clash. Should this scenario unfold, fans would witness three consecutive weeks of India-Pakistan clashes — an unprecedented streak in a long while. India’s latest win over Pakistan was set up by opener Abhishek Sharma, who blazed 74 off 39 balls, and Shubman Gill, who contributed 47 in a century stand. Despite a brief wobble in the middle order, Tilak Varma and Hardik Pandya saw the team home with ease. Earlier, Shivam Dube’s double strike curtailed Pakistan’s promising start, exposing the frailties in their batting depth. Pakistan, however, showed flashes of fight. Sahibzada Farhan’s 58 and Saim Ayub’s return to form after three ducks were encouraging signs. Yet the bowling, led by Abrar Ahmed, has failed to contain stronger opponents. As Sri Lanka and Pakistan square off in a virtual do-or-die clash on Tuesday, the equation is simple: survival. For fans, though, the bigger dream lingers — a third straight India-Pakistan clash to decide the 2025 Asia Cup champions.

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