Does Test cricket need a two-tier system?

There have been three different winners in the WTC since it's inception in 2019 ©Getty

To start off, the empty stands in Ahmedabad should give an answer. It was on expected lines though, for West Indies have been incredibly underwhelming for quite some time now and have been no match for India for the last two decades. They have now lost all six away Tests to India since 2013 - four by an innings and one by 10 wickets with five of these six games finished within three days. Even after a generous first innings declaration and a sub-optimal decision to enforce the follow-on, West Indies were no match to India's might in Delhi.

As for Test cricket followers, especially in India, this series was a major downgrade from what they witnessed last when the team played in whites. A gripping five-match Test series in England fittingly ended in a draw, with nail-biting finishes at Lord's and The Oval alongside a hard-fought draw in Manchester. That was after England gunned down 371 in the series opener at Headingly, and even the only one-sided contest in the series - a 336-run defeat for the hosts at Edgbaston - featured a thrill-a-minute counterattack from Harry Brook and Jamie Smith.

However, such contests have largely been limited to featuring select teams, while the matches elsewhere have been largely one-sided.

The World Test Championship was conceptualized to add relevance to Test cricket, the format suffering a fading interest across the globe with the rise of T20 leagues in the last decade. With the WTC inception, Tests have become more result oriented than ever, and the first three editions have had three different winners. As teams went a step ahead to try and ensure maximum home advantage, the tactic in fact narrowed down the gulf between hosts and the visiting teams,none as spectacularly in 2024. And yet, all of that hasn't quite been enough, and the idea of a two-tier system has been floating around, with two divisions of six teams each and a promotion and relegation for one or two of them after every cycle.

What prompts the idea of a two-tier system?

It is no secret that England, Australia and India have been the driving forces in Tests, with any series featuring two of them gaining maximum interest. The 2024 Boxing Day Test between hosts Australia and India in Melbourne recorded a whopping 373,691 five-day attendance. It's a rather unfair comparison, but in contrast, Ahmedabad witnessed a meagre attendance earlier this month. The England vs India Test series earlier this year was recorded as the most watched Test series across digital platforms. The matches were well attended too, with the tickets for the second Test in Birmingham sold out well in advance.

The giant screen at the MCG showcasing the record attendance of 373,691 spectators across the five days ©Getty

"We're very lucky in England, and we musn't take it for granted, that every Test match here is nearly sold out," Nasser Hussain said in conversation alongside Michael Atherton, Ravi Shastri and Dinesh Karthik on Sky Sports, adding that Test cricket in the country doesn't necessarily need a WTC context to add to its appeal.

Moreover, there's been a clear gap between the top teams and the rest since the WTC was first introduced in 2019. If a two-tier system were to be placed as per the current ICC Test Rankings today, Australia, South Africa, England, India, New Zealand and Sri Lanka would make the top-tier. These teams combined have had an extremely one-sided record against the other six.

Top 6 vs bottom six in Tests since WTC inception in 2019

Matches Won Lost Draw W/L 98 68 13 17 5.23

*includes 11 Tests which didn't have WTC status.

Top six: Australia, South Africa, England, India, New Zealand and Sri Lanka

Bottom six: Pakistan, West Indies, Bangladesh, Ireland, Afghanistan and Zimbabwe

Among those 13 wins for the lower-tier teams, eight have been to Pakistan - either in Sri Lanka where they've historically had a good record - or at home, at times on tailored pitches, as was the case against England last year. Of the 68 wins for the top six teams, 20 came by an innings margin (29.41%). Of the 17 successful run-chases, 13 were completed with more than seven wickets to spare, featuring seven 10-wicket wins, and the average winning margin in other 32 matches was 202 runs, 30 of them had a 70-plus margin, 15 in excess of 200. In these 97 head-to-head Tests, the bowling average for the top tier teams is 25.44, while it's 41.03 for the bottom six. The number of individual hundreds reads 119 vs 68.

