Ten questions ahead of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp this weekend

1. What kind of Arc have we got this year?

If you had to pin it down to one aspect it would have to be the openness. 5/1 the field feels about right. The crème de la crème it is not. In fact, looking at Timeform’s top Flat horses in Europe list you have to go down to the joint eighth, Giavellotto, to find an Arc runner. That doesn’t make this year’s renewal any less compelling. Fillies look to be leading the way. There are lots of interesting three-year-olds. The Japanese challenge looks strong. And it might not be run in the sort of bog we have come to expect in Paris at this time of year. Add all those ingredients together and we could potentially have a fabulous renewal. And if not at the very least it’s a good puzzle.

2. Who deserves to go off favourite?

It has to be Minnie Hauk. A thriving three-year-old filly in the Arc is a dangerous rival indeed and on her best form she already deserves to be ahead of Aventure in the pecking order for my money. It was the ease of her Yorkshire Oaks success that stood out, for all that her main market rival Estrange would’ve preferred softer conditions than those she encountered on the Knavesmire. I just think David O’Meara’s filly is very good and Minnie Hauk dismissed her without fuss staying strong to the line in the style of an above-average Oaks winner. Aventure is remarkably consistent and ran well when second last year, but I’d say she’ll be vulnerable to anything approaching top class and she had nothing to beat in the Vermeille after Whirl bombed out spectacularly.

3. How are conditions shaping up?

France Galop gave a detailed update on the ParisLongchamp ground on Monday, a GoingStick reading of 7,2 indicating Good to Soft while the penetrometer suggested it was a tad easier than that. No watering is scheduled to take place, the grass will be cut to a height of 9cm for the final time on Friday and the weather is set fair bar the emerging threat of a few showers on Saturday. [Although the Norwegians are predicting a bit more than that according to Dave Ord]. Obviously, trying to get a handle on ground conditions in advance has its difficulties and Longchamp can spring a few surprises in that regard, what with its proximity to the river Seine and the woods in the Bois de Boulogne, but I would estimate the ground will be something like Good to Soft. Unless more rain than is expected comes in. At this stage, though, the sort of very soft ground a clarted Alpinista won in a few years ago looks very unlikely. Hopefully. As I refuse to pack a cagoule.

4. Is this finally the year for Japan?

There are some big stories bubbling away ahead of this year’s Arc and this is one of them. It could well be Japan’s time. It’s 56 years since they first turned up at Longchamp with a Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe hopeful and after near misses with El Condor Pasa, Deep Impact, Nakayama Festa and Orfevre (twice) for a long time it felt like not if but when. Over the last decade that inevitability has diluted somewhat, but here we are in an open renewal with a three-strong Japanese challenge with each one of the trio winning their prep races in France. You couldn’t rule any of them out with confidence. And perhaps Alohi Alii, under seven-time Japanese champion jockey Christophe Lemaire, looking for his first Arc win, is the most underestimated judging by how he has acclimatised with his eyebrow-raising Prix Guillaume d’Ornano win at Deauville where the Prix Niel winner Cualificar was well beaten in third.

5. Does Kalpana remain Britain’s best hope?

I think she probably does. Cards on the table I have backed Andrew Balding’s filly antepost and the pessimist in me says she’ll be undone on ground that probably won’t be typical of lots of recent Arcs. I certainly backed her with a Parisian bog in mind. But I am expecting her to be in the sort of nick we saw her in at Ascot for the King George rather than the filly that was brushed aside by Giavelloto in the September Stakes at Kempton. After all, it really has been about the Arc for her all year long and after she bloomed in the autumn on Champions Day last year there is hope that she can reach a level that puts her right in the mix again in this. It’s been a bit of a rollercoaster first season in the Juddmonte job for Colin Keane and Kalpana being beaten under him twice at odds-on would be amongst the lower moments, but there’s a chance she could redeem herself in spectacular fashion for him here. And she doesn’t need an absolute bog, does she?

6. Is Los Angeles a forgotten horse?

Maybe a little. When you look at his third in last year’s Arc he split the Wertheimer pair Aventure and Sosie and there’s a lot more love for those two than Los Angeles in the build-up to Sunday. Of course, there are good reasons for that. Not only is he quite obviously the stable second string to Minnie Hauk for Aidan O’Brien but he has blotted his copybook somewhat this season, particularly when beaten at 4/7 in the Group 3 Royal Whip at the Curragh in August in what was meant to be a confidence-boosting exercise. Perhaps he just went to the well too many times over 10 furlongs. He looked a proper stayer at three yet has only run over 1m4f once since last year’s Arc; last time out in the Prix Foy when beaten by Byzantine Dream. If he comes forward from that he will be running to something like his best form, in which case he would look a big price at 33/1. But a regression couldn’t be ruled out, either, making him a risky proposition.

7. Which French colt can lay down a bold challenge?

After Waldgeist, Sottsass and Ace Impact the French-trained colts have recovered their reputation a little in the Arc in recent years after a sustained period without success and there are five in with a chance this year, albeit at big prices. Indeed, Andre Fabre’s Sosie is the shortest of the quintet at a best of 11/1, with the other four 16/1 and bigger. Fabre is going for his ninth win in the race and Sosie recovered from his blip in the Coral-Eclipse with a better effort behind Byzantine Dream in the Prix Foy last time. Not only that but he looked an improved model at four earlier in the campaign, so you can see why the market favours him out of the French five, but I’d be drawn to the less exposed colts amongst the home team. Daryz has yet to race beyond 10 furlongs but is very much bred for 1m4f, while Leffard is a dead interesting longshot after being fresh in his trial after which he was pushed out to massive prices. I wouldn’t be quick to dismiss his Grand Prix de Paris form and I felt he actually shaped with some promise in the way he finished off in the Niel after things didn’t go his way.

8. What about Graffard’s other two?

I’d be most keen on Daryz out of the Francis-Henri Graffard trio but we do have to acknowledge anything he runs after a stellar season. Gezora’s threat isn’t in what she has done but what she might do, for all that she is a Prix de Diane winner. How strong that French Oaks was this year I’m not sure, but she backed it up with a good run behind Aventure in the Vermeille, her first run in almost three months and first ever run at 1m4f. The hope is in her potential. As for stablemate Quisisana, she’s even more of a wildcard being a lightly-raced five-year-old but she has come into her own since June, particularly when winning the Prix Jean Romanet, a ‘Win and You’re In’ race for the Arc. After eight starts in three years she’s clearly not been the easiest to train, but she clearly has bags of talent, for all this is another significant step up.

9. How do you think you’ll bet in the Arc?

Having backed Kalpana antepost I’ll be waiting for the draw and final field before adding any more bets. Having a better idea of conditions will certainly help, too. I think Minnie Hauk deserves to be favourite, but in an open year she’s not got bags in hand by any means and I’ll probably take her on. If it looks like Alohi Alii could get a nice prominent pitch early without too much pace pressure against him he’s on the radar. If conditions dry out Giavellotto has to come into calculations under Andrea Atzeni. If the rain comes then Estrange suddenly emerges into the picture. If I think it’s worth getting the bat out I could easily side with Leffard. Like I said at the start, it’s open, and there are quite a few factors that need clearing up yet.

10. What are you most looking forward to away from the Arc?

Well I’m hoping the expenses stretch to the €80 required for the ‘Sommet de l’Arc’ where you can watch the racing from the sky, as that looks a good way to view the action! I wouldn’t mind being up there for the Prix de l’Abbaye, as that will probably be the best view in the house of the sprint track. Hopefully we get to see Jm Jungle strut his stuff in that race for John & Sean Quinn, as it has looked the obvious target for him ever since he won at Goodwood and he should lay down a bold bid granted a bit of luck with the draw. British-based trainers have a tremendous record in the Abbaye, including Quinn himself after Highfield Princess’s 2023 success, and I wouldn’t hold Jm Jungle’s draw-induced Nunthorpe defeat against him. Hopefully he fares better in that regard in Paris. And if the Norwegians are right, he’ll absolutely love any juice in the ground.

More from Sporting Life

Free bets

Racecards

Fast results

Full results and free video replays

Horse racing news

Horse racing tips

Horse racing features

Download our free iOS and Android app

Football and other sports tips

Podcasts and video content

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.

Click here to read article