Pakistan and West Indies' decline

Pakistan, West Indies and Bangladesh were the bottom three in the last two WTC cycles; Pakistan finished fifth in the inaugural one, the other two again languishing at the bottom.

Pakistan, West Indies and Bangladesh in WTC (overall, across four cycles)

Team Matches Won Lost Draw W/L ratio Pakistan 40 13 20 7 0.65 West Indies 44 10 28 6 0.35 Bangladesh 33 5 25 3 0.20

vs top six teams

Team Mat Won Lost Draw W/L Pakistan 31 8 16 7 0.50 West Indies 34 3 25 6 0.12 Bangladesh 22 2 17 3 0.12

If the same six-team grouping (refer previous section) is taken and pinned against each other between January 2011 and June 2019, the win-loss ratio is nearly halved at 2.67 (80 wins, 29 defeats and 29 draws). While five of the bottom six teams haven't really been a match of the top ones (Afghanistan and Ireland only getting a Test status in 2017), Pakistan have had a steep decline since they shortly achieved a No.1 ranking post the 2-2 drawn series in England in 2016.

Post that they have won 23, lost 35 and drawn eight Tests. Against SENA teams, they won seven, lost 26 and drew four, not to forget the 0-2 defeat to Bangladesh at home last year. Pakistan have not won a Test in SENA countries since the inception of WTC in 2019, losing ten of the 12.

As for West Indies, it's been a struggle across formats. They missed out on the 2023 ODI World Cup, having qualified in 2019 only after finishing runners-up in the qualifiers a year earlier. The last three T20 WC campaigns have been far from inspiring (they missed out on Super 12s in Australia in 2022). As for Tests, the India series was just an extension to a rather dismal run. That Shamar Joseph inspired victory at the Gabba last year, now seems an odd flash in the pan post which they have lost 11 out of 14 Tests. The two wins have come against Bangladesh and Pakistan, along with a rain-affected draw against South Africa. The nadir came when they lost 0-3 to Australia at home, a first instance of them getting whitewashed at home in a series of three or more matches. They have crossed 200 just twice in their last 15 innings coming into the Delhi Test with a highest total of 253 and have not survived beyond the first new ball even once in this period, a run that features the all-time second lowest all-out total of 27 against Australia.

How viable is the idea

"We wouldn't want, as England, if we go through a fallow period, to fall into Division Two and not play Australia or India. That simply couldn't happen. Common sense needs to prevail," ECB chair Richard Thomson said recently. It's a fair point indeed, for these three teams have collectively produced three of the best series in recent times - India's come from behind win Down Under in 2020/21, the 2-2 drawn Ashes series in 2023 and India's recent England tour.

The uneven split in number of Tests

Furthermore, there have been 13 bilateral Test series featuring 4 or more Tests since the start of the 2018 English summer, only one featuring a team outside of the Big Three - England in South Africa in 2019/20. South Africa, the current WTC title holders, last played a three-match bilateral series in 2022/23 while for the inaugural WTC champions New Zealand, only four of the 22 series have featured three Tests since August 2019. In fact, the last time a series that had three (or more) Tests that did not feature either of the Big 3 was back in 2018/19 when Pakistan toured South Africa.

India, Australia and England play significantly more Tests than the other teams, who have largely featured in two-Test series (sometimes three), as mentioned earlier.

Team Matches 5-Test series 4-Test series 3-Test series 2-Test series One-off England 78 6 2 10 4 2 India 63 4 3 3 10 2 Australia 57 4 2 5 6 2 New Zealand 47 - - 4 17 1 West Indies 47 - - 4 17 1 Sri Lanka 44 - - 1 20 1 South Africa 43 - 1 4 13 1 Pakistan 42 - - 5 13 1 Bangladesh 40 - - - 17 6 Zimbabwe 21 - - - 8 5 Afghanistan 9 - - - 2 5 Ireland 7 - - - 1 5

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